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Table 22. Ethiopia. Co-integration tests, ARDL long run coefficients and ECM representations (monthly data)


Dependent variable

Regressors

sample: Sept 1993 - May 2001

4

=

WRWHRP

cointegration *





-0.43

-0.31





-4.25

-3.53



dETWHRT

=

dETWHRT1

dETWHRT3

dWRWHRP

ecm(-1)



0.32

0.26

-0.14

-0.33



2.84

2.29

-3.41

-4.06

sample: Sept 1993 - May 2001

ETMZRT

=

WRMZRP

cointegration *





-0.86

-0.43





-3.35

-3.83



dETMZRT

=

dWRMZRP

dWRMZRP2

dWRMZRP3

ecm(-1)



-0.53

-0.50

0.60

-0.32



-2.03

-1.90

2.46

-3.71

sample: Sept 1993 - May 2001

ETMZPR

=

WRMZRP

cointegration *





-1.48

-0.26





-2.14

-3.70



dETMZPR

=

dETMZPR1

dWRMZRP3

ecm(-1)




0.37

0.55

-0.25




2.74

2.54

-3.02


sample: Sept 1993 - May 2001

ETSHRT

=

WRSHRP

cointegration *





-0.83

-0.56





-2.28

-3.50



dETSHRT

=

ecm(-1)






-0.20






-2.54




see Table 1 for variables' names

d = differences; 1, 2, 3,... = differences lagged 1, 2, 3,...

* figures reported are the ADF coefficients and t values for the level of the residual of the static regression between the two variables reported on the left. This corresponds to the Engle and Granger (1987) test for cointegration source: own calculation on ESCB price data


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