Carefully and systematically
B.A. Linderholm
B.A. Linderholm is chief consultant of the engineering firm Linderholm and Co., Ltd, operating out of St Helier, Jersey, Channel Islands, UK.
· Although every developing country must be treated separately in making development assessments, there are useful similarities to be aware of and there is general advice applicable to consulting work in these countries.
In the conducting of interviews and the collection of data, people, as a rule, are very helpful. It is advisable for a consultant to explain to people the aim of the study and the part their own contribution will play in the overall work.
Development investigations for the pulp and paper industry consist primarily of assessing domestic market demands, raw material availability and suitability, selection of appropriate production processes and plant sizes to produce the selected products, and, most importantly, consideration of these factors in relation to infrastructure and environment and to the social, economic and technical sophistication of a country. All of this, moreover, has to be seen in relation to the country's development priorities.
In the seventeenth century, the creation of a paper mill required consideration of such non-paper-making aspects as distance to markets, accessibility of locations where rags and hides for paper manufacture could be obtained, ease of access to highways, abundance of pure water and the location of a suitable site for accommodating both the mill owner and the workers, who at that time commonly lived in the mill. Such infrastructural and social factors were of great significance in establishing a paper industry 300 years ago. Development investigations today are, or should be, much more extensive, although this does not always seem to be the case.
An inadequate conception of the requirements for a pulp and paper industry in a development study can lead to plant failures attributable to an inability to recognize important factors that would not have been neglected had there been more knowledge available initially. Lack of trained managers and operators is one example.
While there is generally no difficulty in obtaining information about an interviewee's specialized area, it should be recognized that a wider knowledge of the requirements for feasibility studies is not extensive in these countries even at the highest levels, particularly in countries where there is little or no industry. This is important, since the consultant should realize that it is practically impossible to gain sufficient knowledge for a feasibility study just by reading the sparse literature available. Only if such reading is combined with practical experience is it possible to have an understanding of project feasibility study requirements.
Statistical data may not be as extensive as in industrialized countries, nor may the priority or importance of such information be as high. Therefore, the accuracy and timeliness of the information, as well as non-recorded events having a bearing on its validity, should be evaluated.
A case in point is the use of nonwood fibres in pulp and paper plants. In theory the availability of such fibres may be immense, but in practice the supply of such materials for paper-making can be very restricted. Straw and bagasse, for instance, have many uses, leaving little left over for other purposes. Straw is also bulky and thus has a high transport cost, limiting the economic collection distance from a proposed mill. Any time raw-material sources are scattered, costs will increase. The fact that the harvesting period for a non-wood-providing fibre crop over the course of a year is usually short also makes it necessary to store the raw material in large quantities, and this is expensive. Non-wood fibre utilization for paper-making is therefore not as simple a development opportunity as it may appear at first glance, and a considerable quantity of data is needed before realistic assessments can be made.
No easy road lies ahead of the consultant providing advice on the establishment of new pulp and paper plants in developing countries.
Information is often scarce or difficult to obtain, politicians can be indifferent to technical advice, and differences between the social and political institutions of different countries mean that what works in one country may not succeed in another.
In such situations consultants are best advised to proceed carefully and systematically, trying to develop a spirit of cooperation among those they must work with.
Widening the scope of use for a given crop may also affect the price. If a sugar mill, for example, purchases most of a farmer's cane, that farmer would probably ask for a price increase on learning that the mill was paid for the bagasse it was selling for pulp-making - as it certainly would be.
While non-wood fibres are thus not the panacea they may some times appear to be, straw, bagasse, bamboo and similar fibres are of much interest because the process of turning them into pulp for paper-making lends itself to small economic production units, in contrast to chemical wood-pulping, which requires larger units to be economic.
However, relatively small wood-based pulp and paper mills can be established in developing countries if they are integrated with mechanical wood-product industries; for example, with sawmills and plywood mills. Consultants working in either of these areas separately should keep mill integration in mind as a possibility even if it is not imminent. Mill integration, besides providing more efficient forest utilization, offers the following advantages.
· The higher return on investment in mechanical wood-product industries improves the overall return of an integrated industry, possibly to an acceptable level in spite of the low return on investments in small-size mills handling exclusively pulp and paper.· The shorter construction period for a mechanical wood-product industry means that it generates profit before the integrated industry is completed, thereby providing a certain amount of self-financing that improves the rate of return for the entire enterprise.
· Residues provide a low-cost fibrous raw material for the pulp mill.
· The intake of saw, plywood and pulpwood logs to an integrated mill offers improved separation and utilization of these logs, resulting in reduced overall production costs.
Field-work
Cooperation is vital for success in any endeavour, and the consultant should make every effort to establish and preserve a spirit of cooperation in the field. When people in any one country become involved in a feasibility-study exercise on a cooperative basis, they will identify themselves with it and take more of an interest in the outcome.
An excellent way to start a "transfer of technology" is to have a reasonably senior person from the developing country assigned to a feasibility study on a continuous basis, commencing with the field-data collection and on through the complete preparation of the feasibility report. It is beneficial when this person becomes actively involved in every phase of the study rather than being a mere observer. This will mean that the preparation time for the report, including calculations, will be extended somewhat, but the compensating advantages for the country make this approach worthwhile. Development then becomes identified primarily as a local product, with assistance provided by an international agency and a consultant. A successful project is one in which people almost forget the consultant and the project becomes theirs; a failed project is one in which everyone remembers only the consultant.
Terms of reference should be prepared for any assignment to ensure that the scope of the work is understood by both the consultant and the assignor. When terms of reference are prepared by techno-economic specialists, they should reflect a realistic image of the requirements as seen at that time. The consultant, while adhering to these requirements, should not be limited by them. In the field, a detailed assessment of development possibilities will be carried out in conjunction with the data collection. This means that new information may come to light, making it necessary to investigate and consider factors beyond those initially anticipated in the terms of reference.
Terms of reference should be discussed in the field with the primary liaison person(s) at the time the work starts. Before leaving the field, the consultant should review the findings and the state of the work performed so far. It is understandable that a non-technical person may not comprehend the mechanics and details of techno-economic studies, but it can also happen that a top manager from an existing large mill, although without experience or comprehension of industrial development work, may offer a personal imaginative interpretation.
Questionnaires sent out to the field in advance of a consultant's arrival are ineffective and may even discourage cooperation.
Only the most rudimentary questionnaire, with a very limited number of well-defined and simple questions, can serve a useful purpose, and then only if the proposed industry investigation itself is very simple. People with experience in forest-industry techno-economic studies can collect information for such studies, but it is unlikely that such people will be found in developing countries. Even if specialists do exist, they are unlikely to have time for the task.
A typical questionnaire for pulp and paper industry studies contains about 24 main subjects, such as Market, Marketing, Forest, Physical Characteristics of Wood, Other Fibrous Raw Materials, Site Selection, and Transport by Sea and Land, each with sub-categories having several key-word questions. The number of sub-categories in such a questionnaire can easily go up to about 130. The volume of work to provide this amount of information is extensive; moreover, when a questionnaire is sent out in advance, there is a tendency to move it down in an organization to junior, inexperienced personnel with the time to attend to the work involved. The usefulness of such a contribution is minimal.
The problem is that inexperienced personnel may not fully understand a question, or what the reply is going to be used for, or how it is going to be used. Therefore, they are incapable of judging if an answer received is correct, reasonable or complete and are unable to ask the next logical question needed to obtain the required information.
Working in countries with centrally planned economies differs in many ways from operating in the Western world, or in other developing countries. To work successfully in these countries, it is important to understand and recognize both the differences from and the similarities with work elsewhere.
The main difference is that in centrally planned economies there is only one employer, the state. Under these circumstances, people will be very cautious and decision-making will be careful and rather slow. One should not expect new ideas to be adopted overnight. Those at odds with prevailing conditions risk losing their positions in the society.
Technical and agricultural personnel in these countries are likely to be exceptionally knowledgeable within their narrow fields of specialization, but it is very rare for them to have overall knowledge, understanding or experience of the kinds of subjects required for an investigation for a feasibility study. It is not unusual to experience difficulty in obtaining detailed information on a particular subject outside the area of responsibility of a contact person who does not conceive that it is important. The possibility of obtaining additional information outside the official liaison contacts is extremely limited and in some cases impossible. If it happens that there is an unexplained difficulty in some phase of a data-collection exercise, efforts to get at the information should be pursued in a diplomatic manner.
There is a tendency to favour averages rather than specific information in these countries, and it is therefore important to ask for exact data, usually available although sometimes difficult to obtain - from within a department or ministry.
Development assessments in centrally planned economies can run exceedingly smoothly when a reasonably influential person within a ministry takes a personal interest in the study work. In these circumstances it is not unusual that the field-work extends to 14-16 hours each day for weeks. Work inspired by such enthusiasm is very rewarding to the consultant. And, despite what was stated earlier, there are times in such countries when action can be taken very rapidly. I recall one case where foreign (Western) funds - of which there was and still is a shortage were raised for an overlooked pilot-plant test in less than a week; and where, a week and a half later, test logs had been cut, debarked and air-freighted to the plant. Nothing slow about that!
There is little point in having a preconceived negative attitude; instead, consultants should always be prepared to understand reasons for differences and aim to find a way to obtain information if problems arise.
The extent of the training needed for personnel to operate a pulp and paper industry is often underestimated by inexperienced people, who tend to dislike using expatriates paid in foreign currency, in the belief that such a practice is unnecessary. The large investment involved demands that a mill reach its design capacity in the shortest possible time. Lack of adequate performance by unskilled personnel will result in major financial losses to the industry and to the country. Moreover, there is no kind of formal education that qualifies managers to operate a mill successfully. Their training must involve diverse kinds of practical experience, and the time-scale involved is necessarily rather long.
There is no kind of formal education that qualifies managers to operate a mill successfully. Their training must involve diverse kinds of practical experience.
TRANSFERRING LOGS TO AN INDIAN MILL: a transfer of knowledge is also needed
It may take up to five years, using expatriate management and supervision, to bring a pulp and paper mill up to design capacity. Because of the complexity of the operation, some of the expatriate mill management may need to remain even longer in order to continue training the local management. This could require an additional three to five years.
This brings to mind an argument often put forward by members of newly emergent governments: since their citizens have shown themselves fully capable of flying jumbo jets commercially, why can they not operate a simple pulp and paper mill without outside help? The answer is that not only is this theoretically possible but it eventually will be most probable - if only to satisfy national aspirations. In the short term, however, it is not economically viable. A talented pilot may achieve a high level of performance and responsibility in a few years, given the worldwide facilities for advanced training, the integrated safety and monitoring standards and the continuous backup provisions that obtain internationally in public safety. The would-be manager of a mill, by contrast, will not find such facilities, opportunities or resources readily available.
The training of personnel for a complete mill includes operators, supervisors and management. It comprises, at a minimum, the entire logging operation, the transport fleet and the performance of the industry itself. Basic skill training will also be required for mechanics, welders, electricians, instrument mechanics and others. Such training has a wider application in that it provides the skills required for advancement in other types of industrial activities.
The selection of personnel for training is a serious matter. While most operatives should have on-the job training, some special operatives may need to be trained in an advanced foreign or domestic mill. Supervisory training should ideally be provided to people with some practical experience of the work - or at least of similar work - that they are to supervise. International seminars for supervisory personnel have the potential disadvantage that foreign travel itself may attract people without experience or aptitude for the work they later will direct. A person who literally does not know how to hold an axe is unlikely to be an effective instructor in or supervisor of a logging operation.
Questionnaires sent out to the field in advance of a consultant's arrival are ineffective and may even discourage cooperation.
BETWEEN THE IDEAL AND THE POSSIBLE: the consultant helps to bridge the gap
The link between politics and technology is of paramount importance. Technologists should provide, through their work, realistic and impartial advice to assist politicians in their decision-making. Politicians should understand that decision-making that excludes technical considerations benefits no one in the long run. It should also be recognized that the optimal technical solution may not necessarily be the most advantageous political one. Only when the maximum benefits of both coincide will the best possible development result. In any event, politicians should be aware of the best technical solution so that they will understand the implications of any political decision they may make.
At times some politicians seem to believe that they can do anything, that money will solve all their problems, and that they can ignore technology. Such circumstances are very difficult for a consultant, who, in their opinion, is nothing but an unnecessary nuisance. What they really want is financial backing. The complexity of establishing pulp and paper industries is not understood. Here a well-executed feasibility study is the proper vehicle to change their minds. But politicians also have a problem in evaluating a well-presented high-quality feasibility study if there are no technical experts in their country. They will not know if or when they should call for outside advice. Here an active follow-up of a study by a techno-economic specialist is advisable.
Development advice to Third World countries must embrace every element related to the successful establishment and operation of a forest industry. This will include forestry and fibre-harvesting, the supply of other raw materials, transport operations and personnel selection and training. The consultant should be well briefed on the purpose and terms of reference of a development study and should, during the field-work, consider all factors that may affect development. Every opportunity should be utilized to train some local talent through participation in feasibility studies and in the implementation of forest industries projects. The consultant should provide impartial advice to assist and support politicians in their decision-making. Politicians should be alert to this form of transfer of technology and persist in having techno-economic features of a feasibility study explained to them by specialists early in the decision-making process. The cooperation between technology and politics, as history has already shown, will enhance development and benefit people in developing countries.
