CHINA (4 October)
Floods in China (Mainland) this year killed more than 1 000 people, affected about 114.7 million and destroyed 650 000 village homes. The direct economic losses are estimated at 64.7 billion yuan (or US$7.82 billion).
Harvesting of winter wheat was completed in May-June and spring wheat in July-August. Despite a 1 percent decline in planted area, the aggregate 2004 wheat output is estimated at 91 million tonnes, up 4.5 million tonnes or 5 percent on last year. However, this production is still 6 percent below the average of the previous five years. China’s wheat net import requirement in 2004/05 is forecast to increase from last year’s 1 million tonnes to 6 million tonnes, reflecting a very low level of beginning stock.
Harvesting of maize in southern areas was completed in August, while it is still ongoing in northern provinces. The latest estimate points to an output of 120 million tonnes, up 4 percent on last year and 4 percent over the average of the previous five years. The maize area planted in 2004 is also below last year and average, but yield is estimated higher. Despite this increase in production, China’s maize net export in 2004/05 is still expected to decline to some 4 million tonnes (July-June) from last year’s 11.3 million tonnes, due to low beginning stocks.
Aggregate paddy production in 2004 is forecast at 181 million tonnes, 12.5 percent higher than 2003 and 0.5 percent above the average of the previous five years, reflecting both larger area and higher yield. With this rice production, China’s rice net export in 2004/05 is expected to increase to 1.2 million tonnes from last year’s 0.6 million tonnes.
Total cereal production in 2004 is forecast at 350 million tonnes, up 8.2 percent on last year, marking the first increase in year on year production since 1998, as a result of good weather and a series of government incentive support policies. However, China is expected to change its net trade position in cereals from a net exporter in 2003/04 (July-June with net export of 9.6 million tonnes) to a net importer in 2004/05 (with net import 3 million tonnes).