INDIA (4 October)
Heavy rains in July caused severe floods, which killed at least 1 200 people. The worst-hit northeast states of Bihar and Assam, the major rice growing region, were badly affected by monsoon rains. At least 33 million people were affected in these two states with more than 900 killed in the disaster and some 1.3 million forced to take refuge in relief camps. According to United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) assessment, 1.15 million hectares of crops in Bihar have been affected and nearly 600 000 dwellings have been damaged or destroyed. The situation in both Assam and Bihar, however, continues to improve with no further heavy rainfalls in the past month. With the monsoon season approaching its conclusion, the threat of further flooding is diminishing. On the other hand, some states in northern and western India have experienced drought conditions.
Harvesting of Kharif paddy and coarse grains is underway. Paddy production is tentatively forecast at 127.5 million tonnes, almost 9 million tonnes below the previous forecast and 3 million tonnes less than in 2003, reflecting the negative impact of both floods and droughts. However, this production level is almost the same as the average of the previous five years. Maize output is expected to be 15 million tonnes, some 2 percent above the record output of last year, and 20 percent above the average of the previous years.
The wheat crop in India, harvested in April/May, is officially estimated at almost 73 million tonnes, about 12 percent up on 2003, reflecting a significant increase in areas and a recovery of yields.
India was one of the world’s largest exporters in wheat and rice in 2003/04 and exported 5 million tonnes of wheat and 2.8 million tonnes of rice. The export levels in 2004/05 are expected to be lower due to reduced production and tight stocks and are forecast at 1 million tonnes of wheat and 2 million tonnes of rice.