AUSTRALIA (12 May)
After a satisfactory start to the winter crop planting season earlier this year, a return to drier conditions in late April and early May, especially in the eastern regions, dampened hopes of a bumper output this year. Although it is still too early to estimate the final sown area, as plantings can continue through May and into June, latest indications suggest that the wheat crop could not likely exceed the March forecast of 21.9 million tonnes by the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics (ABARE). The wheat production in 2003 was a record 25 million tonnes. ABARE is also forecasting a 2004 barley crop of almost 8 million tonnes, down from 8.5 million tonnes in 2003 but well up from the drought-affected crop in 2002. The aggregate cereal crop in 2004 is forecast at 34.8 million tonnes, 9 percent down from 2003.