MALAWI* (23 September)
An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission in April 2004 estimated the 2004 cereal output at 1.8 million tonnes, a decline of about 14 percent from the near-average production of last year. Much of this output is maize estimated at 1.7 million tonnes. Delayed, erratic and generally inadequate rainfall especially in the southern half of the country was responsible for this decline. In addition, the mission estimated an increase of about 14 percent over the previous year in the production of roots and tubers (cassava and potatoes) to 4.2 million tonnes fresh weight or 1.2 million tonnes in cereal equivalent. Total cereal import requirement is estimated at 408 000 tonnes, which is expected to be largely met through commercial imports.
The Vulnerability Assessment Committee (VAC) estimated that about 1.26 million vulnerable people including those in areas that experienced crop failures and those seriously affected by HIV/AIDS would require emergency food assistance to the tune of 56 000 tonnes of cereals during the 2004/05 marketing year (April/March).
The World Bank (US$ 25 million) and Norway (about US$ 3 million) recently announced disbursements to Malawi in support of the country's Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) and in balance of payments support.
During the post-harvest period (since May) maize prices in most markets slowed down their usual decline. In most markets September 2004 prices were consistently higher than the September 2003 prices (FEWS-NET). However, these prices are generally lower than the 2002 corresponding prices. Maize from Mozambique has been coming into southern Malawi indicating significant cross-border informal trade activity helping to stabilize prices around 17-20 MK/kg. Recently ADMARC has set price of maize at 17 MK/kg.
The importance of winter maize in Malawi has been increasing in recent years. The National Statistics Office (NSO) has forecast production of 226 000 tonnes for this year's October-November harvest which will be slightly over the previous year’s output.