S. L. Pringle
S.L. PRINGLE, forester and economist, heads the Forest Economics and Statistics Unit of the FAO Forestry Department. This article is adapted from a paper delivered in June 1976 to the 29th Congress of the International Federation of Newspaper Publishers held in Bologna.
Where will pulp supplies come from in the next 10 to 25 years? Which areas of the world will be in deficit ? Which self-sufficient ? What factors will influence these developments? In drawing a picture of the future world wood pulp situation the author is convinced that developing tropical and sub-tropical countries will become big new sources of wood pulp for paper
In the quarter of a century from 1949 to 1974 world output of pulp expanded from 29 to 120 million tons. Five countries of the north temperate zone - the United States, Canada, Sweden, Finland and Norway - which accounted for 81 percent of world production in 1949, still made up 69 percent in 1974. But many important changes have occurred: the U.S.S.R. and Japan have become the third and fourth largest producers, surpassing the three Nordic countries. The latter have shifted from being wood exporters to being dependent on imported wood supplies for an increasing portion of pulp production.
Consumption of pulp and its manufacture into paper have also been heavily concentrated in relatively few countries. More than half of world production of paper now takes place in three countries, the United States, Japan and Canada. Together with seven more countries, they account for more than four fifths of output. Six of these ten are, however, net importers of pulp and these imports have been increasing. However, there has been a distinct trend to process more pulp into paper in the pulp-producing countries. As a result, trade in paper increased from 12 percent of production in 1960 to 19 percent in 1974, compared to a limited change from 15 percent to 16 percent for pulp.
Many of the highly industrialized countries have increased their output of wood products to, or near to, the maximum sustainable level of forest output and have had to limit increased output largely to that possible through making better use of the wood harvested or through increasingly more intensive inputs into forest management. A rapid increase in exports from relatively wood-rich countries to those with more limited supplies has been very evident.
Two major trends in improving the efficiency of raw material use de serve special attention. One is the pulping of the wood residues from other forest industries such as saw milling, veneer and plywood mills and woodworking plants. This has lead to the creation of combined forest industry complexes and to the planned joint use of wood raw material in order to maximize its yield with respects to two or more products. The other major trend is in the increased recycling of waste paper in mixture with virgin pulps.
The United States, the European Economic Community (EEC) and Japan account for more than two thirds of all world consumption of paper All these regions, especially the EEC and Japan, are net importers of paper or its raw materials-the first of pa per and pulp and the latter of pulp and pulpwood-as well as substantial users of waste paper. Canada, the Nordic countries, and, to a lesser extent, the U.S.S.R. are net exporters Canada of paper, pulp and wood northern Europe of paper and pulp while, paradoxically, it is a net importer of pulpwood, much of it coming from the U.S.S.R., which also supplies eastern Europe with some pulp and paper.
PULPWOOD AT A EUROPEAN MILL the supply is expected to shrink between now and the end of the century
The United States is relatively self-sufficient, but the EEC is heavily dependent on outside sources of pulp and paper while Canada and the Nordic countries export four fifths or more of their output. The developing countries import a very substantial portion of their requirements, although some Asian countries make substantial exports of pulpwood.
The 1974 world output of pulp has required the input of about 435 million cubic metres of wood (with more than one quarter of this coming from industrial wood residues) as well as considerable amounts of bamboo, bagasse and other non-wood fibres.
Increases in consumption of paper may, of course, result both from a more intensive use of waste paper and from an increase in the supply of virgin pulp. The latter must result from a greater input of basic raw materials-wood and other cellulose materials.
In the medium term, however, pulp production will be necessarily limited to maximum output of existing mills or those in the process of establishment. Mills take three years or more to construct and the planning horizon is considerably longer, often a minimum of five to seven years.
To appraise the medium-term possibilities, we may turn to the recently released FAO Survey of Pulp and Paper Capacities, 1975-1980 which collates the outlook of the industry for the next five years. Figures for the first three are quite firm but can be varied slightly by speeding up, postponing or slowing down construction, particularly of improvements. The data for the fourth and fifth years can still be affected either downward or upward by current decisions.
The survey reports a planned increase from 1975 to 1980 of 25.4 million tons of paper pulp (including 2.6 million tons of non-wood fibre pulps) and 31.1 million tons of paper and paperboard. This expected growth in pulp capacity is up nearly three million tons from that of the 1970-75 period, while the expansion in paper and paperboard capacity is more than three million tons less than that of the previous five-year period. However, for both product groups, the rate of growth shows a successive decline over the last three five-year periods.
It is interesting to note, nevertheless, that the rate of growth for both news print and its primary raw material, mechanical wood pulp, is up considerably from the low expansion rates of the 1970-75 period.
MAJOR NEW AND INCREASED SOURCES OF PULPWOOD
|
SOURCE |
TYPE |
MAIN AREAS |
ADVANTAGES |
DISADVANTAGES |
|
EXISTING FORESTS |
||||
|
Areas under management and exploitation |
||||
|
1. Increased salvage of processing residues |
Conifers hardwoods |
Regions of concentrated sawmilling, veneer and plywood production and other wood-working |
Supplies often near pulping locations |
Utilization levels already high in areas of best opportunity, United States, Canada, northern Europe, Fed. Rep. of Germany |
|
Avoids disposal and pollution problems |
Competition from fibreboard and particle board markets |
|||
|
(See also 4c below) |
|
Cost increases rapidly with scattered small production |
||
|
2. Salvage additional logging residues (tops, benches, partly defective boles, stumps, etc.) |
Conifers hardwoods |
Sawlog and veneer log producing regions. Large coniferous logs in western North America, hardwoods in United States, Europe |
Supplies often near pulping locations |
Apt to be very costly unless integrated operation. Costs rise rapidly with smaller sizes, more crooked material, etc. |
|
3. Harvest lower quality stands (less dense, poorer trees, etc.) |
Conifers hardwoods |
Largely less accessible areas near margins of exploited forests |
Spreads overhead costs of roads, etc. |
May be on poor sites and create reestablishment and protection problems. Costs rise rapidly as quality declines |
|
4. Increase species range |
(a) Conifers |
Limited opportunity |
|
|
|
(b) Temperate hardwoods |
Eastern & northern United States, southern U.S.S.R., France, Yugoslavia, Australia, India |
Large qualities often available |
Pulping qualities may be less preferred. Stands often scattered |
|
|
(c) Tropical hardwoods |
West Africa, southeast Asia, Amazon |
Immense quantities available |
Problem in assuming a uniform mix of diverse species from forests that may vary in species distribution |
|
|
5. Divert fuelwood |
Mostly hardwood |
U.S.S.R., European countries For most pulp-producing regions little remaining opportunity |
Has put wood to higher value use |
Often scattered stand: costly collections. Fuellwood values have improved |
|
6. Increase silviculture treatment (more frequent thinning fertilization, improved regulation stand conversion, fire protection) |
Conifers hardwood |
More accessible and frequently harvested stand |
Reduced transportation costs and logging overheads |
Time lag in returns Declining rate of returns with intensification |
|
Unexploited more remote areas |
Conifers |
Interior British Columbia, north Ontario & Quebec, Siberia, Mexico & Central America |
Favoured species |
Increased logging and transportation costs. For some regions, e.g. Siberia, rate of development must be slow and gradual |
|
Temperate hardwoods |
Northern Canada, Australia and eastern U.S.S.R. |
Large quantities available |
Increased costs of logging and transportation |
|
|
Tropical hardwoods |
See above |
See above |
See above |
|
|
AFFORESTATION |
Conifers |
Rapid growing areas in mild temperate and in higher elevations of tropics |
Concentrated and systematically planned harvesting possibilities in selected sites |
High establishment cost Problem of alternate land use |
|
Hardwoods (especially eucalyptus and poplar) |
Wide growing range Many areas of tropics, Mediterranean and temperate zones |
Rapid growth, short rotation, often cheap labour |
Possible limit to short-fibre demand |
|
The proportion of pulp to paper and board capacity has moved steadily downward from a 1967 high of 82.8 percent, when there was an obvious surplus of pulp relative to paper, to a forecasted low of 76.8 in 1977. The shift in this proportion has recognized the previous pulp supply surplus and the increasing use of waste paper but the reduced proportion could lead to a period in which pulp capacity is inadequate to match paper capacity with the existing fibre utilization rations. The proportion is forecast to improve to 78.4 in 1980.
Calculations suggest, for the market economies as a whole, an inadequacy in 1977 of more than five million tons of pulp corresponding to more than seven million tons of paper if capacity were fully utilized. However, there remains doubt that economic recovery will have occurred to this level by 1977 and in any event there exists a stockpile of pulp resulting from one or two countries maintaining operating ratios in excess of market requirements. Even by 1980, pulp capacities of these regions could be inadequate to supply the full requirements of the paper mill capacities unless there were a substantial increase in their average waste paper utilization rate from the present 25 percent to 27 percent over the five-year period.
Whether full paper capacity foreseen to 1980 is adequate for the prospective demand is a much more complex problem not to be explored here.
Full use of world pulp capacity in 1980 would require an increased wood input over 1974 of some 85 million m³ as well as more than a 25 percent increase in the volume of other fibres used (very largely in Asia and Latin America) and would result in nearly 25 million tons more than actual 1975 peak production of about 125 million tons.
The distribution of the foreseen increases do, however, call for some additional remarks. Of the roughly 25 million ton increase in pulp capacity, 4.5 million tons are foreseen to be established in planned-economy countries and nearly 7 million tons in developing market economies, of which more than 5 million tons in Latin America, with Brazil alone accounting for nearly 3.5 million tons.
This differential expansion has major implications for regional balances and trade patterns, particularly as the paper capacity increases do not parallel with those of pulp. As a result the pulp input requirement of the developed countries as a whole (to supply their paper capacity) increases by more than 2 million tons, with notable increases in the EEC and Japan. The export surplus of northern Europe declines. There is, however, a positive change seen for North America toward the end of the period resulting from relative improvements in the proportion of pulp to paper capacity, especially in the United States. With the existing forecasts, it appears that the developing countries as a whole can become net exporters of pulp. The surplus comes from Brazil while all other regions improve their relative self-sufficiency in pulp.
The future long-term supply situation depends largely on the extent to which:
1. The United States can retain its self-sufficiency position by a wide variety of approaches.2. The EEC and Japan find it possible to limit import requirements through intensifying the recycling of waste paper and making better use of their limited forest potentials.
3. Northern European countries can intensify their forest management practices.
4. The U.S.S.R. expands its export potentials, especially of Siberia, in the face of increasing domestic requirements.
5. Canada will make use of its more remote forests, and intensify use of those now under exploitation.
6. The large resources of the tropical forest areas of developing regions can be mobilized to satisfy rapidly increasing domestic needs and even to export from favoured locations.
7. Technological developments which would permit greater pulp yields from wood, fuller use of wood volumes harvested by whole tree logging, less costly management, harvesting and processing of mixed tropical woods of numerous species, often with many different densities and varied geographic distribution, and improved efficiency in harvesting or collecting fibres other than wood.
8. The extent to which other forest-product industries, particularly the particle board and fibreboard industries, compete with the pulp industry for a supply of raw material.
In reviewing the longer term prospects for increased fibre output, a number of fibre sources and efficiency measures should be examined: waste paper utilization, wood residue utilization, new sources of wood fibre, other fibre use, and technological innovations. We will examine each of these in turn.
In 1974 waste paper made up 39 million tons (or 24 percent) of the 160 million tons of total fibre consumption. The waste paper consumption rate varies widely from country to country and in most cases has increased considerably over the past 20 years or so. By consumption rate we mean waste paper consumed as a percentage of total papermaking fibres consumed in paper production. The current consumption rate in Europe is about 28 percent, but this varies from little more than 5 percent in the Nordic countries to 40 percent or more for paper produced in EEC countries with individual countries showing rates of around 50 percent. The consumption rate is, of course, initially affected by the availability of waste paper, although only in a few cases has this appeared limiting.
The maximum recovery rate, by which we mean waste paper collected as a percentage of total paper consumed, is perhaps suggested by the United Kingdom wartime rate of 62 percent. Current recovery rates are 40 percent or more in the Netherlands, Switzerland and Japan. A study, European timber and prospects, by FAO/ECE¹ suggests European recovery rates may grow to 35-45 percent by the end of the century.
¹FAO/ECE refers to the Joint FAO European Economic Commission Timber Division which is located at the United Nations European office in Geneva.
The actual and potential consumption and recovery rates are affected by many factors such as the nature and intensity of consumption of paper products, the available collection systems, the types and quantities of paper produced and the relative availability of virgin fibres. A most important consideration is the relation of total paper consumption to paper production. Although the consumption rate may grow to a very high level in a country consuming large quantities of imported paper and producing relatively low quantities, such as the United Kingdom or the Federal Republic of Germany, the situation is reversed for primary exporters such as Canada or Finland.
Many factors favour the increased use of waste paper, including the rising cost of new fibres and numerous aspects of pollution control. The relative use of waste paper may be expected to grow for some time but at a fairly modest and declining rate.
Over the last quarter of a century there have been rapid developments in the use of wood residues as a raw material for pulp, fibreboard and particle board. In Europe, for example, use of wood residues increased from an estimated annual average of 5 million m³ in 1949-51, to 13 million m³ in 1959-61, to 30 million m³ in 1969-71 and to 40 million m³ in 1974. Furthermore, recent developments in profile sawing, such as the "chip-and-saw" machinery, have led to a larger portion of raw material which initially went through sawmills being turned into wood chips now. In fact, there has been a change in policy from using residues from wood-using plants to one of the planned joint use of raw materials. The supply of this added source of raw material for industry with little or no additional drain on the forest must ultimately be limited by the maximum level of residue recovery and thereafter can expand only as sawnwood, veneer, plywood and other basic wood-using industries expand.
In 1970-72, as much as 28 percent of utilized log volume was used as chipped residues for pulp, fibreboard and particle board in North America where utilization was most intense.
In Europe, the utilization level was only 18 percent, although in northern Europe it reached nearly one third, as it did also in Canada. With approximately 60 percent product yield of the log volumes used for sawn-wood, veneer and plywood, this would indicate a recovery of about 80 percent of the residual volumes available. By 1974, this figure had reached 53 percent for Europe. For the world as a whole, the recovery of residue for these uses falls far short of this level. Japan is a special case where the high yield of sawn-wood and veneer-more than 70 percent-precludes the availability of a high residue yield.
In addition to wood residues and chips produced in conjunction with sawing, considerable quantities of chips are produced directly from roundwood. Statistically, it may be difficult to distinguish these from residues.
For the world, it is estimated that in 1974 about 85 million m³ of pulpwood were used for particle board and fibreboard in addition to the 435 million m³ used for pulp. Of these 520 million m³ about 155 million m³ were in the form of wood residues or chips or produced jointly with sawn-wood production. It has been estimated that, by 1985, residues could furnish 220 million m³. The recent European study foresees the possibility of 70 to 80 million tons of residues utilized in Europe alone by the year 2000, about twice the 1973 level. However, it is clear that the very rapidly growing particle board industry will claim an increasing share of these residues.
The expansion of pulp and paper production has been at a considerably higher rate than has the production of roundwood pulpwood from the forest. This is because of the rapid expansion of fibre supply made possible by increased waste paper use and especially through the rapid development of wood residue use. As has been seen, this expansion will continue but it must gradually come into line with the growth rates in production of virgin pulp and of sawn-wood, veneer and plywood. Hence, it may be expected that increases in wood harvested from the forest must again become more critical in limiting pulp and paper supplies.
A major "new" source of pulpwood over the past quarter of a century has been the less traditional non-coniferous species. In 1950, the United States, then in the forefront of hardwood pulping, used only 14 percent of its round pulpwood in the form of broadleaved or hardwood species. By 1974, this share had grown to 32 percent. For the world, the corresponding figure has grown from 18 percent in 1961 to 27 percent in 1974. In Japan, with heavy use of domestic hardwoods both in the round as well as chips from industrial residues from both domestic and imported hardwood logs, the share of hardwoods increased from 15 percent in 1956 to well over 50 percent in the 1970s.
In the Nordic countries of Finland, Norway and Sweden, with predominantly coniferous forests, hardwood pulpwood removals grew from less than 3 percent of total pulp wood removals in 1950 to more than 16 percent in 1927.
Table 1. - INDUSTRIAL WOOD REMOVALS IN RELATION TO FOREST GROWING STOCK (1973)
|
Species group |
Region or country |
Growing stock in closed forests |
Industrial wood removals |
|
|
1 000 million m³ |
Million m³ |
Percent of growing stock |
||
|
All |
World |
287 |
1 345 |
0.5 |
|
Conifers
|
World |
107 |
948 |
0.9 |
|
United States |
12 |
247 |
2.0 |
|
|
Canada |
14 |
130 |
0.9 |
|
|
Northern Europe |
3.6 |
89 |
2.5 |
|
|
EEC |
1.5 |
42 |
2. 8 |
|
|
Other western Europe |
2.1 |
26 |
1.2 |
|
|
Japan |
1.1 |
25 |
2.3 |
|
|
Eastern Europe |
2.3 |
42 |
1.8 |
|
|
U.S.S.R |
61 |
264 |
0.4 |
|
|
All other |
9.4 |
83 |
0.9 |
|
|
Broadleaved |
World |
180 |
397 |
0.2 |
|
Temperate |
35 |
250 |
0.7 |
|
|
United States |
5.9 |
75 |
1.3 |
|
|
Canada |
3.6 |
11 |
0.3 |
|
|
Northern Europe |
0.67 |
10 |
1.5 |
|
|
EEC |
1.4 |
27 |
1.9 |
|
|
Other western Europe |
1.5 |
12 |
0.9 |
|
|
Japan |
0.9 |
17 |
1.9 |
|
|
Eastern Europe |
1.6 |
22 |
1.3 |
|
|
U.S.S.R. |
12 |
34 |
0.3 |
|
|
All other |
7.5 |
42 |
0.6 |
|
|
Tropical |
145 |
147 |
0.1 |
|
|
Asia - Far East |
25 |
87 |
0.3 |
|
|
Africa |
42 |
31 |
0.1 |
|
|
Latin America |
78 |
29 |
0.04 |
|
This rapid growth in the relative proportion of broadleaved species for pulping has, of course, been made possible by technical developments in the pulp and paper manufacturing processes. But it has been abetted by prices of standing hardwood timber, lower than those of coniferous species, allowing mills to secure cheaper wood supplies. Together with the greater pulp yields possible, this has permitted pulp manufacturers to provide short-fibre hardwood pulps at lower prices than long-fibre pulps. As the short-fibre hardwood pulps are adequate, even preferable for some uses, they have been in heavy demand by paper manufacturers.
The expansion of the short-fibre share in wood pulp will inevitably be limited by a number of factors. There is an upper limit, economic and technical, to the proportion of this type of pulp for some uses because of the strength characteristic. As the demand for hardwoods grows, their relative cost advantage will tend to decline. Indeed, in some areas it appears to have done so already. There is, of course, a limit to available hardwood supplies and in some temperate countries, which had earlier essentially stopped increase of coniferous pulpwood production, the hardwood limit has now been reached or will be in the near future.
In Table 1, 1973 removals of all industrial wood shown by country or region are related to the growing stock or standing wood volume in closed forests (i.e., excluding open low-density woodlands). The last column shows the percentage that the former is of the latter and reflects the intensity of forest use or exploitation. Where the percentage is above two, the forest may be considered to be quite intensively used, as are conifers in the EEC, northern Europe, Japan and perhaps the United States. By contrast, percentages below one clearly indicate an under-use of the forest and a remaining potential, although this may be because of poor accessibility or the presence of less sought-after species and qualities. For both conifers and broadleaved species, the U.S.S.R. and Canada are notably underexploited, as are the non-conifers in all the tropical regions and especially Latin America, and it is in these countries and regions where harvesting may be extended to new areas or to unused species and qualities. In countries where the forests are more heavily used, there still remain a variety of intensive approaches to increase wood supplies and these are often possible because of the high levels of demand in heavily populated and industrialized areas.
The chart gives some indication of the wide range of sources for "new" wood supplies. These range from increased salvage of logging and industrial wood residues in areas now already extensively managed to harvesting currently unused or little-used species and grades in more remote areas. A major potential source is, of course, forest plantings, especially in those areas which can produce rapid rates of growth. Here the potential volume increases, in relation to the areas involved, are often great. The pattern of expansion of future production across the range of potentials will depend on many factors, not the least of which are the relative geographic rates of economic expansion and the nature and speed of technological developments. Large increases in wood production are still readily possible on many fronts, but inevitably the relative costs of obtaining them must increase.
It may be useful to summarize some of the findings of recent demand and supply outlook studies with respect to future wood or pulp and paper production.
A study now in progress, the FAO/ECE European timber trends and prospects, 1950-2000, sees the possibility of increasing industrial wood harvests of Europe (including Turkey) from the 273 million m³ level of 1974 to 355, or even to 440 million m³, by the year 2000, according to the degree of favourable economic climate and intensity of forest management. The increases are spread across all regions but a good share of the increase is seen for the EEC and particularly for France. However, even the most optimistic of these increases together with more than a doubling of current import levels is inadequate to match the more modest or tentative consumption projection of the study. This, in turn, suggests the possibility of higher prices which might reduce consumption and would encourage additional supplies. It is interesting to note that pulp and paper, as well as particle board, are foreseen to require an increasing portion of the wood requirements.
The 1973 study Outlook for timber in the United States published by the United States Forest Service (UNASYLVA, Vol. 26, No. 105) sees, according to differing price assumptions, a rise in pulpwood consumption, by the year 2000, of 85 to 175 percent from the 1970 level. The prospects of supplying the increases are considered to be relatively favourable for the pulp and paper industry with the possibility of using small, low-quality material and increasing amounts of hardwood. No major shift in the net trade position is foreseen.
Although the Japanese Basic plan on forest resources and long-term projection of demand and supply of important forest products, submitted by the Ministry of Agriculture and adopted in 1973 by the Japanese Cabinet, foresees a surprising increase in domestic supply of industrial wood (from 46.3 million m³ in 1971 successively to 94.3 million m³ in the year 2021), imports are expected to continue to grow. Indeed, the trend of removals has actually been downward since 1967.
Thus, despite the considerable growth expected in wood removals, the prospects are for much increased or, at best, stabilized net imports of pulpwood pulp and paper for these major consuming regions.
There is frequently much speculation on the possibilities of greatly expanded production and export of forest products from the U.S.S.R., notably from Siberia. However, it is also recognized that domestic requirements for pulp and paper, both in the U.S.S.R. and in its trading partners of eastern Europe, are probably capable of absorbing a substantial growth in output. The FAO/ECE study, which devotes considerable attention to U.S.S.R. export possibilities, suggests nearly a doubling of forest product export volumes from 1970 to 2000, but foresees a smaller share of this being directed to Europe because of the Siberian and Far East source of the major increases in output.
Canada still has a very substantial reserve timber supply. It has recently been estimated that the indicated annual surplus was nearly as large as the present level of cut. Much of the surplus is, however, located in less accessible areas and much was estimated to be considerably more costly to harvest. Nevertheless, it is an obvious reserve for expansion. Another point of view, which projects possible consumption and trade patterns for pulp and paper to 1990 for major world regions and which foresees Canadian exports of paper and paperboard doubling, and those of pulp quadrupling, from 1970 to 1990, suggests that by 1990 the forest will be under pressure and that much further expansion of forest-based industry is difficult to predict.
The most impressive volume of underutilized wood is in the tropical broadleaved forests of the developing regions. These comprise half the world's wood volume. Not only are there large parts of these regions with more difficult accessibility such as much of the Amazon and Congo interiors, but, perhaps more important, there are usually large portions of the wood volume in forests already exploited, or being exploited, which are left uncut. This results from the common practice of concentrating the cut on veneer logs and sawlogs of select qualities and traditionally favoured species from forests which are very complex with a large number of species with diverse wood characteristics. Frequently, the volumes of the cut-over forests, or even uncut forests, are destroyed in agricultural expansion often into lands unsuitable for continuous agricultural production. A major problem in utilizing this material for pulping has been the wide range of wood species which occur in any limited forest area. However, there are already a few cases of successful pulp production from mixed tropical hardwoods. Furthermore, some recent research gives promise of solutions to the basic underlying problems of variable mixtures of diverse species. Utilization of the fibre source will likely be initially directed primarily to domestic demand. Often, utilizing the natural mixed tropical forest may be a transitionary stage in shifting to plantations as the primary fibre source.
Plantations of quick-growing species established on both grasslands and converted forest areas are becoming increasingly important as a source of fibre for pulping, particularly in the tropics or sub-tropics. A modest average growth rate of 10 m³ per hectare per year could supply the current pulp requirements of the developing world from little more than 5 million hectares compared to a closed forest area in these regions of well over 1 000 million hectares. Already several million cubic metres of pulpwood from plantations in the developing regions are being used to support pulp industries in several developing countries. Many developed countries, of course, supplement their wood supply with plantation wood and a few actually use it as their primary fibre source.
Some 7 million tons of pulp are produced from bamboo, bagasse and cellulose fibres other than wood. Over the next five years the capacity for producing these pulps is seen to increase by 5 percent primarily in China, Latin America and southern Asia. A major obstacle to the use of these materials is the high costs of collection, which is largely solved in the case of bagasse. It may be expected that some expansion of production on this source will continue but that it will be largely limited to domestic needs of developing countries without a good wood supply.
|
During the year or so since this article was prepared, the world's pulp and paper industry, in line with economic developments, has shown considerable recovery over the low activity levels of 1975. However, it has not yet returned to the peak levels of 1973 and 1974. The continued output of pulp in excess of requirements by most major producers has maintained, and even increased, the very high levels of producers' inventories. As a result of the modest recovery and general expectations for slower economic growth, plans for expansion of the pulp and paper industry have been further moderated. The recently published FAO survey of world pulp and paper capacities, 1976-81, shows a continued decline in both the past and expected growth rates of capacity for producing pulp, as well as paper and paperboard. This decline is evident for nearly all regions and product categories. Moreover, the potential imbalance between the capacity for producing paper and paperboard and for producing paper pulp referred to in this article appears to have been largely adjusted by recent improvements in the raw material input requirements - a reduction in total fibre input per ton of paper and an increase in the proportion of this fibre which is composed of waste paper. Unless there is an exceptional upward surge in paper and paperboard demand resulting from a short-run fluctuation in economic activity, it appears that, on a world basis, adequate capacity is foreseen until 1981 to satisfy pulp and paper requirements |
A large number of technological innovations could favour the expansion of pulp production. These could apply to logging methodologies, transport facilities and the manufacture of pulp. A relatively recent development, thermomechanical pulping, holds great promise for reducing wood consumption per average unit of paper pulp produced. This process, like conventional mechanical pulp, requires about 2.5 m³ per ton of pulp compared to from 4 to more than 5 m³ per ton of chemical pulps. Thermomechanical pulp, unlike ordinary mechanical pulp, can replace, at least part of, the chemical pulp used in cultural papers. Newsprint has been successfully made entirely of thermomechanical pulp. A further advantage of this process is that it can be economic in much smaller units than can chemical pulp and thus can be appropriate for more limited wood supply sources or smaller markets. It does, however, require considerable energy and is best used on preferred coniferous species.
From this review a number of points emerge. Over the next five years, it appears that pulp-making capacity for the market economies may be inadequate to match paper-making capacity. The latter may, however, not be seriously tried, unless there is a strong economic development generally, and in any event some built-up pulp stock is available.
In the longer run, physical availability of wood will not be a limiting factor in pulp supply, although relative costs may rise. There will be, to the end of the century, a continuing development of deficit supply positions for Japan, the EEC and some other parts of Europe. The United States will continue to be nearly self-sufficient. Growth of exports from some currently surplus areas must be modest. In the medium to long term, Canada and perhaps the U.S.S.R. will expand exports considerably, but the tropical and sub-tropical developing countries, which will generally become more nearly self-sufficient, must eventually become the major future new source of fibre for pulping.
