12. The document No. STAT/FOOD/3 “Agricultural Statistics for Food Policy” was presented by Mr. B. Goel. The role of agricultural statistics in food policy was elaborated, along with issues relating to food policy, its relevance to developing countries in the region, objectives of meeting the requirement of adequate and safe food including the accessibility and affordability.
13. It was mentioned that system of agricultural statistics for food policy should aim at assessing requirements and availability of food and plan production and supply for meeting food requirements. It was particularly important for low-income food deficit countries. It should also cover access to adequate and safe food and an early warning system for food security.
14. The Experts were apprised that detailed analysis of food and agriculture situation was essential for food policy. All aspects viz. production, procurement, marketing, storage, transportation, distribution, stock position, trade, imports and exports of all major food commodities should be taken into account. A comprehensive and efficient Food and Agriculture Information System (FAIS) based on reliable agricultural statistics was important for food policy.
15. The paper pointed out that in many developing countries data availability for food policy was poor. Many data gaps existed while available data were not reliable. Analysis of data was also lacking. Agricultural data needs for food policy were immense and varied from country to country. Major data items included: structural data on agricultural holdings, farm population, number of livestock and current data on the crop areas and yields, livestock products, inputs, pests and diseases; yard sticks of additional production per hectare; data on input/output relationship; data on responses of different crops/commodities to different inputs alone and in combination; data on cost of production of food crops and livestock products; data on marketing and trade; forecasts of food crops/food commodities; data on post harvest losses for food commodities; data on stocks of food crops and commodities; data on import and export of food commodities and others.
16. It was pointed out that data gaps needed to be identified and appropriate systems of data collection and analysis of data based on census, regular surveys or adhoc studies should be set up or strengthened to bridge the gaps. Methodological aspects of data collection and analysis were very important. The methodology should be objective, simple and inexpensive. Estimation of area, yield and production was generally limited to a few cereal crops; estimates for roots and tuber crops, fruit and vegetable crops and livestock products were seldom available.
17. It was also mentioned that data collected needed to be analysed speedily and results disseminated to the users. Setting up of a FAIS would facilitate data analysis for food policy. The FAO food balance sheets and the estimation of food deficits and surpluses by the Global Information and Early Warning System (GIEWS) were cited as good examples of analysis of available data for food policy. National organizations should undertake similar analysis in more detail. With more reliable and comprehensive data coming from countries such analysis could be improved.
18. The crop forecasts were considered crucial for policy decisions because reliable estimates of production of food crops/commodities were not available in time. Crop forecasting was done using several approaches viz. Crop forecast surveys, agrometeorological/biometrical models and remote sensing data with limited success; no single methodology was fully satisfactory. Methodology combining the use of all data on input supply, weather variables, growing conditions and satellite data needed to be developed for making crop forecasts. Production of crops was highly correlated with crop area which could be collected sufficiently before the harvest. The farmers’ knowledge on crop condition and likely production should also be used. A National Crop Forecasting Centre needed to be set up.
19. It was mentioned that an agricultural sample survey programme, using an integrated approach for major and minor crops and livestock, for regularly collecting current data on food production/supply, including stocks, input use etc. for each sub-district should be jointly organized by National Statistics Office (NSO) and the Department of Agriculture (DOA) and other concerned departments and users of the data. This would help in bridging several data gaps. Separate surveys covering different crops/commodities were costly and difficult to sustain. Sub-sampling of agricultural holding or livestock in a household by the field investigator to collect data on yields of crops and livestock products became largely subjective and needed to be avoided.
20. It was stressed that there was also a need to review the methodology of existing crop and other agricultural surveys because in many cases it was designed long time ago and did not take into account new agricultural production technology and several other factors which were important while designing the survey.
21. It was mentioned that, for the purpose of improving data availability, it was necessary firstly to create a computerized data base for storage, updating and retrieval of all data relating to food and agriculture policy decisions in the ministry or departments concerned and secondly to set up a network connecting the headquarter (HQ) of the concerned ministry with the sources of data viz. different organizations and departments and their sub-national units for transmitting the data to the HQ.
22. Finally it was mentioned that it was necessary to set up a comprehensive FAIS for food policy in each country which, among other things, should include: strengthening and improving programmes for collection and analysis of data by improving crop forecasting methodology and planning and conducting joint agricultural surveys by the NSO and DOA and other departments; setting up a computerized data storage, updating and retrieval system linking all sources of data including sub-national units in the Ministry/Departments responsible for food policy to facilitate the use of all available agricultural data for food policy.
23. The Experts noted that there were several data gaps for food policy analysis and stressed the need for undertaking appropriate steps to deal with them and improve data quality. In particular the importance of crop forecasts was stressed by the experts. Gaps in data on vegetables, fruits and livestock products were also highlighted.
24. The Experts noted that sometimes coordination between NSO, DOA and other departments for conducting joint surveys for collection and analysis of data was difficult. It required discussions at a very high level.
25. The Experts appreciated the need for setting up an FAIS system on the pattern of FAOSTAT in countries for analysis of food and agricultural situation for food policy. The experts recommended establishing a computerized database for storage, updating and retrieval of data on food policy and also linking it with sources of data at the national and sub-national levels.
26. The Experts observed that many gaps existed in the crop and livestock estimates published by FAO. It was important that countries provide official estimates on these parameters as soon as possible to replace or update estimates in FAO publications.
