BRAZIL (1 October)
Harvest of 2004 winter wheat crop has started in some parts of the main producing southern states of Paraná and Rio Grande do Sul, which account to approximately 90 percent of national production. Normal to abundant rains resumed at the beginning of September, but the adverse effects of a previous dry spell may induce a downward revision of early official forecasts that anticipated a bumper crop of 6.2 million tonnes, about 1.5 per cent higher than the very good output obtained the previous year. Harvesting of the 2004 second season maize crop (safrinha) is well advanced in Centre-South producing states and production is estimated at 10.6 million tonnes. This represents a decline of about 20 per cent compared to last year’s record crop and it is essentially due to the negative effects of dry and hot weather at the beginning of the season and of heavy rains at the end of it. In particular, maize crop output in the key producing state of Parana is expected to decline about 34 percent, from 5.5 million tonnes in 2003 to 3.7 million tonnes in 2004. Total maize production for 2004 is provisionally estimated at 42 million tonnes, about 13 per cent less than 2003 record crop. Despite this reduction and due to stocks available from the previous harvest, the country is not likely to face any problems with maize supply and exports of some 4.8 million tonnes are presently forecast in marketing year 2004/05 (April/March). 2004 paddy production is also estimated at record level of 12.8 million tonnes, largely due to high prices and favourable weather conditions that determined an increase in area planted and better yields.