MONGOLIA* (4 October)
After four years of consecutive dzud (severe winter with drought summer), the 2003/04 winter turned out to be not so harsh and severe and loss of livestock was much less. The number of livestock at the end of 2003 had increased by some 6 percent compared with 2002. In the first quarter of 2003, Mongolia lost 624 000 adult animals compared to 93 000 in the first quarter of 2004.
Harvesting of the 2004 wheat crop, virtually the only cereal produced in the country, is underway. The summer rains from May to September this year were much less than normal, nationally, and very poor in the major wheat growing regions with the cumulative seasonal rainfall 40-50 percent below normal by the end of September. 2004 wheat output is tentatively estimated at 112 000 tonnes, 34 percent below last year. Other crops, mainly potatoes and vegetables, also are forecast to be a very poor harvest this year.
To cover domestic consumption requirements for the 2004/05 marketing year (October/September) the country will need to import an estimated 283 000 tonnes of cereals. Given that the country has a serious balance of payment problem, commercial imports will only cover part of this requirement and food aid will be necessary to meet the deficit. Dzud and drought conditions in Mongolia have substantially depleted household coping mechanisms and have resulted in an increase in poverty.