EU (11 October)
Cereal output in the EU-25 is estimated to total some 275 million tonnes, 41 million tonnes more than the drought-struck output for these countries in 2003 and well above the average of the past five years. By cereal type, the largest increase, in percentage terms, has been for wheat, output of which is estimated at almost 130 million tonnes, compared to just 107 million tonnes last year. A substantial rise in coarse grains production is also estimated, with the aggregate output for the 25 countries now put at 144 million tonnes, 15 percent up from 2003. While improved harvests were gathered this year in most countries throughout the EU, compared to 2003, the crops in Spain, and the new member countries Hungary and Romania, are estimated to be particularly good compared to the average of the past five years. Following the increased in production, the aggregate cereal inventories of the EU-25 at the end of the 2004/05 marketing year (July/June) are expected to increase by about 4 million tonnes compared to their reduced opening level.
The winter cereal crops for harvest in 2005 are already mostly planted and germinated in northern parts of the EU, where topsoil moisture for establishment has been generally adequate. Further to the south in parts of Spain, France and Italy, prevailing dry weather in the past few weeks has aided summer crop harvesting and field preparation for winter crop planting but some precipitation would be beneficial in October to ensure good winter crop germination and establishment.
In Estonia, harvesting is nearly complete and aggregate cereal harvest is estimated at about 515 000 tonnes from a planted area of 254 000 hectares. This aggregate is about 18 000 tonnes down on last year’s harvest and includes some 240 000 tonnes of barley, 150 000 tonnes of wheat and 40 000 tonnes of rye. Estonia relies on commercial imports to meet consumption requirements. Aggregate cereal import requirement for the 2004/05 marketing year is forecast at about 258 000 tonnes.
In Latvia, cereal harvesting is nearly complete and aggregate harvest is estimated at about 980 000 tonnes, which is similar to the harvests of the past few years from an estimated area of 369 000 hectares. This aggregate includes some 400 000 tonnes of wheat, 295 000 tonnes of barley and 150 000 tonnes of rye. Aggregate cereal import requirement for the 2004/05 marketing year is estimated at about 156 000 tonnes and exports at 72 000 tonnes.
In Lithuania, latest reports point to an estimated aggregate cereal harvest of 2.3 million tonnes, nearly 200 000 tonnes down on last year’s good harvest. This aggregate includes some 790 000 tonnes of wheat, 970 000 tonnes of barley and 420 000 tonnes of rye. Aggregate cereal exports during the 2004/05 marketing year is forecast at about 261 000 tonnes, while imports during the same period is estimated at 264 000 tonnes.