For the attention of Governments
The Experts appreciated the need for setting up a Food and Agriculture Information System (FAIS) on the pattern of the FAOSTAT in countries for analysis of food and agricultural situation for food policy. They recommended establishing a computerized database for storage, updating and retrieval of data on food policy and also linking it with sources of data at the national and sub-national levels.
The Experts observed that many gaps existed in the crop and livestock estimates published by FAO. It was important that countries provide official estimates on these parameters as soon as possible to replace or update estimates in FAO publications.
It was felt that the crop forecast formed an essential component of food security system and it was recommended that the system should be extended and formalized to district level so that authenticity of the forecasted figures could be improved. It was also recommended that along with the crop forecast, data on food situation could be additionally collected in order to address food security concerns in a timely manner.
The Experts noted the utility of marketing and price statistics for food policy. The market statistics were useful for policy makers, traders, consumers as well as producers. The coverage, quality and scope of marketing statistics needed to be improved. In particular price data should be collected from areas prone to food shortages.
To produce reliable and timely agricultural statistics, countries should use modem computing and processing facilities, if they have not yet done so.
The Experts observed that problems related to data gaps, on one hand, and duplication on the other, may be addressed by closer coordination between the statistical system and the policy makers.
It was noted that the low consumption figures reported for Indonesia could have been the result of real shift in consumption patterns or by bias generated by consumption studies done on low income groups as part of the process to identify food insecure groups. In relation to the last issue, the Experts recommended that a national team for food security monitoring be formed in countries with the primary function of tracking the progress of food security programs.
The Experts recommended that a network of data support system should be established; accuracy and reliability particularly of (crop) area statistics must be improved for right decisions.
The Experts recommended creation of a high level body for instituting a dynamic information collection and dissemination center which should be developed as electronic data preservation and supply bank to improve data availability for food policy.
The Experts observed that small size of plots used in crop cutting experiments could result in over-estimation of yield. It was recommended that sampling errors of yield estimate be calculated in order to determine the appropriate number of crop cuts required for estimating yield with given accuracy.
The Experts were informed that the process of converting the food consumption data from the Household Income and Expenditure Survey (HIES) into calories and tabulating the results in the form of distributions by household per caput calorie consumption was not normally undertaken in most countries. Thus for the purpose of estimating the prevalence of food inadequacy using the FAO methodology (which involved the specification of two elements: the distribution of household per caput calorie consumption and the minimum per caput calorie requirement of the "average individual" in the population) it was recommended that the respective national statistical organizations carry out the required data processing and tabulation work on a regular basis.
In view of the irregularities noted in the tabulated frequency distribution of HIES data, the following recommendations were made: (i) consideration be given to fit a theoretical distribution, in particular the lognormal distribution, to the tabulated distribution data; and (ii) the parameters of the theoretical distribution be estimated through the use of an approach that dampens the effect of extreme values which is the case of the lognormal distribution, e.g. probit analysis might be considered.
The Experts recommended that for estimating prevalence of food inadequacy, data on both quantity consumed and monetary expenditure should be collected to facilitate checking the consistency of data.
The Experts appreciated the efforts to install an information network at country level to replicate the initiatives of FAO's WAICENT and FAOSTAT at global level. The Experts noted that WAICENT and FAOSTAT were now widely used and accepted despite initial reservations regarding their installation at FAO. Based on this encouraging development, the Experts recommended that initiatives be made towards installing a National Agricultural Information Network (NAIN) in member countries in the Asia and Pacific Region.
The Experts also noted that issues on ownership and duplication of data must be resolved before a NAIN could be set up. Regarding content, the Experts recommended that clear information on source and nature of data items in the NAIN be given to users so that they could make their own judgements as to the quality of data in the Network. The Experts recommended further that information in a NAIN should be made available to other countries in the region.
For the attention of FAO
It was recommended that FAO continue to assist in improving agricultural statistics in countries where agricultural statistics system was weak, and to field crop/food assessment missions as and when necessary.
For the attention of Governments and FAO
The Experts recommended that studies should be undertaken on use of marketing statistics for forecasting of prices.
It was noted that assessment of losses in grain post-production systems was an integral part of the food policy issue and that there was paucity of information about crop losses. Recommendation was made to fill data gaps existing in post-production losses.
As there were various kinds of post-production losses and collecting information on each of them was not possible, it was recommended that type of post-production loss incurred be translated into monetary terms to keep track of those that were economically significant. In view of the importance of other cereals in contributing to food security, the assessment of losses should cover the other major crops, in addition to rice.
