Annex 6
POPULATION IN SWAZILAND - RURAL AND URBAN POPULATION 1986, PAPER DELIVERED BY L. D. MAMBA, DEPUTY CENSUS COMMISSIONER

The 1986 Population Census was conducted in August 1986 and a total population figure of 676 089 was obtained. The 1986 population figures are still provisional as the population of 676 089 was arrived at through a manual quick count process and therefore it has still to be processed through computer, checked, refined and changed as the need may arise. The final population figure and the finer analytic details of the Census will be only available after all the information has been thoroughly processed next year - from February onwards. The 1986 population figures used in this paper therefore should be used with an understanding that they are still provisional while all the other earlier years (1976 and 1966) figures are final.

The Present Population in Swaziland

The population has long been an issue of concern to the economists; and demographers in the world. As far back as 1978 Thomas Malthus, an English clergyman, wrote about the population problem in his 'Essay on the Principle of Population.' He postulated a universal tendency for the population of a country to grow much faster than the rate of growth in food supplies. He believed that, among other things, the fixed nature of the land on which we grow food land would gradually dwindle as population numbers multiply. As a result the per capita food supplies (per capita incomes) would eventually grind to their maximum carrying capacity. The surplus population numbers would then unavoidably be malnourished and positive checks of these population numbers in the form of hunger, epidemic diseases, wars, etc. would result. Malthus therefore contended that the only way to avoid this miserable 'low standard of living' and resultant demise was for the people to engage in 'moral restraint' and limit their fertilities. He advised against early marriage and advocated sexual abstinence before marriage. In this regard he may be taken as the father of modern birth control. Malthus may have overlooked the power and impact technology may have on the productive capacity of the land but his 'population problem' continues to haunt us to this day.

The provisional population of Swaziland stand at 676 089 today as already mentioned in the introduction. Table 1 shows the 1986 age population distribution as derived from the 1976 age population distribution.

In this population distribution 47.4 percent of the population is in the age group 0-14. To check the dependancy burden that the Swaziland population carries we compute a dependancy ratio which is the ratio of the population 0-14 years and the population 65+ years to the population 15-64 (taken as an economically active population). This dependency ratio is 105 dependants to every 100 breadwinners and a high ratio indeed. In fact, a close study of the Swaziland population structure reveals some demographic and economic problems. It shows that Swaziland is mainly made of a young population. On top of a high dependency burden such a population puts more pressure on our job creation ability for our future nation. It puts more pressure on the nation's ability to build more schools for these young people. It puts more pressure on the country's ability to increase health facilities in the country; to build more hospitals and clinics; to produce more doctors; to provide more beds for our rapidly expanding population. For all these achievements to be realized we need healthy bodies and brains. However, experience has shown that rapidly expanding populations develop handicapped social structures that have difficulty main­taining their own systems. In essence, what normally happens is that, with increasing numbers in population the demand on our materials wants such as food, schools, hospitals and clinics, etc. rapidly outnumber the supply of these resources thus bringing us back to the 'Malthusian Population Trap'.

The intercensal growth rate (i.e. comparing the 1976 and the 1986 population) has been found to be 3.1 percent per year. By world standards this ranks amongst the highest growth rates in the world. The birth rate and the death rate for the country has not been computed yet as the data is still under processing.

Table 1

Population Age Distribution 1986 as Derived from The 1976 Age Distribution

Let us have a look at the 1976 rates to get a feel of the general picture. The following figures show the birth rates and death rates of the countries shown in their last censuses.

Table 2

Comparison of Population Determinants in Four Countries

The above table shows clearly that Swaziland has still a long way to go, if it is to improve its demographic statuses compared to its neighbours in the Southern African region. In almost all the population parameters in the above table Swaziland plays the last fiddle. It has the highest birth rate compared to the other three countries (52.5) while Lesotho has the least with 39 births per thousand people. Swaziland has the highest death rate at 18.5 per thousand people and Botwana has the least with only 13 deaths per thousand people. Swaziland's population growth rate is second only to that of Botswana. The infant mortality rate is the highest at 156 infant deaths per 1 000 births compared to 113 for Lesotho 97 for Zambia and 68 being the least and best for Botswana.

A look at the economic well-being of the four countries above, however, shows clearly that Swaziland's poor health or demographic indicators is not due to economic inadequacy but may be attributed to the country's population policies or to the country's population attitudes towards population control issues.

The table shows Swaziland to be only second to Botswana in GNP output. Botswana is the highest with $ 920 per capita followed by Swaziland with $ 780 per capita, Zambia with $ 580 per capita and the last is Lesotho with a per capita GNP of $460.

Rural Population

As already mentioned above, further analysis of the 1986 population census data has not been made yet. While we have provisional population figures for the census the analysis according to age could not be made. Unfortunately analysis by age groups of rural area population as distinct from urban area population was not done in the last (1976) census and this limits our ability to make estimates for 1986.

Tables 3, 4 and 5 show population distribution according to regions, rural and urban areas. In Table 3 the Swazi Nation Land is divided into Rural Development Areas (RDAs) and Non Rural Development Areas (Non-RDAs) with population of 470 688. The total rural population, including the population, on the other hand, is the total population found in towns and Company towns/Industrial Estates which is 151 384.

An important point to note here is that the population growth rate in urban areas (about 4.6 percent per annum) is much faster than the growth rate in rural areas (about 2.8 percent per annum). If these rates continue, in the future the urban population will overtake the rural population. Another important fact to note is that the percentage of the rural population is decreasing with time compared to the percentage in urban areas (Table 5).

While there is yet no age data on rural area population alone and urban area population, a general comment may be made from experience of the trends from other African countries. The tendency has been that the young, energetic males in the age brackets 15-45 drift away from rural areas to urban areas to seek paid employment. The result of this has been that you find mostly women and young children tilling the soil in rural areas. Table 7 may show evidence of this. This table shows sex ratio by region. The sex ration in Shiselweni region which has no industrial companies for employment purposes is the lowest with 84 males for every 100 females. In Lubombo region, however, which is rice with industrial companies and therefore, with lots of employment opportunities, the sex ratio is the highest in the four regions with 99 males for every 100 females.

Table 3

POPULATION BY ADMINISTRATIVE REGION AND TENTURE
(SUMMARY - PROVISIONAL FIGURES); 1986

Table 4

SUMMARY OF HOMESTEAD, HOUSEHOLD AND POPULATION
COMPOSITION BY TENURE IN SWAZILAND: 1986
(PROVISIONAL FIGURES)

SNL-RDA - SWAZI NATION LAND - RURAL DEVELOPMENT AREA

SNL-NCN-RDA - SWAZI NATION LAND NON-RURAL DEVELOPMENT AREA

ITF - INDIVIDUAL TENURE FARMS.

CD. TOWNS - COMPANY TOWNS

Table 5

DISTRIBUTION PATTERN OF POPULATION IN DIFFERENT
REGIONS BY SEX AND TYPE OF AREA FROM 1976 AND
1986 CENSUSES
(BASED ON 1976 FINAL FIGURES AND 1986 PROVISIONAL FIGURES)'

SML - RDA: Swazi Nation Land - Rural Development Area

SNL NON RDA: Swazi Nation Land - Nan Rural Development Area

CO TOWNS: Company Towns

ITF: Individual Tenure Farm.

Table 6

COMPARATIVE POPULATIONS OF THE TOWNS AND VILLAGES
OF SWAZILAND 1966 - 1986

^* Provisional Population figures.

Table 7

SEX RATIO ( NO. OF MALES PER 100 FEMALES ) OF
RESIDENT POPULATION IN DIFFERENT REGIONS BY
TYPE OF AREA : 1986
(BASED ON PROVISIONAL FIGURES)

( NO. OF MALES PER 100 FEMALES )