Highlights

World cereal production in 2007 is forecast by FAO to increase some 4 percent to a record 2 082 million tonnes. The bulk of the increase is expected in maize, with a bumper crop already being gathered in South America, and a sharp increase in plantings expected in the United States. A significant rise in wheat output is also foreseen, with a recovery in some major exporting countries’ crops after weather problems last year.

Another good cereal crop likely in 2007 in the group of Low-Income Food-Deficit countries (LIFDCs). Although still highly tentative, FAO's first forecast indicates that for the LIFDCs as a group, the 2007 cereal production could remain around the above-average level of 2006. In Southern Africa, the 2007 main season harvest is underway. Preliminary forecasts put aggregate maize production at 14.8 million tonnes, about the same as last year’s below average crop. However, prospects vary considerably from country to country with significant crop losses due to floods in some parts, and reduced yields due to persistent dry weather in others.

In Southern Africa, the 2007 main season harvest is underway. Preliminary forecasts put aggregate maize production at 14.8 million tonnes, about the same as last year’s below average crop. However, prospects vary considerably from country to country with significant crop losses due to floods in some parts, and reduced yields due to persistent dry weather in others.

In Eastern Africa, the outcome of the 2006/07 secondary season crops, just completed in most countries, has been generally good. Thus, following above-average to bumper first season crops in many countries, a record aggregate cereal output is confirmed for 2006/07, improving the overall food situation.

In Latin America and the Caribbean region the first of the 2007 cereal crops are already being harvested. Record 2007 main season maize crops are being gathered in South America, where the planted area increased in response to strong demand, largely for ethanol production, and yields increased with the benefit of good weather. A good wheat crop is being harvested in Mexico, the main producing country in Central America and the Caribbean.

In Bolivia, contrary to the favourable harvest and food outlook for the Latin American and Caribbean region as a whole, severe weather excesses ranging from torrential rains in some parts to drought in others have caused extensive damage to agriculture and the food security of vulnerable rural communities is threatened.