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Table 19. Egypt. Co-integration tests, ARDL long run coefficients and ECM representations (monthly data)


Dependent variable

Regressors

sample: Aug 1989 - May 2001

EGWHWS

=

WRWHRP

cointegration *










1.24

-0.09










2.10

-3.47








dEGWHWS

=

dEGWHWS1

dEGWHWS4

dEGWHWS6

dEGWHWS8

dWRWHRP

ecm-1






-0.21

-0.17

-0.23

0.20

0.09

-0.07






-2.50

-2.13

-3.05

2.67

2.81

-3.45




sample: Jan 1969 - May 2001


=

WRWHWS

cointegration *










0.93

-0.19










10.62

-4.95








dEGWHRT

=

dEGWHRT1

dEGWHRT2

dEGWHRT3

dEGWHRT4

dEGWHRT5

dEGWHRT6

dEGWHRT7

dEGWHWS

dEGWHWS1



-0.23

-0.17

-0.18

-0.16

-0.22

-0.22

-0.09

0.66

0.21



-3.83

-2.80

-3.12

-2.89

-4.10

-4.05

-1.62

21.40

3.96



dEGWHWS2

dEGWHWS3

dEGWHWS4

dEGWHWS5

dEGWHWS6

dEGWHWS7

dEGWHWS8

ecm-1




0.15

0.15

0.17

0.20

0.19

0.10

0.09

-0.07




2.79

2.86

3.35

3.89

3.78

2.05

2.99

-1.93


sample: Jan 1969 - May 2001

EGSHRT

=

EGSHWS

cointegration *










1.00

-0.22










-23.21

-5.27








dEGSHRT

=

dEGSHRT1

dEGSHRT4

dEGSHRT6

dEGSHRT7

dEGSHWS

dEGSHWS1

dEGSHWS2

dEGSHWS3

dEGSHWS4



-0.21

-0.14

-0.11

-0.08

0.77

0.19

0.15

0.13

0.13



-3.48

-2.62

-2.18

-2.53

-23.94

-3.24

-2.69

-2.35

-2.31



dEGSHWS5

dEGSHWS6

ecm-1









0.12

0.13

-0.12









2.26

2.62

-2.77







sample: Jan 1969 - Jul 1989

EGBMWS

=

WRBMRP

cointegration *










-0.71

-0.11










-3.26

-3.50








dEGBMWS

=

dWRBMRP

ecm-1










-0.06

-0.09










-2.58

-3.45








sample: Jan 1969 - May 2001

EGBMRT

=

EGBMWS

cointegration *










1.03

-0.25










62.95

-5.24








dEGBMRT

=

dEGBMRT1

dEGBMRT11

dEGBMWS

dEGBMWS1

ecm-1







-0.16

0.14

0.82

0.18

-0.28







-3.11

4.42

24.77

3.34

-6.93





see Table 1 for variables' names

* figures reported are the ADF coefficients and t values for the level of the residual of the static regression between the two variables reported on the left. This corresponds to the Engle and Granger (1987) test for cointegration source: own calculation on ESCB price data


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