The surveys demonstrate that farmers have seen raising tilapia as a way to improve incomes. It therefore seems natural that farmers primarily want fish scouts and other fishery staff help them realize higher incomes from fish ponds. Government and taxpayers share this purposé. They want rural incomes to grow. In the next three chapters of this report we will examine to what extent this objective is fulfilled.
The analysis will be carried out first from the standpoint of the farmer and then from the standpoint of the nation as a whole. First, then, to what extent does the farmer experience incremental income and costs? And, second: (i) to what extent does the national income grow and (ii) how is the additional income distributed?
There are two considerations which will be shown to be important in analyzing the economic change caused by fish culture amongst various groups of citizens: the conditions prevailing in the rural economy and the period of time considered.
It is the state of the rural economy that determines the value of a resource (land, water, labour) and of a commodity or service produced. It is the number of years we are willing to consider that will determine the magnitude of benefits and costs.
To organize the enquiry into the possible changes in the economic status of farmers and the population at large, we will use two types of economic environment: (i) the agricultural economy is stagnant and the farmer is underemployed; he has both spare time and spare agricultural waste; many live close to subsistence levels, and (ii) the agricultural economy is growing rapidly, causing migration and structural change; the farmer and his family is fully employed, but may still dispose of an income which is close to the subsistence level.
The surveys reveal a rural economy where individuals are underemployed, that is the survey data is obtained from the first of the two economic environments described above. This is particularly unfortunate in an economy such as that in rural Zambia. Manpower is the main source of power for most households and land is relatively abundant. This combination and use of factors of production indicates that disposal -- marketing of produce -- is the main bottleneck (this in turn may be caused by high real costs or by a lack of an appropriate marketing infrastructure). It means also that the productivity of farmland, for most crops, is likely to be low. The survey has shown that it is quite low for pond culture of tilapia.
Rural economies in Southern Africa are not yet approaching rapid economic growth. However, we discuss it briefly below as it is the goal towards which governments in the area are aiming. It might be useful to have an idea of what demands might then be placed on the aquaculture service.
The analysis will also consider the changes occurring in the short term (a year) and in the long-term (a decade or more).
