Present and future natural forest and plantation in areas in the tropics

J.P. Lanly and J. Clement

J.P. LANLY, of the FAO Forestry Department, is Coordinator, UNEP/FAO Tropical Forest Resources Assessment Project. J. CLEMENT IS research forester at the Centre technique forestier tropical.

By the year 2000 net removals from tropical forests should be 2.5 times those of 1975 and economic and population pressures, especially those for fuel wood, will cause local shortages.

The FAO Expert Consultation on World Pulp and Paper Demand, Supply and Trade, which met in Tunis from 20 to 22 September 1977, recommended that in order that there might be a more realistic appraisal of wood supply for pulping, FAO, in collaboration with a modified Industry Working Party, extend the "World pulp and paper consumption outlook" study ¹ to cover all forest products, including fuelwood and related total demand to the prospective supply of roundwood from the world's forests.

(¹The "World pulp and paper consumption outlook", presented at this meeting to the FAO Advisory Committee on Pulp and Paper, forecast until 1990 consumption of paper and paperboard, interregional trade in paper and paperboard (and corresponding fibre furnish), and consumption of white chemical pulp.)

It was agreed then that FAO would carry out the "resource outlook for fibre" of the developing world, within the proposed overall study of world demand for hardwood and softwood fibre products. More precisely, FAO has been in charge of assessing the resource base and wood supply as well as their evolution until the year 2000, for the three following developing regions:

-Latin America and the Caribbean, that is, America south of the United States;

-Africa south of the Sahara (without South Africa); - Asia and the Far East (without part of the USSR, China, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea and Mongolia). The developing countries included in this study are all tropical, plus several adjacent temperate countries (see box). Given the short time available

- this part of the study started in March 1978 and the overall demand/ supply outlook was to be completed by September 1978-and the industrial objective of the study, it was decided that fuelwood (and charcoal) would not be considered among the fibre products, despite their importance in most developing countries and the possible effect on industrial wood supply. In the assessment of the resource base, distinction was therefore made between those forests (natural or man-made) producing industrial wood and those providing only fuel-wood or wood for charcoal.

The origin of this article This article is derived from a document issued by FAO in May 1979 entitled "Present and future forest and plantation areas in the tropics" (miscellaneous paper FO: MISC/79/1) by the two authors. The results of this desk study carried out at FAO Headquarters were not discussed with the concerned national institutions because of the short time available, except in a few cases. FAO is at present engaged in collaboration with the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) in a more detailed reassessment of tropical forest :resources which will be reviewed by the countries concerned before final publication.

Central and South America

Natural hardwood forests. In 1975 there were in Central and South America approximately 823 million hectares of natural hardwood forests, of which 788 million were tropical-or 45 percent of all tropical forests - and 35 million temperate in Argentina, Chile and Uruguay. The largest part of the tropical hardwood forests are in the Amazon basin, mainly in Brazil. Of these, 80 percent are closed forests representing 56 percent of the world area of tropical closed hardwood forests. Although 487 million hectares are operable, most of them cannot be considered as intensively managed. It is quite difficult to estimate reliably the areas which have already been logged over, but the percentage of undisturbed forests is high and probably reaches over 95 percent of the operable closed forests.

Table 1. Estimated areas of natural forests at end of 1975 (Thousand hectares)

The estimate of the total area of closed hardwood forests by the year 2000 is 575 million hectares. The total decrease with respect to 1975 is thus estimated at 66 million hectares, almost exclusively for the tropical closed forests, of which more than 10 percent will have been depleted by the year 2000. Depletion will occur mostly along the Pacific coast of South America (Colombia, Ecuador) and in the Amazon basin. If, however, we consider the depletion trends at the national level, the forests of Central America will suffer the largest relative decrease: 17.6 million hectares in 1975 against 12.5 million in the year 2000 -a decrease of 29 percent for the whole of Costa Rica, El Salvador:, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua and Panama. More and more detailed: harvesting regulations may be enforced. in the operable forests, but no intensive management system is contemplated on large areas during that period. As far as temperate South America is concerned, total areas will not change significantly, dropping from 13.9 million hectares in 1975 to 13.1 million in 2000, representing a 6 percent decrease, a depletion mainly due to clearings in northern Argentina for the establishment of large ranches.

Table 2. Estimated areas of natural forests at end of 1980 (Thousand hectares)

Softwood forests. In :1975 South and Central America possessed 70 percent of the worlds tropical softwood forests- 32 million hectares out of 45.7 million - and 74 percent of operable tropical softwood forests - 26.2 million hectares out of 35.2 mil lion. These forests are mainly situated in Central America and the Caribbean Islands, although more than five mil lion hectares of softwood forests exist in southeastern Brazil, to which must be added some 100 000 hectares of Podocarpus stands in the Andes mountains, this species being often in mixture with hardwoods. Most of these forests are not intensively man aged. Several have already been logged over and their sustained production in many cases is not secured. Temperate South America possesses about 0.7 million hectares of natural softwood forests in the southern part of the Andes, of which about 25 percent are inoperable.

Wood productivity is not the most important consideration in forestry. Natural forests are less productive per hectare than plantations, but their loss can be more serious...

Table 3. Estimated areas of natural forests at end of 2000 (Thousand hectares)

In the year 2000 it is estimated that the remaining area of softwood forests will be 22.3 million hectares as against 32.7 million in 1975, a decrease of 10.4 million hectares or 32 percent, occurring almost entirely in the tropical zone. This depletion will take place in all countries concerned, but will be highest in Brazil - from 5.8 million in 1975 to 0.8 million in 2000.

This extremely important depletion of natural tropical softwood forests brings up the problem of the conservation of pine ecotypes, particularly in the Caribbean, also in other tropical countries where they are used for afforestation.

Industrial plantations. Always keeping the year 1975 as a base for our estimates, we find that 94 percent of industrial plantations are located in South America and only 6 percent in Central America. Of those in -the tropical area, 91 percent are in South America, mostly in Brazil. They fare equally distributed between hardwoods, mainly eucalypts, and softwoods, mainly pines. The proportion of plantations for non-industrial purposes is the lowest of the three tropical regions.

The share of tropical South America, and particularly Brazil, in industrial plantations within tropical America is expected to remain above 90 percent until the year 2000, by which time this region will, of the three, be the most heavily endowed with industrial plantations.

Africa-South of the Sahara

Natural forests. In 1975 tropical Africa was covered by 645 million hectares of tropical hardwood forests, about 37 percent of the world's tropical forests. This consisted of 443 million hectares of open forests and 202 million of closed forests. The latter figure corresponds to only 18 percent of the world's closed tropical forests.

Open forests exist in all subregions in the form of more or less wooded savannas of which 7; percent can be considered operable for production of timber and pitprops. Closed forests are chiefly lowland moist forests located mainly in central Africa-171 million hectares, of which 115 million operable over a total of 134 million operable for the whole of tropical Africa.

Forests not yet covered by logging, represent about 90 percent of the forests of central Africa: 104 million hectares, of which 65 million are in Zaire, 14.2 million in Cameroon, '3.8 million in the Congo and 13.4 million in Gabon. Although these closed forests contain in volume generally more than 300 m³ per ha (all species more than 20 cm DBH, bole plus branches), the bole volume of the trees more than 60 cm DBH is only 60 to 120 m³ per ha, of which 6 to 10 m³ are at present being extracted as commercial logs. The overwhelming majority of these forests are managed neither intensively nor extensively, apart from 400 000 hectares in West and East Africa.

In the year 2000 the estimated total area of closed tropical forests will be 187 million hectares, corresponding to a. decrease of 15 million hectares, or 7.5 percent. This decrease will be unequally distributed among subregions: in West Africa they will be reduced from 14 million hectares in 1975 to 7.5 million, a 47 percent decrease; in East Africa, 16.8 million hectares against 13.7 million, cm 18 percent decrease, central Africa, which has a low population pressure, will lose less than 3 percent, from 170.6 million hectares in 1975 to 165.7 million in the year 2000. The decrease of operable closed hardwood forests is a matter of much concern for West Africa, with 12.1 million hectares down to 5.5 million-a loss of about 55 percent, and in East Africa down from 6.3 million hectares to 3.1 million-a decrease of about 50 percent. Because of the high population pressure in West Africa, there is a likelihood of development of intensive forest management in the much reduced productive forest estate; about 1.5 million hectares could thus be under intensive management by the year 2000.

The countries concerned

From a total of 146 countries, 96 were studied in depth. The others have no significant forest resources potential between now and the year 2000. Those studied in depth have been grouped in the tables as follows:

TROPICAL AMERICA

Latin America- Central America
Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua

CARICOM (Caribbean Common Market)
Belize, Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago

Other Caribbean

Bahamas, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Guadeloupe, Guyana, Haiti, Martinique, Suriname

Tropical south Latin America

Bolivia, Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, Paraguay, Peru, Venezuela

Temperate South America
Argentina, Chile, Peru

TROPICAL AFRICA

Northern savanna region

Cape Verde, Chad, Gambia, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, Senegal, Upper Volta

West Africa

Benin, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Ivory Coast, Liberia, Nigeria, Sierra Leone, Togo

Central Africa

Angola, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Sao Tome and Principe, Zaire

East Africa and islands

Burundi, Djibouti, Ethiopia, Kenya, Madagascar, Malawi, Mauritius, Mozambique, Reunion, Rwanda, Somalia, Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia

Developing tropical southern Africa

Botswana, Namibia, Rhodesia

Developing temperate southern Africa Lesotho, Swaziland

TROPICAL ASIA AND FAR EAST

South Asia

Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal, Pakistan, Sri Lanka

Continental Southeast Asia
Burma, Thailand

Insular Southeast Asia

Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines

Centrally planned tropical Asia

Democratic Kampuchea, Lao, Viet-Nam

Developing Oceania

Fiji, New Caledonia, New Hebrides, Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands, Western Samoa

Developing East Asia

Republic of Korea, insular China (Taiwan)

Table 4. Estimated areas of plantations at end of 1975 (Thousand hectares)

Regions/subregions	Low yielding	Hardwood	Total	Industrial		Non-industrial
		High yielding		Softwood	Hardwood and softwood total	Hardwood and softwood
Tropical America
Central America	9	9	18	15	33	59
CARICOM	14	0	14	13	27	-
Other Caribbean	15	50	65	44	109	40
Tropical south Latin America	110	730	840	888	1 728	462
Total	148	789	937	960	1 897	561
Temperate South America	80	181	261	628	889	242
Total Central and South America	228	970	1 198	1 588	2 786	803
Tropical Africa
Northern savanna subregion	3	1	4	0	4	18
West Africa	128	28	156	0	156	45
Central Africa	75	35	110	20	130	98
East Africa and islands	193	15	208	321	529	403
Developing tropical South Africa	0	30	30	57	87	5
Total	399	109	508	398	906	569
Developing temperate southern Africa	0	19	19	72	91	12
Total Developing Africa south of Sahara	399	128	527	470	997	581
Tropical Asia and Far East
South Asia	458	209	667	62	729	1 542
Continental Southeast Asia	94	11	105	5	110	40
Insular Southeast Asia	778	45	823	123	946	465
Centraly planned tropical	Asia 19	0	19	41	60	90
Oceania developing	19	2	21	34	55	-
Total	1 368	267	1 635	265	1 900	2 137
East Asia developing	0	183	183	809	992	1 680
Total Developing Asia and Far East	1 368	450	1 818	1 074	2 892	3 817
TOTAL TROPICAL COUNTRIES	1 915	1 165	3 080	1 623	4 703	3 267

*Not for wood-processing industries but rather for firewood, charcoal, protection forestry.

The area of natural softwood forests was less than 1.9 million hectares in 1975, or 4 percent only of the world's tropical softwood forests. These forests are situated in East Africa, but 90 percent are inoperable because they are located on inaccessible land.

By the year 2000 they are expected to total 1.7 million hectares, a 9 percent loss. Depletion will be significant mainly in the operable part of these forests which will be reduced by 46 percent, from 370 000 to 200 000 hectares.

Industrial plantations. The total area of industrial plantations in tropical Africa in 1975 amounted to half of each of those existing in the two other tropical regions. Furthermore, 75 percent were low-yielding plantations. Fuelwood plantations, representing 39 percent of the total plantation area, are quite insufficiently developed in the northern savanna subregions and in West Africa.

By the year 2000 the total area of industrial plantations is expected to be only 2.1 million hectares. Western Africa will not have compensated by far the loss of its natural forest resources and the subregion will be in a tight supply situation. The proportion of high-yielding plantations is expected to increase between 1975 and 2000.

Table 5. Estimated areas of industrial plantations at end of 1980 (Thousand hectares)

Regions/subregions	Low yielding	Hardwood	Total	Softwood	Hardwood and softwood
		High yielding
Tropical America
Central America	15	12	27	24	51
CARICOM	15	0	15	16	31
Other Caribbean	23	65	88	65	153
Tropical south Latin America	188	94.5	1 133	1 502	2 635
Total	241	1 022	1 263	1 607	2 870
Temperate South America	88	261	349	909	1 258
Total Central and South America	329	1 283	1 612	2 516	4 128
Tropical Africa
Northern savanna subregion	4	1	5	0	5
West Africa	168	50	218	20	238
Central Africa	78	50	128	31	159
East Africa and islands	199	16	215	453	668
Developing tropical southern Africa	0	30	30	57	87
Total	449	147	596	561	1 157
Developing temperate southern Africa	0	19	19	72	91
Total Developing Africa south of Sahara	449	166	615	633	1 248
Tropical Asia and Far East
South Asia	615	286	901	103	1 004
Continental Southeast Asia	121	19	140	7	147
Insular Southeast Asia	779	85	864	151	1 015
Centrally planned tropical Asia	94	5	99	106	205
Oceania developing	31	11	42	80	122
Total	1 640	406	2 046	447	2 493
East Asia developing	0	273	273	953	1 226
Total Developing Asia and Far East	1 640	679	2 319	1 400	3 719
TOTAL TROPICAL COUNTRIES	2 330	1 575	3 905	2 615	6520

Asia and the Far East

Natural forests. In the base year 1975, the total area of tropical hardwood forests for Asia and the Far East was 327 million hectares, or 19 percent of the world total, but as much as 89 percent of these forests were closed forests (26 percent of the world total), more than the corresponding figure for tropical Africa. However, because of the high proportion of inoperable closed forests-35 percent - the percentage of operable forests compared to the tropical world is only 23 percent. I his slight decrease is more than made up for by the high commercial value of these forests where the net yield in the form of commercial logs varies from 20 to 80 or more m² per ha-at least four times over what is being extracted per ha of forest in Africa and America. Intensively managed forests are relatively important: 42 million hectares out of 188 million of operable forests mainly located in India and Burma. There are also four million hectares of subtropical and temperate forests in insular China and the Republic of Korea, of which one third is unproductive or has only a protective value.

The total area of tropical closed hardwood forests of this region for the year 2000 has been estimated at 243 million hectares corresponding to a decrease of 48 million, or 17 percent. This loss is relatively more important if we consider operable closed hardwood forests, since it will amount to about 24 percent. The subregions most affected are insular Southeast Asia and the Indian subcontinent. There will be progress in the intensive management of these forests but their total area will nevertheless contract because of expected encroachments.

Table 6. Estimated areas of industrial plantations in the year 2000 (Thousand hectares)

Regions/subregions	Low yielding	Hardwood	Total	Softwood	Hardwood and softwood
		High yielding
Tropical America
Central America	50	50	100	130	230
CARICOM	20	0	20	50	70
Other Caribbean	45	100	145	140	285
Tropical south Latin America	615	3 655	4 270	3 165	7 435
Total	730	3 805	4 535	3 485	8020
Temperate South America	115	630	745	1 940	2 685
Total Central and South America	845	4435	5280	5425	10705
Tropical Africa
Northern savanna subregion	10	-	10	0	10
West Africa	315	205	520	180	700
Central Africa	95 130	225	90	315
East Africa and islands	225	40	265	715	980
Developing tropical southern Africa	0 30	30	55	85
Total	645	405	1 050	1 040	2 090
Developing temperate southern Africa	0	20	20	70	90
Total Developing Africa south of Sahara	645	425	1 070	1 110	2 180
Tropical Asia and Far East
South Asia	1 330	690	2 020	640	2 660
Continental Southeast Asia	240	95	335	55	390
Insular Southeast Asia	795	525	1 320	515	1 835
Centrally planned tropical Asia	500	25	525	485	1 010
Oceania developing	75	50	125	260	385
Total	2 940	1 385	4 325	1 955	6 280
East Asia developing	235	390	625	1 360	1 985
Total Developing Asia and Far East	3 175	1 775	4 950	3 315	8 265
TOTAL TROPICAL COUNTRIES	4315	5595	9910	6480	16390

During the same base year the total area covered by natural softwood forests was 11.9 million hectares or 26 percent of the world's tropical softwood forests to which must be added 2.8 million in insular China and the Republic of Korea. Seventy three percent of this total was operable, with 3.5 million hectares or 40 percent being intensively managed.

A decrease of 1.2 million hectares is expected between 1975 and 2000, reducing the total area to 10.7 million hectares. This loss will mainly occur in the Indian subcontinent and to a lesser extent in the Indochinese peninsula.

Industrial plantations. The "tropical Asia and Far East" region has as many industrial plantations as tropical America, 1.9 million hectares, and the "East Asia developing" subregion as much as the "temperate South America" subregion. This similiarity of the two regions does not apply to the composition of industrial plantations, nor to the total amount of non-industrial plantations that is much more extensive in Asia and the Far East. Low-yielding hardwood plantations represent 72 percent of the total industrial plantations of this area, as against less than 8 percent in tropical America. South Asia and insular Southeast Asia-mainly Indonesia - are by far the most important tropical subregions for industrial and non-industrial plantations.

The considerable plantation effort of the Republic of Korea is also worth noting.

By the year 2000 the total area of industrial plantations will be multiplied by 3.3 in tropical Asia and the Far East as against a factor of 4.2 for tropical and 2.3 only for tropical Africa. It is assumed that the proportion of low-yielding hardwood plantations will have decreased to 47 percent, which is still high. As for some parts of tropical Africa, some subregions will not have counterbalanced their loss of natural forest by equivalent plantation efforts.

The estimates and forecasts of areas of natural forests and industrial plantations in most developing countries served as one baseline for the assessment of net removals of industrial wood up to the year 2000. The classifications used were designed to fit the particular objectives of this study. Therefore more attention was given to the forest and plantation types producing industrial wood than to those providing only services and wood for non-industrial purposes. This is why there was no attempt to forecast the trends in areas of woodlands and of non-industrial plantations, although these two broad categories fill very important functions in many of these countries.

Drawing conclusions

These estimates are partial and limited, but they enable us to draw some conclusions:

1. To begin with, the overall figure for depletion of closed forests in the tropics - 140 million hectares in 25 years-appears less alarming than those generally quoted, such as the suggestion that net losses are 50 000 hectares every day. But that is not all. We should like to point out that:

· The present rate of deforestation should slow down, not so much because of improved land use in the future, but mainly because little pressure will be exerted on a "core" of tropical hardwood forests (north of the Amazon river, Congo basin), after most of the more inhabited part will have been converted to non-forest uses.

· The operable forests are much more prone to depletion than the permanently unproductive/inoperable ones which are on terrain not suited for agriculture. Furthermore, the proportion of undisturbed forests in the remaining operable forests will decrease while temporarily unproductive logged-over forests will represent an increasing part of them.

· The depletion of softwood forests is more serious in relative terms than that of closed hardwood forests, although less impressive in absolute terms.

· The depletion of open woodlands must be added to that of closed forests to get a global picture of the evolution of the tropical forest cover of the world. Although no precise assessment was done, a rapid review shows that this depletion should be larger than 70 million hectares between 1975 and 2000-more than 33 million hectares in tropical America, more than 31 million in tropical Africa and more than 6 million in tropical Asia and the Far East. Furthermore, a slow degradation process will continue in many woodlands because of overexploitation, mainly for fuelwood and fires.

2. The total afforestation effort contemplated until 2000 is small compared to the total deforestation. But we must understand that this new afforestation is in addition to the replanting of logged-over plantations, and the reforestation of some natural forests and plantations for non-industrial purposes, such as fuelwood, charcoal and fruit trees.

3. Prospects for supply of industrial wood from the tropical countries were derived partly from this study of the resource base. Roughly speaking, the net removals by the year 2000 should be about two and a half times those of 1975. Although this is a significant increase, the combined effects of population and economic growth in tropical countries and the resultant expansion of local demand for forest products will result in a progressive reduction of their global export potential of tropical wood products and in aggravated local shortages. In addition, there is the critical problem of shortages of fuelwood in less forested areas.

... because agriculture, water regimes, the quality of life of man and animal depend heavily on maintaining natural forests, especially in the tropics.

More than wood

When looking at forest area statistics or discussing gains and losses in forest areas, two realities have to be kept in mind. One is that any given area of plantation forest is much more productive of industrial wood than an equal area of natural forest. The other is that the loss of natural forest means much more than an economic loss of wood. It means the transformation, damage, or loss of whole environmental systems, the disappearance of plant and wildlife species, the destruction of watersheds, the onset of erosion, the possible change of whole water regimes in valleys and lowlands. Management of forests is not simply about wood production, but about the state of health and productivity of the environment as a whole, including adjacent and even distant. agricultural and urban areas.

This study showed that information on the present situation of tropical forest resources is generally inadequate at national as well as regional levels. There is a definite need to develop monitoring procedures for forest resources in most tropical countries. Simultaneously, information should be collected and compiled on a continuous basis at the regional and global levels. This is precisely what the Forestry Department of FAO is doing at present with the assistance of the United Nations Environment Programme and its Global Environmental Monitoring System.