K. F. S. KingAnalysis and position of forestry development as presented to member governments at the 18th FAO Conference
During the past two years the world has experienced a sharp rise in oil prices, a serious crisis in the availability of food supplies, and a shortage of pulp and paper so severe that schools in many developing countries were closed because there was no paper for textbook production.
Perhaps because of the general recession which engulfed most of the world during this period, together with the continuing and increasing poverty of many of the developing nations, important and wide-ranging resolutions were passed by the General Assembly of the United Nations on Raw Materials and Development and on the establishment of a New International Economic Order.
All these developments have important implications for the forestry and forest industries sector, and for FAO's work in this field.
The increase in oil prices has forced many countries to reappraise the role of wood as a source of energy. Not only is more attention being paid to the utilization of wood for gas and charcoal production, but the fact that most people in developing economies now rely, and must continue to rely, on wood as the main (and sometimes the only) source of energy for cooking and heating has also been dramatically emphasized. These and other factors are certain to affect the silvicultural and management systems in tropical forests, and much of FAO's endeavours in its 1976-77 budget period will be focused on tropical forestry.
Hunger, malnutrition and famine are three of the words which most frequently recur in the social history of the developing countries. In the various forums which have considered the food problems of the world during the past two years the role of the forests has been almost ignored. And yet it is more than a coincidence that in Bangladesh, in Ethiopia, in the Sahel zone and in Somalia, indeed in almost all the areas in which there have been severe food shortages, forest vegetation has been razed to the ground.
The consequences of this have been floods in peak periods of rainfall, and droughts during the dry seasons. Food production has naturally suffered. This failure of food crops will occur again and again in these ecologically brittle regions unless the importance of forestry is both understood and heeded.
There are other attributes of forestry which are important to the general development of the rural peoples of the world. The forestry and forest industries sector has a high labour-absorptive capacity, and its expansion can be of significant importance in the attack on unemployment. The technology employed in the various forest industries ranges from the very simple to the extremely complex. There is therefore some type of forest industry which can be established in any developing country, no matter what its stage of economic development and level of technological sophistication. Most important, foresters have devised means of growing forest crops in conjunction with food crops, so that the production of wood is not achieved at the expense of food production.
This harmonization of forestry with food production and general rural development is another area on which FAO intends to concentrate in the coming years.
The third area to which FAO will devote special attention is pulp and paper. It is evident that FAO should endeavour to assist its member nations to overcome those socioeconomic ills which arise in this modern world from a shortage of paper. But there are other even more positive aspects. If pulp and paper mills are properly conceived, carefully planned and efficiently managed, they can provide considerable benefits for developing countries. These benefits include not only profits, but also the saving and earning of foreign exchange and the provision of direct job opportunities in the forest and in factories. Perhaps of equal importance are the propulsive and catalytic effects of the presence of this industry on other sectors: the introduction of relatively sophisticated technology, and the creation of an ambience of progress which very often has a positive psychological impact on the nation as a whole.
A final cause of concern lies in the type and pattern of trade in forest production. The developing countries still export too high a proportion of wood in its raw unprocessed state, and import in turn manufactured wood products. As a consequence not only does the value added through processing not accrue in the developing countries, but many of those with vast areas of forest resources have continuing balance of trade deficits with respect to the forestry and forest industries sector. FAO will provide advice on the processing of wood raw material, on the state of the markets, on prices, on trends in consumption, and on worldwide plans for the growth in capacity of wood processing mills and factories.
What is FAO's policy with respect to the above forestry problems?
About 55 % of the world's forests are located in the tropics, but in 1973 the value of exports of forest products from tropical developing countries was only about 15% of the world's total trade in these products. Finland and the Congo have land areas and forest estates of approximately the same size. Yet in 1973 the value of forest products exported from Finland was 60 times greater than that from the Congo. Latin America has more than 5 hectares of forest land per person, compared with a world average of about 1 hectare per person. Yet the region imports more timber products, in terms of value, than it exports.
There are many reasons for this unsatisfactory state of affairs. Tropical forests are complex. They are diverse in structure, and contain a very large number of species, the wood properties of which sometimes vary remarkably. Very little is known, with certainty, about the rates of growth of the various species, about the reaction both of individual species and of the forests as a whole to different management practices, and about the characteristics of the wood raw material which exists in the forests.
As a result, tropical forest management in many countries is rudimentary, logging is selective, production costs are high, and large areas of a potential development resource are either neglected or receive scant attention. The struggle to attain some of the objectives of the New International Economic Order will require concerted and sustained action in several areas: forest resource surveys, site diagnosis, afforestation, silviculture and forest management, and institutional building (e.g., education, training, legislation, organizational structures).
To manage a resource efficiently, it is essential to know its location, its quantity, its quality, the cost of mobilizing it, and whether it should be renewed or replaced. Only slightly more than 10% of the tropical forest cover has been surveyed, and most of these surveys were designed and performed in such a way that they do not yield all the information required for sound management.
In the light of the existing situation, a proposal was formulated and submitted by FAO to the United Nations Development Programme for the financing of a "Tropical Forest Cover Monitoring Programme" aimed at obtaining all the data needed to provide the framework for accessibility and land suitability investigations. A pilot project to devise the most appropriate methodology is having its start in West Africa.
In 1976-77 intensive studies of various systems of tropical forest management which are now being practiced in different areas will be undertaken. In addition, a forest management programme will go into effect in selected countries in Asia in order to test certain hypotheses, and to devise effective means of utilizing tropical forests to their utmost capability.
Whatever the systems ultimately devised, however, it is more than probable that natural forests will not always yield products of such value that forestry will be able to compete with other forms of land use. The increasing requirements for food and the growing concern with problems of the environment will inevitably restrict production forestry to smaller areas, from which an increasing demand for forest products will have to be met. Timber plantations, which provide more timber from reduced areas of land, will therefore have to be established.
In this respect, the choice of genetic material is of extreme importance. Efforts to provide suitable seed for the establishment of exotic, fast-growing plantations in tropical countries have not, in the past, been satisfactory. Often the choice of the original seed source has depended more on availability than on adaptability. Moreover, most introductions have tapped only a small fraction of the total genetic variation within the natural range of the species.
The transfer of tree seed from one country to another introduces an international element into seed procurement. All too often both the country of source and the recipient country lack the staff and funds for exploration and seed collection. Only if coordinated international action assists in the rapid identification of the most suitable seed sources, as well as in their evolution, conservation and utilization, can plantation projects achieve their objectives efficiently.
Action so far taken has fallen short of needs. Accordingly, FAO has recently formulated a "Global Programme for Improved Use of Forest Genetic Resources." FAO's proposals cover field programmes as well as supporting activities related to information dissemination, training, research, coordination and seed certification.
The New International Economic Order must be seen as an expression of the desire of the developing countries for economic self-determination. Governments are therefore resolved to plan and control more effectively the utilization of their forest resources as a vehicle for socioeconomic development. However, there are still many institutional obstacles to the rational utilization and replenishment of the forest resource. It is because of this that FAD'S programme has been designed to help countries (a) to improve their planning, administrative and technical capabilities in the forestry and forest industries sector, (b) to develop adequate adjustment mechanisms (research, public information, statistical services, etc.), and (c) to strengthen their forestry education and training systems.
Reference has already been made to the importance of monitoring vegetative cover on critical watersheds. The forest physiognomy is such that it provides an extremely efficient barrier to precipitation. The many-storeyed nature of the forest canopy and the accumulated litter on the forest floor reduce the impact of rainfall on the soil beneath. As a result there is little or no compaction of the forest soil and runoff is retarded. Forests also actively assist infiltration. This is very important, because if runoff is reduced or retarded the only alternative to infiltration is undesirable permanent waterlogging. Because of the high permeability of forest soils and the presence of old root channels the percolation of water downward from the soil surface is improved.
The cumulative effect of these influences of the forest on water movement and water retention in the soil is important to farming communities. If most or all the rainfall is allowed to run off the land surface, existing drainage systems may be unable to accommodate all the water released during the rainy season, and flooding, torrents, siltation of reservoirs and the covering of farmlands may result. On the other hand, by reducing the overland flow during the rainy season and releasing it more slowly in the dry season, when it is most needed, the forests reduce the possibility of both floods and droughts.
Therefore, in the years ahead efforts will be made through both the Regular and Field Programmes of FAO to identify those ecologically critical watersheds and zones which have been denuded of their forest cover. Member nations will then be advised on the techniques to be used in reforesting them. Advice will also be given with respect to those areas now covered by forests which may be threatened with destruction. This advice will include the silvicultural and management system to be employed in their management.
The aim of these efforts is to increase the productivity of those agricultural areas which are within the zone of influence of the watersheds and forests.
A more direct approach lies in FAO's policy to combine forestry and food production in certain regions. The establishment of plantations has become an important aspect of forestry development. Techniques have been evolved which permit the production of food at the same time and on the same area as permanent forest crops. The system has become known as agri-silviculture, and if extensively adopted would lead to considerable increases of both food and wood production in most tropical areas, but especially in those now subject to intense shifting cultivation.
This is particularly important. Over 250 million people in the developing countries eke out a scanty existence from shifting cultivation on 3 to 6 thousand million hectares. By combining the establishment of permanent forests with food production, the harmful effects of shifting cultivation will be removed and, instead of the degraded scrub which usually appears after the cultivators have abandoned the area, there will be forests capable of being utilized for the cultivators' economic well-being.
However, FAO's main thrust in its policy of harmonizing forestry with rural development lies in the creation of job opportunities and in the expansion of the market economies of the villages and other rural population centres. In most member countries emphasis has been placed on increasing the output of timber, either by bringing larger areas of natural forests under management or by establishing plantations. But the possibility of significantly increasing employment through these practices has not been fully considered. Forest operations can employ either labour-intensive or highly mechanized techniques. What is most important, however, is that they can almost always be conducted economically with high labour inputs.
Moreover, although the economic viability of local fuelwood plantations, small sawmills and cottage-level secondary forest industries has been proven, the strategies of rural development adopted by many developing countries have tended to ignore the propulsive effect of this level of operation on the general economy. FAO, by integrating the relevant activities of its Regular and Field Programmes, hopes to demonstrate the importance of these aspects of rural development.
In 1974 the developing countries possessed a mere 6.2% of the world's capacity to produce pulp and paper. FAO has forecast that by 1979 this share of world production will rise by 1.4% to 7.6% - an extremely modest increase. Moreover, FAO's most recent assessment of the future pulp and paper demand supply situation indicates that by the end of the decade there will be a serious world shortage of pulp, paper and paperboard. The countries most seriously affected will be those of the developing world. As a consequence, much of their development effort may suffer, as the basic requirements for education, commerce and communication will not be readily available to them. This despite the fact that most of the world's wood fibre is to be found in these countries.
It was formerly believed that mixed tropical hardwoods were incapable of producing pulp suitable for conversion to most types of paper. However, over the last five years or so there have been remarkable advances in pulp and paper technology. There is now abundant evidence that tropical species may be utilized, in mixture, for the production of the widest range of papers.
The problems of pulp and paper development in tropical countries are not technological, but are essentially confined to capital formation and the availability of trained personnel.
It has been estimated that to establish mills with the combined capacity to produce the paper necessary to eliminate the projected shortages would require an investment of US$7 thousand million, at current costs. The raising of this capital by developing countries is obviously a serious constraint. More important, however, would be the adverse effects such large investments would have on the fragile economies of third world countries if they were made without careful attention being paid to all the consequences of the establishment of pulp and paper projects.
Accordingly, with the help of the United Nations and the World Bank, FAO has this year established a team which includes pulp and paper specialists, resource foresters and both macro and micro economists. This team is in the process of examining the feasibility of establishing various types of pulp and paper projects in selected countries. Only those of proven benefit to the economy of these countries will be recommended for financing.
Skilled managerial and operational personnel will be needed to implement these projects. In the short run the problem of personnel may be solved by employing experts from the developed countries. It is evident that this is not a perfect solution. Not only is the source of supply in the developed world not inexhaustible, but also meaningful development can only be achieved if local personnel are involved at every level of this type of operation. It will therefore be necessary to establish training programmes for people from developing countries to teach them the necessary skills.
Earlier in this section the growing importance of mixed tropical hardwoods as a source of fibre for pulp and paper was emphasized. It should be pointed out, however, that forest plantations have certain advantages which it would be imprudent in the long run to ignore. Some of these are as follows:
- Species can be chosen for specific or a range of purposes and technologies.- The location of plantations can be selected to take advantage not only of the physical and climatic conditions most suitable for growth, but also of port facilities and other infrastructure.
- Growth rates in plantations are generally much higher than in natural forests.
- Costs of production are usually lower in plantations than in natural forests.
- It is more economical to fertilize and to practice tree breeding in plantations than in natural forests.
The strategy for the development of pulp production in the developing economies should therefore be based on an acknowledgement of the two broad types of forests which are obtainable in these countries. The new capacity which should be established to alleviate the projected shortfalls in supply should preferably be located in the developing countries where the raw material exists, and should first utilize the mixed tropical hardwood species. At the same time plantations for the production of wood for pulp should be established to meet future fibre requirements.
As already noted, there is an adverse balance of trade position in the forestry and forest industries sector of the developing countries as a whole. However, over the last quarter of a century, indeed until the current worldwide economic recession, there has been a strong upward trend in the export of tropical hardwood products. From 1960 to 1973 these exports increased by 325 % for logs, 120% for sawnwood, and by nearly 700 % for veneer and plywood. The exports of this last group grew from a very low base; nevertheless the increase in overseas sales has been remarkable. By 1973 the value of these total exports was approximately $3 thousand million.
This success story is not without its serious problems. Fluctuations in market demand in consumer countries usually affect the developing countries first, and often result, not unnaturally, in reduced prices. Unprocessed logs still dominate the trade flow, comprising 70 % of the volume equivalent. The income and other benefits of value added go to the more industrialized countries.
The most serious limitation is due to the predilection of consumers in developed countries for only a few species. This affects the exploitation pattern. Where the preferred species grow gregariously there is a systematic near removal of the forest. Where, as is more common, these species occur only sporadically, they are "creamed" during harvest, with a consequent degrading and waste of the remaining resources.
Many of the species left in the forest after the "creaming" exercise are known to be utilizable. It is tradition which precludes their acceptance in the markets of the developed world. Some developing countries are aware of this and have established national timber export boards. These seek to regulate their trade in wood products and to promote the now unwanted species. In some regions, in West Africa and Asia, for example, groups of countries have got together for this purpose. Five Latin American countries have recently designed a strategy for cooperative research on the technological properties of species of timber. These are welcome developments, and FAO's role will be to assist the developing countries to found and/or to strengthen these organizations and to provide them with more and wider based technical information and market intelligence.
Although much knowledge exists there are still many gaps to be filled. Knowledge already available needs to be put in order. An internationally accepted system of classifying species properties should be developed. Mechanisms for the flow of intelligence on product offer and demand should be greatly improved. Marketing strategies need formulation.
The problems described above do not lend themselves to easy or quick solution. To solve them requires, first, on the part of developing countries, full knowledge and full consciousness of the present value of their resources and of their potential, as well as a firm determination to raise the level of efficiency of their institutions, second, on the part of the developed countries, a sincere readiness to permit a real transfer of incomes and technology to developing countries - a readiness which should be reflected in their investment and trade policies, and third, on the part of both developing and developed countries, a joint effort in the fields of technological research and training of personnel. To meet these needs without friction and wasteful confrontation is the primary justification for international action. Consequently, the primary concern of FAO's Forestry Department is to evolve forms of international action.
K.F.S. King
Assistant Director-General
Forestry Department, FAO
