INDIA (5 May)
Harvesting of the 2004 wheat, planted in October/November 2003, is underway and land preparation for sowing of the coarse grain and Kharif rice, oilseeds and groundnuts crops, for harvest from September, has begun. The 2004 wheat crop is revised down to 73 million tonnes from 75 million tonnes due to unusually high temperatures and inadequate precipitation during the maturation stage. However this wheat production is still some 12 percent above the harvest of last year and 3 percent over the average of the previous five years, due to larger area cultivated.
Following a government directive, the Food Corporation of India has discontinued subsidies for export since August 2003 and the private sector is allowed to purchase wheat for export directly from the farmers. Grain merchants can source their requirements from the open market. Exports of wheat during 2003/04 marketing year (April/March) reached around 5.1 million tonnes but are expected to be lower at 2 million tonnes in 2004/05, reflecting low stocks and expected lower government procurement.
Due to good monsoon rains, production of Rabi and Kharif paddy crops in 2003 is officially estimated at 136 million tonnes, some 23 percent higher compared with the drought reduced output in 2002. The export in 2003/04 is estimated at 2.5 million tonnes, significantly lower than in the previous year of 4.4 million tonnes, as a result of reduced stocks. Another good crop is expected for 2004 based on the larger area and expected good rainfalls.
India achieved a record maize output in 2003 of 14.7 million tonnes, 32.3 percent higher than the drought reduced output in 2002 and 25.3 percent above the average of the previous five years. This was due to a combination of a larger area and favourable rainfall conditions. Production in 2004 is tentatively forecast at 15 million tonnes.