|
Chairman: |
A. MADAS (Hungary) |
|
Vice-chairmen: |
M. RUKUBA (Uganda) |
|
K. LANZ (Switzerland) |
|
|
M. RIO TORRES (Peru) |
Secretariat note
|
Moderator: |
J.W. DEINEMA (United States) |
Technical secretaries: |
S.L. PRINGLE (FAO) |
|
|
S.H. SEJENOVICH (Argentina) | ||
The agenda for Commission v' contains three major areas of concern for forest economists, administrators and planners. They are:
the planning of forest development;
developing trends in demand and supply;
needs and trends in institutions for planning and development.
All three are particularly relevant and timely in view of the aggressive environmental demands that foresters are willingly embracing in today's rapidly changing world. The term willingly is used because foresters have traditionally been involved in the management of all of the multiple values inherent in wild and/or inaccessible lands. Consequently, the great majority of foresters is welcoming the emerging concern for the environment by all types of people.
The papers submitted for Commission VI discuss forestry opportunities at all levels and include inputs from a broad spectrum of cultures at various stages of development. Many common opportunities and/or problems are noted, and specific problems tied to a single economy are no less real for that economy. The challenge is to try to identify major world trends in forestry, but still recognize those previously unidentified, specific elements or issues that may have impact on forestry in the future. This I have sincerely tried to do. In the process I may have missed some items that loom tall in the eyes of other readers. I have no apology, however, as I fully anticipate that any significant item I may have missed will be vigorously brought forth and discussed by members of this commission.
The planning of forest development is becoming increasingly complex and subject to many rapidly shifting variables. Historically, forest development planning has ranged from nonexistent to the concept of maximum economic return from wood products. The overall view is shifting, and difficult-to-measure values (recreation, wildlife, pollution abatement, aesthetics, etc.) are additional parameters that forest planners must consciously consider in greater detail. In addition, forestry programmes are often a vital tool of central governments to help achieve political objectives.
THE OVERALL VIEW
Early in his discussion, Gregory states that his initial attempt to examine the merits of planned versus unplanned forest development was meaningless. This is simply because during the last decade, planned forest development has become an accepted fact by the majority of the world's political, economic, and forestry leaders whether their form of government is centralized or otherwise. He notes forest development planning is widely accepted today because:
economic development is a major concern of over two thirds of the world's people;development planning goes beyond the old method of aggregation of analyses into " a national plan" which just sets national growth and investment targets.
Gregory indicates the question for this decade is not " to plan or not to plan," but rather " How should development plans be drawn and implemented and who should do the planning?" It is essential that developing nations prepare plans for their forest and forest industry sector's contribution to economic growth. Foresters and forest economists must, because of their specialized training and backgrounds, help make the long-term investment decisions for forestry in relation to other sectors of the economy.
Johnston gives us insight into the formulation and implementation of overall forest policy. He deals primarily with state-controlled forestry, and assumes that governments formulate forest policy basically through political considerations. Government policy is usually interpreted into strategies by the corporate plan for a forest enterprise. Tactical and operational interpretations occur in descending order at regional (conservancy) and district (national forest) administrative levels.
Johnston also notes how the theoretical concepts of forest planning are shifting. Traditionally, forest planning has been basically pointed toward producing forest products for local use. Forestry today is increasingly used as a tool of central governments to help achieve political objectives. Again, forest economists, administrators and planners must have an awareness of governmental political aims and integrate forest planning with other sectors of the economy. Rapidly changing social, economic, political and technological factors dictate flexible, as opposed to fixed, static forest policies. Rapid updating is necessary to provide programme stability. Multiple, rather than single (wood products), forest objectives are increasing, and policy must also consider intangible or unmarketable social values as objectives. Inputs and outputs should not be provided or measured solely on market values. Planning at various levels must be precisely definitive and a flexible, dynamic process. Operationally, annual (short-range) and five-to ten-year (long-range) plans can provide flexibility and continuity, with year one converted annually into a detailed budget. Performance must be compared with agreed plans and budgets.
Earl materially substantiates the Gregory and Johnston postulations with his examinations of:
the long-term requirements for wood;
forestry as an investment;
nonmarketed benefits of forestry.
He notes that the source of strength of forestry has always been its concern for the environment, and urges the adoption of a net social benefit criterion-derived from greater use of cost/benefit analysis techniques- to maintain this concern.
De Camino views the bases of development planning for the forestry sector and stresses the need for prsentation at the regional and national level. He draws attention to the inadequacy of evaluation projects solely from the viewpoint of the private sector without recognition of social benefits, which frequently puts forestry projects at a disadvantage in competing with other projects for investment funds. He confirms the importance of recognizing the intermediary position of the sector, its complementarily with other sectors, its role in increasing employment, harmonizing development and spreading the cost of development capital, as well as the need for coefficients to measure these overall relationships. He outlines a model of economic development relative to the forestry sector which utilizes the sector's strategic characteristics and which has maximum validity at the regional level.
Country examples
The Gregory-Johnston observations identify many of the overall world trends that forest economists, administrators and planners are encountering. A number of papers from developing countries also illustrate many of these same problems and opportunities.
Srivastava and Hejmadi discuss forestry development planning in India. Five-year plans were developed from 1951-56 to 1964-71 and evolved into three major objectives:
to have adequate forest cover to prevent floods, conserve soil and moisture and to ameliorate climatic excesses in general;to provide wood for constructional purposes, for wood-based industries and fuelwood for domestic purposes; and
to preserve forests for scientific study, sports and recreation.
Major gaps in previous plans were also identified, evaluated and studied carefully in considering the approach to the 1974-79 plan. These additions plus a hoped-for doubling in outlays provide an ambitious programme for the next five years.
Agarwala and Seth also deal with development planning in India. Kamau describes the situation in Kenya. De Rosayro deals with land-use planning in Jamaica, and Caruso with Argentina and the province of Cordoba.
Methods and tools for planning and decision making
Row reviews a number of recent strides in adapting operations, research techniques and other tools of economics to assist in making multiple-use decisions. Technical information on the biological and physical responses to management activities is becoming increasingly available for incorporation into evaluation models. Lack of methods and information in a number of fields, however, limits the usefulness of present techniques. Among these are economical resource inventory techniques for areas of the size of management units, trends in demand and values for forest resource outputs, methods to estimate costs that consider the size and conditions on individual management areas, and ways to measure adverse environmental impacts.
Moiseev discusses methods of cutting-volume calculations for forecast purposes. They can be used only to a limited extent since they partially ignore the influence of the projected measures on the dynamics of the total growing stock. At the same time methods for cutting-volume calculations can be perfected only through an organic coordination of the current plans of the forest management with its long-term development goals.
Gane, Grut, Tersch, MacGregor, Monteiro, Alves, Obminski and Mujica also direct our attention to methods and tools for planning and decision making. Again, the trend appears to be toward methods and systems that develop and utilize criteria for deriving net social benefits from forest planning and development efforts.
PLANTATION PLANNING
Garrasino, Sainz-Sanguino, Falla Ramírez, Hummel and Davidson, and Familton direct attention to the many factors that planners, economists, and administrators must get involved with in the planning, development, and management of man-made forests, and the marketing of products from plantations.
Garrasino deals with:
adequate protection, control and utilization of existing natural forests and restoration of better species;
selection of suitable plantation-growing lands;
seed from superior stock;
maintenance of plantations to technically acceptable forestry levels; and
consistent and stable governmental financial support.
Sainz-Sanguino discusses similar difficulties and circumstances in the development of a plantation programme. The programme is supported by political decision for reasons of conservation and indirect benefits, and the bases for a programme are examined within a broad framework. Direct programme benefits such as production of wood, gums of fruits, and indirect benefits such as green belts for recreation, soil stabilization, creation of employment opportunities and aid to the rural economy are included. Plantations, however, tend to reduce land available for grazing, but this could be mitigated with pasture improvement. Supporting services and activities such as financing, accounting, development of land access and logging roads, forest fire problems, administrative structure, special landholder problems, information systems, and computerized data banks are reviewed.
Falla Ramírez states that tropical American countries with a high demographic growth rate are facing a serious problem, with the danger of an uncontrollable social crisis, because of the impossibility of satisfying their overall population's minimum requirements. These requirements can be met to an acceptable extent by attaining a level of economic earnings that will enable them to obtain food, health, housing, education, clothing and entertainment. But these earnings cannot be expected as a gift from, or a function of, the government; they must be obtained solely from a redistribution of land and from work.
Traditional usage in agriculture and cattle breeding as the only economic utilization of land has not permitted an appreciation of the alternative of reforestation as not only the most suitable economic and technical use of the land but an activity that would incorporate more labour into domestic production. The paper contains some economic analyses tending to demonstrate that the activity of establishing forestry or reforestation plantations is an important source for generating employment and adequate earnings for families of the rural sector either as a supplement to agricultural production or the sole productive activity on their individual farms.
Hummel and Davidson deal with the planning of primary markets for wood, such as sawmills, pulp mills and particleboard mills since about 1918. From the forest owners' viewpoint, forests and forest industries are regarded as a single industrial complex. Market development has four major aspects:
1. The wood supply available to new developments.
2. Preparation of a comprehensive industrial development strategy.
3. A national organization to coordinate grower-industrialist efforts.
4. Commercial arrangements to assure similar coordination at project level.
Estimates of the available wood supply must be based on production forecasts in terms of volume and quality of timber, and conditioned by the demand of existing markets. The use of independent professional consultants, guided by present strategic criteria, for the examination of alternatives is suggested. Irregardless of the type of structure of the forest industrial complex, good formal, informal, and even personal lines of communications are essential. Few forest industries will make long-term capital investments without assurances from growers of sustained long-term wood supplies.
Familton reviews how studies by foresters in 1925 predicted and/or determined:
New Zealand's saw-log supply from indigenous re sources would be exhausted in the nineteen seventies.There was no prospect of sustaining, let alone expanding, the wood supply from cultural treatment of slow-growing indigenous forest species.
The only remedy available was to start an intensive planting programme of potentially fast-growing, introduced coniferous species.
The intensive planting programme was initiated, and Familton describes the evolution of plantation forestry using Pinus radiata. The planning philosophies developed over a fifty-year period of plantation management should be very useful to countries initiating, by necessity, similar plantation management programmes. One item of particular note is that a policy of expanded, rather than sustained, yield management provides the flexibility required to match a desirable roundwood growth rate with planned expansion of industrial processing capacity.
Garrasino, Sainz-Sanguino, Falla Ramírez, Hummel and Davidson, and Familton do not indicate that recreational use of the plantations has yet become a significant factor in plantation management. Does recreational use emerge as a significant factor only when developed countries have mature plantations (or natural forests) and a surplus (exportable) quantity of forest products? The observations by Ghosh and Lohani tend to substantiate this. Sague Diaz and Romero outline specific plantation plans while Frediani and Ruan Ruan deal with aspects of investments and financing
ENVIRONMENTAL AND SOCIAL VALUES
Niesslein, Grayson, and Beale and Storms draw our attention to the environmental and social values that forest economists, administrators and planners must consider as their impact accelerates. Niesslein notes that the ties between wood (woodland) and recreation-social use tend to be competitive in three areas because recreation:
is only one of the manifold (multiple) uses of woodlands;
use may conflict with the training for and application of forestry; and
may delay and/or diminish the income from a forest enterprise-a primary concern.
Austrian forest enterprises are economic undertakings seeking commercial profit and labour costs are rising. Increased recreational use of forest enterprise lands contribute to:
wildfire damage to woods and equipment;
potential liability claims from tourists due to dangerous woods operations;
delay or disruption of woods work by tourist traffic; and
devaluation of shooting districts.
A 1971 Austrian legislative act recognized the recreational impact on the economics of forest enterprises, farm woodlands and land sales, and provides for reimbursement from federal funds where appropriate. Niesslein has worked out and applied methods of evaluation that equitably recognize these impacts.
Grayson discusses the forestry benefits, or so-called benefits, which are not measured in money terms. Recreation, general amenity, control of water yield, reduced soil erosion, wind shelter and the maintenance of an established way of life are among the main nonmarket benefits. Such benefits are often termed intangible, but they are rarely intangible and are more likely to be goods and services which are not sold.
All forestry benefits deserve appraisal so that concerned decision makers may competently judge forestry contributions. Cost/benefit analysis is the economic working tool used for identification and evaluation of costs and benefits (marketable or not) from society's viewpoint. Grayson describes and discusses recent good progress in attempts to evaluate such unmarketable benefits as recreation and water yields, and more difficult ones such as general amenity or landscape. Informed debate requires (a) defined objectives, (b) objective and, if possible, quantitative analysis and assessment. and (c) the introduction of judgement when preparing con elusions and recommendations. Unsupported subjective judgement on an issue implies, at best, mere intuition and, at worst, mere prejudice. More data on the physical and social consequences of forestry are needed. Even if the effects cannot be measured and evaluated in money terms, more informed discussion will be possible.
Beale and Storms discuss how United States public forest land administration is centred around the " multiple-use" concept. Multiple use is a concept of considering a variety of use demands before allocating forest resources, and not a decision-making formula. Public-spirited citizens are now involved in a debate between economic forest products and recreational opportunities and amenities. Increasing numbers of people are willing to trade tangible forest benefits for difficult-to-measure amenities.
Bowles notes that since the second world war the U.S.S.R. has become a major industrial world power. Consequently, developing nations may consider the economic system of the U.S.S.R. as the appropriate model to follow as they seek rapid economic growth. He examines one aspect of the Soviet economy the " social cost" of forest utilization and the forest products industry-to see what knowledge may be gained by developing countries.
Lewis also notes the need for balance between a nation's economic and social benefits from forestry, and emphasis will vary depending on the needs of people in the economies involved. Developing nations require economic benefits, and developed nations place increasing value on nonmarketable benefits. Governments must assure that the potential to produce intangible social benefits is not destroyed while producing economic benefits. Algvere substantiates the above findings in general. He notes that adherence to the sustained yield ideal is necessary to forestry, while environmental considerations will increasingly moderate the quest for economic gain through mechanization and large-scale operations. Samek deals with forest policy as related to social functions in Czechoslovakia.
Madas, Zivnuska, Vorobiov, Josephson and Ogasawara direct our attention to the most recent trends in the demand and supply of wood. Based on projections outlined in his general paper, Madas estimates a total world consumption of wood products in the year 2000 of roughly five thousand million cubic metres. Data on total world forest-growing stock reserves are incomplete, but known reserves in North America and the U.S.S.R., plus reserves in virgin forests of other regions, and production from world-wide managed forests can probably meet the projected consumption level for the year 2000.
To meet the projected year 2000 consumption, Madas foresees a need for increasing present European, Japanese, and United States imports of 140 million wood raw material equivalent (WRME) cubic metres to 360 million, or an increase of 220 million.
The Madas analysis indicates that the additional 220 million WRME cubic metres net imports could be provided as follows:
|
|
Million WRME cubic metres |
|
Canada |
120 |
|
U.S.S.R. |
30 |
|
Other regions |
40 |
|
Other resources than wood |
30 |
|
Total |
220 |
Zivnuska discusses probable shifts in future prices of wood products relative to world trends in:
general price levels;
the disposable incomes of consumers;
the prices of wood substitutes; and
the prices of other natural resource materials.
Zivnuska uses the 1870-1970 forest history of the United States to illustrate similar problems faced by developing nations on a world basis today with relatively limited wood supplies. World population trends and potential impacts on the world's wood supply are reviewed. Forest product prices in the United States are likely to continue an upward trend until at least the year 2000, and world wood product prices can be expected to rise relative to prices generally over the next several decades. The great challenge to foresters is to provide measures for checking the rise in the cost of wood products. The demands of the world's increasing population, even with effective birth-control measures, upon inadequate supplies of food, fibre, shelter and energy will accelerate. This may reverse recent trends toward giving greater weight to amenity rather than commodity values of forests.
Vorobiov discusses trends in forest utilization and management in the U.S.S.R. In a century marked by exceptionally swift development of science and engineering, of industry and agriculture, the protective significance of forests is felt ever increasingly along with the continuous rise of demand for wood. These complicated and multi-use functions dictate the necessity of a versatile approach. In the U.S.S.R. it is being solved by means of all possible intensification of forest management with due regard to geographical distribution, to the inevitable alignment of forest utilization with the whole process of the utilization of nature and to the intensification of scientific research.
Industrial and densely populated regions necessitate purification of water and atmosphere, protection of soils from erosion, creation of favourable conditions for rest and tourism, improvement of landscape and aesthetics, and giving the main role to various kinds of nonclear cuttings (selection, successive improvement and sanitation cuttings). While the exploitation of forests must be inevitably ruled by silvicultural requirements, due consideration of all goals is required. Higher production come from the less populated areas of Siberia and the Far East.
Josephson reviews a new study of the current forest situation and outlook in the United States. The study is the latest in a series of periodic analyses made by the U.S. Forest Service. In effect, it updates the timber trends study of 1962 and the comprehensive timber resource review of 1952. Major highlights of this study are:
Demands for timber products in the United States increased 40 percent in the past 20 years, and comparable increases are indicated in future years.Demands for nontimber resources and uses of the forests are accelerating rapidly.
Recent levels of forest management will not provide timber supplies adequate to meet prospective demands at traditional prices.
Rising imports are a significant factor, but rising exports are offsetting a substantial part of the growth in imports.
Timber prices are likely to rise due to increasing demands and diminishing supplies.
Wood substitutes are possible alternatives, but create additional environmental problems.
Better utilization of timber resources can ease supply problems.
Intensified forest management may increase long-term supplies and maintain an acceptable forest environment.
Briefly. Ogasawara compares Japan's 1965 forestry situation with the 1971 position. Japan's domestic timber production has stagnated because of increasing local forestry labour costs and rising competition from foreign imports. Domestic production is stagnating while imports are making up a larger and larger share of total consumption. Environmental demands on forestry are accelerating at the same time. A comparison of 1965 and 1971 white papers indicates:
Domestic timber production cannot keep up with increasing demand and foreign imports exceeded 50 percent of total 1970 consumption of about 100 million m³.Japan is attempting to initiate a programme to increase domestic production to 90 percent of demand by the year 2015.
Environmental problems and the protection of other natural resources (world problems) are being emphatically stressed for the first time.
Future forestry activities must harmonize the above problems and develop sound forestry.
Kurokawa materially substantiates the above export-import observations, and notes the possibilities for Japan to aid in the development of scientific forestry in developing nations of the world by furnishing markets for their wood products. Bludovsky, Chittaranjan, and Giallorensi discuss similar development trends in their respective economies and note expanding social trends.
FOREST ADMINISTRATIONS
Velay, Speidel, and Henry discuss various aspects of forestry administration, and experiences in their respective economies. Velay notes that although their role in society and in the economy has never been in evidence as much as in recent times, forest administrations experience some difficulty in adapting to the contemporary world, and question themselves on their approach. It has become necessary for them:
to modernize their techniques and their working methods to draw upon management developments and the progress of science;to reconsider the best structure for the present to develop the forest production function and to play their full role in the environment.
The silvicultural aspect of production is more and more dependent on the industrial and commercial sector situated downstream from the forest. Forest administrators can intervene in this sector by direct entry into exploitation activities, manufacture and sale of forest and wood-based products, in favouring a contractual economy, or being flexible in response to both public and private interests.
Should, therefore, administrations limit their ambitions to the forest domain proper, or should they enlarge progressively their concern to the entire natural areas and the resources which they contain? The reply can differ according to the country, but the choice is often delicate. It is better to avoid the dispersion of given forest service resources among too numerous activities.
It is also necessary to ensure the financing of activities under their charge. The normal problems of financing forest administration are intensified when forestry expenses need to increase at the same time the forestry revenues are diminishing. It seems necessary in all cases to distinguish carefully in the financial balance sheet of the forest administrations between that which concerns production and that which corresponds to the actions favouring protection of nature, or the environment and recreation. To favour the adaption of forest administrations to their new mission, and to prepare the future, those responsible should pay particular attention to research and to the training of young foresters, to the formation of permanent technical and administrative staff and to the utilization of modern management and information methods.
Speidel discusses the factors to be considered in describing and implementing an economic and planning services unit as an aid to forest administrators. He defines forest administration and planning services. He also discusses tasks, conditions under which a unit should be established, form and competency, and the evaluation of the results of providing such services.
Henry gives us a chronological narrative (case history) of significant Australian state and federal cooperative forestry efforts since about 1900. The history of Australian attempts to create a national forest policy, and the present position, are reviewed.
Basically, the Australian states, who control land laws and forest resources, are sensitive to their sovereignty, but they are dependent on the federal government for financial resources. The four most significant fields of cooperation are education, research, afforestation, and marketing. Traditionally, federal government involvement has usually been in education and research.
The conclusion drawn is that an overall national policy is not to be expected, but that with cooperation and goodwill, along with legislation in limited specific fields, forestry can progress satisfactorily without duplication of effort or governments acting at cross purposes.
Elisei proposes a national centre for the administrative, technical and financial management of Italian forest exploitation.
SPECIAL PROBLEMS
Adeyoju, Gregersen, and Naysmith direct our attention to examples of the types of special problems encountered by forest economists, administrators and planners.
Public authorities frequently propose and/or initiate reclamation projects to rehabilitate deserts and mined areas, overcropped and overgrazed lands, and improve the physical characteristics of coastal regions. The engineering technology for doing such projects is available. However, land-tenure patterns, socioeconomic factors and the difficulty of obtaining title to marginal lands in both developed and developing nations often create formidable problems.
Adeyoju discusses the institutional factors which affect the ownership and use of land. The concept of property rights is the most important, but other institutions (economic and noneconomic) influence the ownership and use of land. Special consideration is given to the general impact of government, administrative organization and laws on the ownership and use of marginal land. Governments, by necessity, generally resort to political allocation of resources to multipurpose projects such as reclamation.
Ordinary government departments are not suited for commercial operations, and creators of public enterprises often establish new, autonomous frameworks like corporations, boards and state companies. These present special problems, and subsequent, unrestrained, badly drafted, unenforced, and unknown laws and regulations often proliferate. No particular institutional framework is inescapable. The efforts of the mature and creative marginal land reformer would be purposeful in taking account of these factors.
Gregersen discusses the importance of exports of forest products applicable to many countries, and the general nature of such export programmes in terms of:
objectives;
relevant policies and policy instruments; and
implementation of programmes.
Particular reference is made to less developed countries. Import substitutions and exports are defined, and only net exports increase available foreign exchange.
Export expansion benefits may include:
increased foreign exchange earnings;
technological and organizational improvements; and
aid to national development in general.
Policies and development programmes encouraging expanded exports must meet basic minimum requirements of:
acceptable product quality and product standards;
acceptable volume and timing of shipments; and
competitive prices.
Policy instruments available to governments for aiding export development programmes are:
government ownership and operation of export operations;
regulations; and
incentives for private entrepreneurs - direct price incentives (exempt taxes)-indirect price incentives (research, training).
Establishing and implementing export development programmes involve:
identification of export markets and domestic comparative advantages;
identification of requirements of export markets;
analysis of bottlenecks or barriers to meeting the requirements;
evaluation and selection of policy instruments and programmes to overcome bottlenecks; and
creation of institutional and organizational framework for implementing the chosen programme.
Gregersen discusses each of the previously listed functions, with major emphasis on criteria for evaluating export incentives and programme development. A final section provides an example of a process for designing a hypothetical, Latin American country, forest export development programme.
Naysmith discusses the impact of technology on native peoples (Canadian Indians and Eskimos), and identifies two major issues:
The effect indiscriminate use of water, forest and land resources might have on natural habitat and thus on native people who depend to some degree on the " land" for their livelihood.
The challenge of providing native people with the opportunity to play a productive role in a technological society if they so desire.
If the objective under issue I is to minimize alteration of the natural resources base, all values inherent in the " land" must be recognized. Although the number of people wholly or partially dependent on the " land" in Canada may be diminishing and its importance subsequently decreasing, the harvesting of country food still represents a significant segment of the local economy. In general, the industrial sector recognizes its responsibility to minimize disturbance of the " land." It has demonstrated a willingness to work within sensible guidelines established by legislation and/ or regulations.
Where hunting, trapping, and fishing are still the primary means of making a living, the younger people in a community are often not willing to pursue this kind of life. Yet, upon entering the labour force, they are at a disadvantage when competing with more highly educated and technically trained non-native people. Issue 2 emerges here. Empirical data, to date, indicate that the upward mobility of these young people is limited. On the other hand, where native people have been given positive formal instruction and technical training, the result is gratifying to employer and employee.
A stronger programme of on-the-job training and technical instruction, both by government and private sector, is required to expand job opportunities for native people.
Summary
An overall review of forestry planning today indicates that we, as forest economists, administrators, and planners, should possibly reexamine one long-standing principle and three continuing trends, namely:
The source of forestry strength has and always will be its concern for the environment.Forestry is increasingly being used as a tool of central government to help achieve political objectives.
Economic development is a major concern of over two thirds of the world's people, and planning is a vital and accepted element of this concern.
Multiple (economic and social) rather than single (wood products) forestry objectives are rapidly accelerating, but the degree is dependent on the stage of development and/or the raw wood supply available to a given economy.
Within the above trends, it is apparent that forest planning is rapidly becoming more complex and yet subject to shifting variables. Consequently, it must be a dynamic but flexible process, and the rapid updating of plans is a prerequisite to successful programmes. Planning once was keyed to sustained yield and/or maximization of profit, but the trend is continuing toward inclusion of more and more of the other forest amenities wthin forestry objectives. The question is no longer one of, to plan or not to plan, but rather, how should plans be drawn and implemented by whom?
Market value or the interplay of supply and demand for wood products is no longer the principal key to forest planning. With environmental and the other forest amenities emerges also management specialization. Consequently, as forest economists, administrators and planners we are going to find ourselves working with anal or depending more and more upon planning inputs from individuals and/or multifunctional teams of specialists (i.e., hydrologists, soil scientists, range and wildlife managers, etc.). We must have this specialized input in order to make sound forestry recommendations to governing bodies.
Several of the papers for Commission v' deal directly with the field of plantation forestry. This is a field where impressive technological advances have been made and where the potential exists for even greater advances. The majority of these papers deals with developed or rapidly developing timber-importing economies, thus indicating that these two conditions are significant factors in the development of successful forest plantation programmes. Expanded rather than sustained-yield plantation forestry can also, over a period of time, shift an economy from one of a wood importer to wood exporter. However, only long-range plantation planning and implementation can accomplish this shift. Forestry plantation production and the development of industrial plant capacity must also be synchronized by long-range plans.
Forest environmental and social values are receiving increasing world-wide attention. The degree of attention being given to forest environmental and social values appears to be correlated to a considerable degree with the level of development inherent in a given economy. In all economies, forest economists, administrators and planners should participate in the governmental decision-making process to the point of assuring that the potential to produce nonmarketable social benefits is not destroyed while producing economic benefits. All forestry benefits deserve appraisal so that concerned decision makers may competently judge forestry contributions. There also appears to be one large unknown and un-measurable factor that can be identified but not measured at this time. The world's increasing population, even with effective birth-control measures, will demand accelerated supplies of food, fibre, shelter and energy. Will these world demands eventually reverse the recent trends toward amenities other than commodity values of forests?
Developing trends in the demand and supply picture for forest wood products on a world-wide basis do not indelicate either a feast or a famine. Based on known world inventories and estimates, there appears to be a sufficient supply of raw wood to meet total world demands through at least the year 2000. This is assuming that total world exports can be expanded to meet total world import demands. Economic demand and supply factors that are further conditioned by transportation costs of raw wood and wood products will determine to what degree this level of exports and imports can be further developed. World wood prices can be expected to rise relative prices of other goods and services over the next several decades. Developed, but wood-importing nations can provide opportunities for assisting developing nations with a surplus of raw wood by the design and implementation of their long-term import policies and practices.
From an institutional standpoint, there is significant evidence that many foresters tend to work in a closed environment, and there is some evidence of their difficulty of adaption to the contemporary world. As economists, administrators, and planners, we must continually re-examine existing organizational structures and seek out the very best. There is a need to continually modernize techniques and working methods and draw upon new management developments and the progress of science. While conditions will vary with each economy, the most effective performance will probably occur when forest administrators do not limit their ambitions to the forest domain proper, but expand their concern and management recommendations to entire natural areas and the resources they contain. There is a need to distinguish carefully in the financial balance sheet that which is concerned with production and that which concerns protection of the environment and nature. Forest economists, administrators and planners must also ensure the adequate financing of activities under their charge. Particular attention should be directed toward research. to the training of young foresters, to the formation of permanent technical and administrative staff, and to the utilization of modern management and information methods, such as economic and planning unit services. Last, but certainly not least, we must develop expertise in the understanding and solving of land-use and land-ownership problems, encourage export programmes, and fully integrate the desires, hopes and needs of native peoples into the entire fabric of forestry objectives.
|
GENERAL PAPERS |
|
|
Adeyoju, S. |
Institutional problems involved in the reclamation of marginal lands |
|
Beale, J.A. & Storms, M.W. |
Multiple use demands on the forest administrator |
|
Falla Ramírez, A. |
Superficies minimas de bosques artificiales en unidades forestales familiares |
|
Familton, A.K. |
Successful planned development of forestry and associated industry |
|
Garrasino, L.M. |
Planificación del desarrollo forestal |
|
Grayson, A.J. |
The valuation of non-wood benefits |
|
Gregersen, H.M. |
Export development programs for forestry |
|
Gregory, R. |
Planned or unplanned forest development |
|
Henry, J. |
The creation of a national forest policy in a federal state |
|
Hummel, F.C. & Davidson, J.L. |
The planning and development of markets for man-made forests |
|
Johnston, D.R. |
The formulation and implementation of forestry policy |
|
Josephson, H.R. |
The changing timber situation in the United States |
|
Madas, A. |
What will 2000 bring in changed patterns of production, trade and consumption? |
|
Moiseev, M.A. |
Methods of the cutting volume calculations for forecast purposes |
|
Naysmith, J.K., |
The impact of technology upon native people and their traditional pursuits |
|
Niesslein, E. |
Coordination of environment conservation with forest economic objectives |
|
Ogasawara, M. |
Trend of forestry of Japan for the recent six years |
|
Row, C. |
Methods for evaluating multiple use alternatives |
|
Sainz-Sanguino, L. |
Bases pare la elaboración y desarrollo de un programa nacional de repoblación forestal |
|
Speidel, G.N. |
Creation and development of economic and planning services in forest administrations |
|
Velay, L. |
L'avenir des administrations forestières |
|
Vorobiov, C.I. |
Main trends in forest utilization and forest management in the U.S.S.R. |
|
Zivnuska, J.A. |
Will wood products be cheap or expensive? |
|
SPECIAL PAPERS |
|
|
Agarwala, V.P. |
Planning for forests and forest products industries |
|
Algvere, K.V. |
Problems in evaluation of the contribution of forestry to socio-economic development |
|
Bludovsky, Z. |
Development trends of Czechoslovak forest economics |
|
Bowles, W.D. |
Environmental disruption and the Soviet model for developing countries |
|
Caruso. |
Argentina forestal y Córdoba |
|
Chittaranjan. |
Future development of forest and forestry in India |
|
de Camino, R. |
Bases pare la formulación de un modelo de desarrollo económico en función del sector forestal |
|
de Rosayro, R.A. |
An integrated approach to land use in the humid tropics (with special reference to Jamaica) |
|
Earl, D.E. |
Does forestry need a new ethos? |
|
Elisei, F. |
Pour un centre national de gestion administrative, technique et comptable des exploitations forestières italiennes |
|
Frediani, G. |
Generalidades sobre el contenido de un proyecto de inversiones de una masa forestal |
|
Gane, M. |
The systematic identification of forest development opportunities |
|
Ghosh, R.C. & Lohani, D.N. |
Plantation forestry - its implications in Indian economy |
|
Giallorensi. |
Panorama maderero industrial argentino |
|
Grut, M. |
Evaluating public investments in forestry |
|
Instituto Nacional de Desarrollo y Aprovechamiento Forestales Cuba |
Dinámica de la actividad forestal en Cuba- 1972 |
|
Kamau, F.M. |
Forestry in Kenya's developing economy |
|
Kurokawa, H. |
The role of Japanese forestry on the world timber market and resource |
|
Lewis, G.D. |
Social influences in forest exploitation |
|
MacGregor, J.J. |
A critique of criteria sometimes used in judging forest policies |
|
Monteiro Alves, A. |
Marginal approach to financial maturity of timber |
|
Mujica. |
Análisis de la variación del precio de los sauces en el mercado de frutos del Tigre (Argentina) |
|
Obminski, B. |
Theory of forest physiographic regionalization |
|
Romero, R.R. |
Plan forestal Mendoza, Argentina |
|
Ruan Ruan, F. |
Estudio de crédito para plantación de 200000 has. de bosques industriales |
|
Sague Diaz, H. |
Plan de desarrollo integral de la cuenca superior del río San Juan (Cuba) |
|
Samek, V. |
Forestry policy with respect to the social functions of the forest in Czechoslovakia |
|
Seth, V.K. |
New dimensions of forestry planning and development in India |
|
Srivastava, T.M. & Hejmadi. |
Forestry development planning in India |
|
Tersch, F. |
A current inquiry of revenue and costs and their trend as an aid to decision-making in Austrian forest policy |
The planning of forest development
1. There was general agreement on the nature of the task of planning forest development.
2. The basic functions of the forest in supplying a myriad of goods and services for human welfare are essentially:
(a) productive;
(b) protective;
(c) social, recreational.
The productive function is undertaken by private or state agencies and is usually subject to the condition that returns must equal or exceed costs in commercial accounting
3. Some protective and social services of the forest may become available in an unplanned and haphazard fashion concurrently with the productive function because they are inherent in the presence of the forest itself. These functions can, however, be adequately assured only by public effort normally through government action and at some public expense. It becomes essential that accounting for these functions be established if sound planning decisions are to be made.
4. In addition to the direct functions of forests, the forestry sector as a whole plays an important role in the overall economy through its contributions to components of the national economy such as employment, national income, public revenue, foreign exchange earnings, income distribution and rural development. In many of these aspects the forestry sector is very favourably placed to make major impact.
5. In almost all countries at any stage of development, the protective and social functions are becoming increasingly important in relation to the production function, though the production function will remain generally the leading one. Only well-based combinations of the main functions adapted to the medium- and long-term needs of the country or region can provide optimum of forests to the public welfare, in the interest of both the total economy and the forestry sector. More and more, governments are making use of the forestry sector as a tool for overall economy and social policy through its impact on the development of the national economy.
6. This makes it critically important that foresters have a clear understanding of the interrelations of the forest functions, of their impact on the economy, and of methods of financing and budgeting for these activities, and that they ascertain that planners and decision makers at all levels be fully cognizant of these characteristics and of the potential of the sector in promoting social and economic development.
7. The main bases for forestry development planning remain forest inventories, demand projections, feasibility appraisals and management plans. These must be broadened to encompass defined objectives of the protective and of the social, or amenity, functions as well as appropriate appraisals of the resource base. Further methodologies yet need to be applied or developed for the quantification and evaluation of the services provided by these functions. However, many new tools and devices for planning or decision-making such as cost/ benefit analysis and simulation models, whose use is often made feasible by the use of computers, are now available to the planners. Some of these may be critical in considering the sector's role in overall development.
8. In addition to management plans for individual forest areas national timber-trend studies, prepared against a background of regional and world trend appraisals, need to be prepared or revised. In some countries, recorded data may be inadequate for the necessary level of planning. Hence, further inventory work and wood consumption surveys should often have priority attention.
9. Needs and requirements in connexion with the protection and social functions of the forests should also be formulated and made part of national appraisals.
10. Upon this necessary information basis, long-term strategic plans, medium-term tactical plans, and short-term operational plans may be prepared. Long-term strategic plans have to be extended for at least 15 to 20 years, in order that strategy is dearly formulated.
Developing trends in demand and supply
11. The commission learned of studies of prospective future demand and supply situations which had been undertaken for the world as a whole and for major consuming areas. The findings of these appraisals, as well as those undertaken by FAO, point to several important generalities.
12. In the coming decades, by approximately the year 2000, wood consumption of the world will double.
However, for the main categories of product the rate of expansion is expected to differ considerably. For fuel-wood, which currently accounts for about one half of total wood use, as well as for the minor category of miscellaneous roundwood, consumption will be nearly stagnant. For industrial wood as a whole consumption will triple. For sawnwood which has been traditionally the major form of industrial wood use, annual growth in consumption will be modest - in the order of 1.5 percent. However. for products of pulp and for wood-based panels the annual rate of growth will be in the order of 4 to 6 percent, resulting in at least a tripling or quadrupling of consumption by the end of the century.
13. This also means that by the end of this decade consumption of wood for the production of pulp and woodbased panels will have surpassed in world importance the wood use for sawnwood. Substantial differences between various regions in relating rates of growth may, of course, be expected.
14. Although the growth of all wood products combined is not spectacular, it will entail a considerably expanded drain on the wood supply. In some areas, notably Japan, western Europe and the United States, increasing levels of imports will be required. Although much of the additional requirements may come from Canada and the U.S.S.R., demands on natural forests in tropical areas are likely to increase substantially. Plantations already established will play an increasing role in supplying raw materials. There will be need and opportunity, particularly in the developing countries, for increased investment in plantations in areas capable of producing rapid growth, with the aim of obtaining expanded yield to assist in meeting future timber demands.
Needs and trends in institutions for planning and development
15. Forest administrations should do the work of planning and should ensure that forestry development plans are coordinated and integrated with national economic planning.
16. There are new techniques available to the forest administrator to utilize in policy-making and deeision-making. The governmental administrator has responsibility and authority to coordinate all the somewhat divergent, and sometimes mutually in consistent, objectives and appraisals of the various subsectors. and weld them together info a programme that assures perpetuation of the services and of the resource itself.
Additional discussion points
17. A large number of participants from some countries of the Latin American region stressed their concern with the nature of the development of forestry in the region.
18. They expressed concern that all too frequently the objective in forestry operations was the maximization of profits in the short run rather than the socially sound objective of long-term maximization of returns. The interest of private enterprises in a short-term profit period was at odds with the long-term natural cycle of the forests. They believe that this is the basic reason for extermination of the natural forests in many developing areas.
19. They also expressed concern that planning objectives were distorted by primary emphasis on commercial profits. They felt that in order that the benefits of an integral plan for the development of forestry resources be shared by the entire community, there must take place a substantial redistribution of wealth. In addition to the social considerations which this entails. it is obvious that the community, as such, must be responsible for carrying out the investment programme and employ different criteria in the process.
20. In order to overcome the contradiction between private profit and social benefit, society should interest itself in this type of investment and should assume responsibility for the task.
21. Many other delegates pointed out that private forest industry was very often effective in sound long-term forest management. Approaches of some other countries toward promoting development, controlling the depletion of forests or for establishing new forests were described. One country outlined its scheme for making and controlling concession agreements with industrial companies. Another described a scheme of tax incentives which encouraged the establishment of forest plantations by foregoing tax revenue of the government.
22. The possibility of encouraging the forestry sector to absorb environmental impact costs by higher prices was noted.
Recommendations
23. Forestry authorities must meet their existing responsibilities and in addition should gain a position of leadership in total wildland management. Newly-emerging social, ecologic and economic values, as well as the more conventional values, must be taken into account.
24. Planning of the forestry resource should be consistent with the objectives of general development within each country. For the great majority of the world's population this means satisfying the primary needs for food, housing, clothing, health, education and other basic requirements.
25. In order that this planning comprise the rational management of the forest and pay respect to ecological limitations, where the objective of maximum long-term social benefit conflicts with short-term maximization of profit, the former should prevail. In this respect the state should play a decisive and leading role and not merely an indicative one.
26. The International Union of Forestry Research Organizations recognizes that, for effective land-use planning, improved land classification systems which incorporate measures of accessibility are needed; hence emphasis must be placed on research in this area. In this same context, there is need for detailed empirical yield data on plantations. International information retrieval systems should be developed as recommended in the reports of other commissions.
27. Wood consumption surveys and timber trends studies should be given urgent priorities by all governments so that meaningful local and national plans, and even regional and world indicative plans, for the forestry and forest industry sectors may be drawn up with the aim of determining ways of meeting the future demands and aspirations of all nations.
28. Because of rapid developments in integrated harvesting and utilization of wood, all countries should review carefully their removal and utilization statistics, with the aim of simplifying the former and strengthening the latter. Because of the proliferation and combining of processed forest products, attention should be given to product classifications. International agencies, and especially FAO) are requested to give immediate attention to the problems of coordination in this area.
29. In the establishing of forest plantations. not only in the creation of new forest areas but also in the replacement of harvested forests, careful attention should be given to choosing the most appropriate locations which need not always be directly related to present areas or earlier operations. This is dealt with also by Commission II.
30. Groups of nations of common ecologic characteristics, development objectives and economic potential should develop and use a regional approach to planning. They should endeavour jointly to obtain capital for development and seek solution to other common problems.
31. A survey of forest policies of all countries should be prepared as a basic document for any future world forestry congress. This has been called for by earlier world forestry congresses also.
32. Maintenance and improvement of the environment should be integrated with the priority objectives of each country. In order that there should be no contradiction between the conservation of the environment in the forest with its other multiple uses, ownership of forestry land as well as its utilization should fulfill a social function; its distribution should be in accordance with the productive efforts of its members.
33. Where forests are managed for social benefits that accrue to the community at large, public funds will be required, and should be granted, to sustain the costs involved. Forest services have demonstrated the ability to do the job facing them, but wood production alone cannot and should not stand the full expense of all forest functions.
34. Forestry administrations should be actively engaged in the decision-making process wherever forestry is involved. They should be provided with financial resources and trained personnel in order to achieve accepted objectives.
35. For any future world forestry congress, the appropriate participation of the representatives of labour. industrial syndicates and financing agencies should be ensured so as to produce a more broadly based approach to the problems of world forestry.
