The major option for improved lagoon management lies in a gradual intensification of the existing practices. The present rudimentary culture system (trapping and harvesting of finfish and crustaceans) is touching it's limits, for reason which lie within the system (unselective harvesting, conflits between different groups, etc…) and external factors, e.g. contamination. Better management practises could be an immediate solution, e.g.
The next step in intensification, i.e. stocking with hatchery grown finferlings and possibly, outgrowing in cages with seeding should come only when the following intermediate objectives have been met.
The present situation, as evaluated by the mission, warrants a caution strategy to approach large scale, intensive lagoon culture. The constraints are visible at different levels :
Micro-economically. The viability of intensive culture has still to be proven. According to the estimates of the estimates of the mission the costs for feeds and fingerlings, both still being imported, result in a producer price which leaves only a very narrow market-up as profit. These estimates did not take account the investment, risk-factors or labour cost; whether local hatcheries and feedmills are able to provide the inputs at a lower price remains to be seen.
Macro-economically the relatively high costs of production inputs, although small at present, could represent a burden for the national economy if the production capacities are expanded as planned. In this respect, the choice of whether the production is to be exported or used to substitute imports, is instrumental. This choice will also influence decisions at production level, as the domestic market will possibly absorb the product only et price which further reduces the financial viability of intensive operations. Regarding exports, transport costs will have to be taken into account. Also, of course, at present no dependable data on size and dynamics of export markets has been developed.
Socio-economically there are various aspects to be considered :
- Choice of intensity of operation: As a general assumption it can be anticipated that, with increasing intensity of the production systems, the socio-economic benefits (i.e employment, income, and income distribution effects) for the local population decreases as human labour is replaced by technology and hardware (i.e capital). Intensive operations will possibly - as already in the case of HOMA Lagoon -provoke resistance from the outside group, which generally has a very strong position regarding territorial us-rights and access to a resource they regard as their own.
- Dependency and transfer of technology: At present any intensive and, to a leaser extent, semi-intensive shemes will be fairly dependent on inputs, technology and markets provided from outside. Once the schemes are operational any rise in price of imported inputs or any decrease in farm-gate prices offered by exporters may render production uneconomical.
- Infrastructure and finance: The sectoral growth impetus experienced recently is a direct result of the positive disposition demonstrated by Government authorities and national and international agencies, such as the EEC, towards aquaculture development. Favourable conditions regarding finance, training, and infrastructural conditions may change, however, if government priorities change or if negative experiences, in Turkey or somewhere else in the region, change the optimistic outlook adopted by the financing agencies. As the sector at present and for some time to come is not self-supporting, such developments may lead to effective write-offs of both public, private and individual investments.
Ecologically, the risks represented to aquaculture production by water pollution and other forms of environmental contamination increase as the intensity of the operation increases with hatcheries being at the top end of the risk-scale. At the same time, intensive systems also pose a potential hazard to the environment through, for example, feed wastes or diseases which could spread to wild fish populations.
