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Appendix C
Crop-wise estimates of rainfed arable landand production potential in Kenya -
assumption set B

The calculation procedures outlined in Chapter 3 have been performed for all crop types, pastures and fuelwood species in all agro-ecological cells of Kenya, altogether more than 90000 land units. As a result, we determine the extent and quality of arable land and production potential of each crop type in all locations. The information is then aggregated to district level, province level and national total. The results are also aggregated over crop types to indicate production potential of crop species, i.e. arable land and production potential for maize rather than nine individual maize types considered in the study.

Three sets of results are presented in this report, in Appendix B to D. The second set, Assumption Set B included here, refers to crop productivity and production potential on all land that is not indicated as forest zone, game park, or belonging to an irrigation scheme. Whenever possible and appropriate, sequential mono-crop combinations of two or three consecutive crop types from a crop species have been constructed to ensure highest possible estimates in sub-humid and humid zones

Six suitability classes have been defined relating average single-crop suitability in a cell to maximum attainable yield. The classes C1 to C5 relate to average attainable yields of >80 %, 60–80%, 40–60%, 20–40%, and 5–20% compared to maximum agro-climatic yields. Note that extents in suitability class C5 are usually not considered among the viable crop options, but have been included here to indicate the scope of production in very marginal areas. A sixth suitability class accounts for areas that are entirely unsuitable or allow only for less than 5 percent of maximum yield. Data for this non suitable class are not explicitly included in the result tables.

Production potential is calculated from land extents in suitability classes C1 to C4 only. Average, minimum and maximum production potential and yields are determined according to the LGP-Pattern and associated probabilities. The columns are labeled AVG, MIN and MAX, respectively. Multiple land use in time, sequential multi-cropping, is indicated by means of a multi-cropping index (MCI).

Each table shows an estimate of arable land by productivity class. The alogrithm used to determine rainfed arable extents in an agro-ecological cell comprises of a two stage procedure. In a first step, the crop or (mono) crop combination that performs best under worst climatic (according to LGP-Pattern) conditions is determined. Then all crops combinations which meet the production stability constraint, i.e. fall within a tolerable neighborhood of the best performing crop, are considered in the final selection. Finally, among all qualifying crops, the crop combination that maximizes the weighted sum of extents in land suitability classes C1 to C4 is selected as describing the cell's arable land potential. Suitable extents of the primary crop type in the chosen crop combination, i.e. the first crop to be grown in the sequential cropping pattern, are recorded in the relevant totals of arable land resources.

NATIONAL TOTAL: KENYA (Assumption Set B)Page: C001

Arable Land by Productivity Classes (100 ha):

NRZONEC1
> 80
C2
60–80
C3
40–60
C4
20–40
Total
C1–C4
C5
5–20
Total
C1–C5
Total ExtentC1–C4
% of Zone
1ARID028722043108559819084246824233211.3
2SEMIARID9932327698880101831814146324646753627.1
3SUBHUMID3434466056585319190724767238393753850.8
4HUMID3532775666067550254444736301804642754.8
 TOTAL7959150302145623988684334273311116557482311.9

Potential Crop Production:

  Land by Productivity Class (100 ha)Class C1–C4Class C1–C4
NRCROPC1
> 80
C2
60–80
C3
40–60
C4
20–40
Total
C1–C4
C5
5–20
Production (1000 mt)Yields (kg/ha) 
MINAVGMAXMINAVGMAXMCI
1BARLEYY390259846009143483024316004239052397675790173225381.53
2MAIZEE3755521310076206033964839540543110247146141370258436861.69
3OATS110934758568103642351719351138132484830587138120541.38
4MILLET152840109776206033591631275216037034530602103112611.53
5RICE957401554857410964187411130189926021031173223731.94
6SORGH333961338615206653875245419303563129111783162923511.69
7WHEAT226651754699126202475917359171342776786692172727411.41
8COWPEAA6746472931852712779132775991084152746984911951.77
9GRAM1731609365967811222235156501954134141078110971.80
10GRNDNTT67269629378777130811280095717272446732132018701.68
11BEANS426258197000121932927416711169931494504580107615391.72
12PIGPEA204811683781915916155879092718472521574114315611.49
13SOYBEANANN7329062569865712864136215641103159343985712381.66
14CASSAVAVAA8842285308773851364117312127801427014862936910461108951.00
15SW.POT8961280225363651079513670521391841224548298508113441.59
16WH.POT18324202711599172306618096109762394936506475810383158271.81
17BANANA01496355109589250033957426350476715723485651.00
18OIL PALM02471419514609315967601114313111.00
19SUGCANEE75593202464719163118672147023973249912343026162272731.00
20COFFEE19033571309472171578411290       
21COTTON531851102391152514828       
22PINEAPP117463206920664716144       
23PYRETH1689595877199186245523337       
24SISAL5352051501093631695819501       
25TEA1646627973768571238717161       
26FUELW1397426315227863792390997506693628340185420503987441646211.00
27FUELW280402160819881246397416761648694807485677619936810093104651.00
28GRASS12138187151317834039780701647813811342737444224882547456901.00

PROVINCE TOTAL: (1) Central Province (Assumption Set B)Page: P001

Arable Land by Productivity Classes (100 ha):

NRZONEC1
> 80
C2
60–80
C3
40–60
C4
20–40
Total
C1–C4
C5
5–20
Total
C1–C5
Total ExtentC1–C4
% of Zone
1ARID0000000110.
2SEMIARID341583302434310744126734.3
3SUBHUMID583152670668635014953997544864.3
4HUMID147149470343127753003075650042.7
 TOTAL7643035149314196711110578161322650.7

Potential Crop Production:

  Land by Productivity Class (100 ha)Class C1–C4Class C1–C4
NRCROPC1
> 80
C2
60–80
C3
40–60
C4
20–40
Total
C1–C4
C5
5–20
Production (1000 mt)Yields (kg/ha) 
MINAVGMAXMINAVGMAXMCI
1BARLEYY662275311371623617583955212691674893205527101.55
2MAIZEE2861332169610134326754574125515321326290035411.39
3OATS98119929331045527515993388521150642161621801.48
4MILLET021288867117637083121134709102811362.16
5RICE005313612384551117124112821.19
6SORGH41314361215105041146443278251009795200524531.48
7WHEAT1582629105212115050166834710261415686203228021.42
8COWPEAA001223364588971533393227178521.70
9GRAM00716717411934892434575281.74
10GRNDNTT00129435564783306171529107512611.58
11BEANS42124081545136857421183296639818515111314241.62
12PIGPEA13098110193822777886318423327980710221.19
13SOYBEANANN001294335627931842513127519001.55
14CASSAVAVAA01352666451045287991498810148743945997021.00
15SW.POT013010038861823611754124922832667079611.37
16WH.POT22718401512153351121541226657107716443311169150941.90
17BANANA000150150297576774995503151551.00
19SUGCANEE001516217720762423914401367722058248521.00
20COFFEE289180731120101612       
21COTTON0002332331       
23PYRETH601391105720994607722       
24SISAL012686230412922985       
25TEA123154514017193789644       
26FUELW11235518159484080752834792489149325934605761081.00
27FUELW289642231882944794433696769948100631217912522126671.00
28GRASS2530296810721338790811275570579258677043732474201.00

PROVINCE TOTAL: (2) Coast Province (Assumption Set B)Page: P002

Arable Land by Productivity Classes (100 ha):

NRZONEC1
> 80
C2
60–80
C3
40–60
C4
20–40
Total
C1–C4
C5
5–20
Total
C1–C5
Total ExtentC1–C4
% of Zone
1ARID01041492457205352807333660673.1
2SEMIARID109882221718995107424993571379137.0
3SUBHUMID41333867136626077123319438559.5
4HUMID0105203610454677.2
 TOTAL150132945813742980310252200548428911.6

Potential Crop Production:

  Land by Productivity Class (100 ha)Class C1–C4Class C1–C4
NRCROPC1
> 80
C2
60–80
C3
40–60
C4
20–40
Total
C1–C4
C5
5–20
Production (1000 mt)Yields (kg/ha) 
MINAVGMAXMINAVGMAXMCI
1BARLEYY5191713817995142127787118714951.53
2MAIZEE24398109737905310101073177341239596138223341.58
3OATS014112853176479678130816501.50
4MILLET40819904096482411319778461012511620539110514311.48
5RICE6108751367155669678415424354199015621.27
6SORGH995281896557080938484354800123443798915251.59
7WHEAT023156310213571316737129116111.56
8COWPEAA721078228633863361810825243428165311231.40
9GRAM72518230834746575656019445470230571311021.69
10GRNDNTT7263981340146533218228486817490104517561.36
11BEANS4327511722825112172452174610631.63
12PIGPEA01273499584118414406923269211771.01
13SOYBEANANN2034290333874652299512931955627868511951.37
14CASSAVAVAA152265921199203223591341184820176600909099241.00
15SW.POT062338858125849723868411071894543387981.07
16WH.POT018215796151498110151478459104661.96
19SUGCANEE0003131652227297713523612317611.00
20COFFEE035586648       
21COTTON002115817955       
23PYRETH077102380       
24SISAL0427757241235961957       
25TEA0019618036       
26FUELW1323472877703610292132561923282832611869274831681.00
27FUELW222757326746218668145853371492956453889568765121.00
28GRASS0243141865608221331072109288731742565351238611.00

PROVINCE TOTAL: (3) Eastern Province (Assumption Set B)Page: P003

Arable Land by Productivity Classes (100 ha):

NRZONEC1
> 80
C2
60–80
C3
40–60
C4
20–40
Total
C1–C4
C5
5–20
Total
C1–C5
Total ExtentC1–C4
% of Zone
1ARID0073464537734978871191690.5
2SEMIARID2376253454501993367720170562616335.7
3SUBHUMID68381275089831433363478526359.7
4HUMID725272154301180661246291940.4
 TOTAL16451709443264101419615471296671535159.2

Potential Crop Production:

  Land by Productivity Class (100 ha)Class C1–C4Class C1–C4
NRCROPC1
> 80
C2
60–80
C3
40–60
C4
20–40
Total
C1–C4
C5
5–20
Production (1000 mt)Yields (kg/ha) 
MINAVGMAXMINAVGMAXMCI
1BARLEYY57237010491130312110084155786761331185121661.46
2MAIZEE102010269272128510118016902135116591768264932521.72
3OATS143390500742177522701892693151065151517741.44
4MILLET7121042413910073159661111810161466163963791810271.40
5RICE0741501016124038521301822501049146620161.62
6SORGH1186122916641859593819714730112013561230188722831.78
7WHEAT248306272706153221151872913611218190223571.33
8COWPEAA34917856420033096224618828735160692711341.77
9GRAM44686771106325641884416625130064998111681.99
10GRNDNTT349184678195131632559311479581985151518361.79
11BEANS687739554160835891646255370461711103112851.44
12PIGPEA7032744777812234432170299365761133916331.22
13SOYBEANANN429262577191831872307200323398628101312501.75
14CASSAVAVAA3524717301135268829483195334934271188412459127501.00
15SW.POT4953095584631825777131520542427720511256132971.59
16WH.POT2083795016531742245310051641212357699425121911.45
17BANANA05528155237591582052306644866396881.00
18OIL PALM024541732510193236758127814521.00
19SUGCANEE72160107666100513172588313133432575331157332691.00
20COFFEE165388174523124987       
21COTTON4881359556104447       
22PINEAPP243127212918       
23PYRETH235129600766173       
24SISAL2745691422201242772218       
25TEA236390152544132267       
26FUELW153270367151552024991113555959724177722385289831101.00
27FUELW25492078356293171550619245988110917113316372704073081.00
28GRASS1346121214531020614217390675258593262053698417343641.00

PROVINCE TOTAL: (4) Nairobi Area (Assumption Set B)Page: P004

Arable Land by Productivity Classes (100 ha):

NRZONEC1
> 80
C2
60–80
C3
40–60
C4
20–40
Total
C1–C4
C5
5–20
Total
C1–C5
Total ExtentC1–C4
% of Zone
2SEMIARID003313426604168.2
3SUBHUMID421131167289524527.6
 TOTAL421136121025415566115.4

Potential Crop Production:

  Land by Productivity Class (100 ha)Class C1–C4Class C1–C4
NRCROPC1
> 80
C2
60–80
C3
40–60
C4
20–40
Total
C1–C4
C5
5–20
Production (1000 mt)Yields (kg/ha) 
MINAVGMAXMINAVGMAXMCI
1BARLEYY42113813104361322251288212124091.51
2MAIZEE005511661051620780242229701.00
3OATS0423020924781315849145516641.00
4MILLET000131310112904114511.00
6SORGH005512671041214543171821091.00
7WHEAT0421138914571417721156418581.00
8COWPEAA0000010000000.
9GRAM00000140000000.
11BEANS042032743547850494911061.56
12PIGPEA00000530000000.
13SOYBEANANN0000010000000.
14CASSAVAVAA00000570000000.
15SW.POT00000420000000.
16WH.POT00421860362846524649764886481.70
23PYRETH000424212       
24SISAL0000061       
26FUELW10434354140467676775398544354591.00
27FUELW2072344119671311321321103511056110631.00
28GRASS04340271103226565655903591159141.00

PROVINCE TOTAL: (5) North-Eastern Province (Assumption Set B)Page: P005

Arable Land by Productivity Classes (100 ha):

NRZONEC1
> 80
C2
60–80
C3
40–60
C4
20–40
Total
C1–C4
C5
5–20
Total
C1–C5
Total ExtentC1–C4
% of Zone
1ARID0511887721011221732281274110.8
2SEMIARID001492336598327.7
 TOTAL0512027811034225332871274940.8

Potential Crop Production:

  Land by Productivity Class (100 ha)Class C1–C4Class C1–C4
NRCROPC1
> 80
C2
60–80
C3
40–60
C4
20–40
Total
C1–C4
C5
5–20
Production (1000 mt)Yields (kg/ha) 
MINAVGMAXMINAVGMAXMCI
2MAIZEE00011211215441313131156119512071.00
4MILLET0512021544071550384243937102510621.00
5RICE000979724636666586586581.00
6SORGH00519369879266364646436466471.00
8COWPEAA0001071079204444134134131.00
9GRAM005111216312929995545665701.00
10GRNDNTT0001581581441111116686686681.00
13SOYBEANANN0001071079205554544544541.00
26FUELW1006510391104467496139193874125617461.00
27FUELW2000202202573357851262832422262381.00
28GRASS0003063063981955831101786270236111.00

PROVINCE TOTAL: (6) Nyanza Province (Assumption Set B)Page: P006

Arable Land by Productivity Classes (100 ha):

NRZONEC1
> 80
C2
60–80
C3
40–60
C4
20–40
Total
C1–C4
C5
5–20
Total
C1–C5
Total ExtentC1–C4
% of Zone
1ARID0000077140.
2SEMIARID05495179329373702120727.3
3SUBHUMID98211448107018275372364351652.0
4HUMID75919601538132755845736157766972.8
 TOTAL8572225208125767740149092301240662.4

Potential Crop Production:

  Land by Productivity Class (100 ha)Class C1–C4Class C1–C4
NRCROPC1
> 80
C2
60–80
C3
40–60
C4
20–40
Total
C1–C4
C5
5–20
Production (1000 mt)Yields (kg/ha) 
MINAVGMAXMINAVGMAXMCI
1BARLEYY100402291227830723716128472694418153522601.98
2MAIZEE3559441843382869701234825186429551184267442392.23
3OATS556528335924512138153216416165523392.09
4MILLET9523127317532353273199278370423118015712.41
5RICE35148392227926551989277476719971166825171.99
6SORGH30379014202903541732513149991593579184429422.35
7MEAT81354178106816824226101281544598166932341.91
8COWPEAA7511833219392464198611221630345687512292.37
9GRAM0109110487706311933618846086312472.16
10GRNDNTT66123279148919572082127274394649140220152.30
11BEANS1537261129223642442799187459738440108117402.10
12PIGPEA1946021011162634331811181435619527126718031.73
13SOYBEANANN741121551541188127556716323735586412602.20
14CASSAVAVAA131463647121724582691224026142736911310633111301.00
15SW.POT4017094110512202271110562128294147979664133581.89
16WH.POT74258255312900364934211171810379512412201061.97
17BANANA030421145819089291383151418977248793699421.00
18OIL PALM0044548105356687103411671.00
19SUGCANEE12049111934305121087208810985372362326576279811.00
20COFFEE575444384268440871332       
21COTTON027214174319841533       
22PINEAPP28265712346135117       
23PYRETH8752587066532493169       
24SISAL462701172202335112884       
25TEA4591185775174741661239       
26FUELW1112624472968195284938684819496850695674584959681.00
27FUELW217932466203319378230985991710254105121205012460127731.00
28GRASS1960254524002274917919275145579359685605631165021.00

PROVINCE TOTAL: (7) Rift Valley Province (Assumption Set B)Page: P007

Arable Land by Productivity Classes (100 ha):

NRZONEC1
> 80
C2
60–80
C3
40–60
C4
20–40
Total
C1–C4
C5
5–20
Total
C1–C5
Total ExtentC1–C4
% of Zone
1ARID013245014141997423062271106481.8
2SEMIARID61375110916013055142644812459412.4
3SUBHUMID198717632763111976322561101931818042.0
4HUMID157023702592343299643341133052112547.2
 TOTAL417050156896656622647115593420617454713.0

Potential Crop Production:

  Land by Productivity Class (100 ha)Class C1–C4Class C1–C4
NRCROPC1
> 80
C2
60–80
C3
40–60
C4
20–40
Total
C1–C4
C5
5–20
Production (1000 mt)Yields (kg/ha) 
MINAVGMAXMINAVGMAXMCI
1BARLEYY2520242732887486157226829117726424081748168025961.40
2MAIZEE20691334356565491351861152116390654551565289040351.32
3OATS86317734422716114220775876318442896537129620371.26
4MILLET312675771284346015124310536706674116415341.52
5RICE176964097517011837139292442816171726001.49
6SORGH1339214619705207106629550103819852780974186226071.39
7WHEAT177718213009795114558726897124273969667166727261.30
8COWPEAA24213910508342265917141244329622107914531.68
9GRAM572954121340210419929016322142977310501.78
10GRNDNTT249126858968220012162223694991011167622661.65
11BEANS299517793310462912713809780914272062637112216221.62
12PIGPEA9501051821185947351887326585765688123516151.37
13SOYBEANANN20918979410382231950135232315607104214141.65
14CASSAVAVAA286508482160628813406277929833105964410354107761.00
15SW.POT36053922919233050358815862537320451998319105051.39
16WH.POT132217064640595113619841667741415322237497410392163281.79
17BANANA0022126112838987648089815957630076511.00
18OIL PALM002131132271131668100012331.00
19SUGCANEE21421541337163429873158370739361932722684240891.00
20COFFEE9691030851132141726967       
21COTTON6764278251333309       
22PINEAPP11929161892810       
23PYRETH744407654234149143921905       
24SISAL215557568132526665193       
25TEA723235340453063101844036       
26FUELW124531110375921021531364201011487416283169674742519254101.00
27FUELW2437081848113630126967206892810130195313411042011197116221.00
28GRASS5567803253251204030964490181548317586183895000567959391.00

PROVINCE TOTAL: (8) Western Province (Assumption Set B)Page: P008

Arable Land by Productivity Classes (100 ha):

NRZONEC1
> 80
C2
60–80
C3
40–60
C4
20–40
Total
C1–C4
C5
5–20
Total
C1–C5
Total ExtentC1–C4
% of Zone
2SEMIARID0000066190.6
3SUBHUMID131201712959739250258.6
4HUMID33116501614231159054466351816872.3
 TOTAL33216531734248162005506750868571.4

Potential Crop Production:

  Land by Productivity Class (100 ha)Class C1–C4Class C1–C4
NRCROPC1
> 80
C2
60–80
C3
40–60
C4
20–40
Total
C1–C4
C5
5–20
Production (1000 mt)Yields (kg/ha) 
MINAVGMAXMINAVGMAXMCI
1BARLEYY0019016801870348190236498483126326622.01
2MAIZEE2179892317142441759679110817411600261041022.40
3OATS001431034117723794111022934593119441.76
4MILLET006748125972918285115421912.90
5RICE38341292280834793954897849371406225326932.58
6SORGH033433127347428412045081061588146130552.17
7WHEAT1016215821745190395225464542128826591.85
8COWPEAA0181444526269431486759091212752.26
9GRAM001138138214358123455668802.49
10GRNDNTT00123743862798284774728122319232.25
11BEANS29238822022683269913623139350786014632.14
12PIGPEA7077289245528912634173303472599104916321.93
13SOYBEANANN0010233243290010193140477412732.36
14CASSAVAVAA10048237015842536297223122488256291179812101051.00
15SW.POT171881683184236938431369207545787434112652.00
16WH.POT001431393153718495111201246833287815160572.03
17BANANA0641642086231430881577165918616814716980421.00
18OIL PALM00127183477889930102510931.00
19SUGCANEE0878372341326627268252856486372527026225264481.00
20COFFEE193814872232041991244       
21COTTON00813964782884       
22PINEAPP6414910651030230899       
23PYRETH819039816332228275       
24SISAL0101229128616174203       
25TEA105806983243643291139       
26FUELW1187415393112666537863745375937815728575057841.00
27FUELW2410382810211272653178347839784701277912856129681.00
28GRASS73536711471128871653934429460046436182642064791.00

DISTRICT TOTAL: (101) KiambuCentral ProvincePage: D001

Arable Land by Productivity Classes (100 ha):

NRZONEC1
> 80
C2
60–80
C3
40–60
C4
20–40
Total
C1–C4
C5
5–20
Total
C1–C5
Total ExtentC1–C4
% of Zone
1ARID0000000110.
2SEMIARID334413811615326957820.0
3SUBHUMID22929617262759125884110968.4
4HUMID293591308526052686960.5
 TOTAL29165934210914012781679256754.6

Potential Crop Production:

  Land by Productivity Class (100 ha)Class C1–C4Class C1–C4
NRCROPC1
> 80
C2
60–80
C3
40–60
C4
20–40
Total
C1–C4
C5
5–20
Production (1000 mt)Yields (kg/ha) 
MINAVGMAXMINAVGMAXMCI
1BARLEYY287640352621341235122327409913243530521.57
2MAIZEE8029022331624175642152701029344043281.25
3OATS2645675856129520579236300608182323191.47
4MILLET00463671113454066207121.65
5RICE0004450001706111512521.00
6SORGH802902237166414139154195583231529401.29
7WHEAT81672348192129315575282368563217928491.47
8COWPEAA00088700013515007241.40
9GRAM00000960000000.
10GRNDNTT000886401158381811681.40
11BEANS110491426233125928155145186435115314741.65
12PIGPEA0079331410174629381517169331.19
13SOYBEANANN00088700013725317731.40
14CASSAVAVAA040991035744859634654572060831.00
15SW.POT000797948782530994313438471.00
16WH.POT10946355015712809251315011928400811729150662.00
17BANANA0002727261313134995499549951.00
19SUGCANEE000004100000000.
20COFFEE01772360413404       
23PYRETH0339210563111177       
24SISAL002091111702       
25TEA533314333485132       
26FUELW12119220016515591539479719806074623162861.00
27FUELW2114110314416815291891919198720111254812995131471.00
28GRASS47771412716614835401128117311887602790580071.00

DISTRICT TOTAL: (102) KirinyagaCentral ProvincePage: D002

Arable Land by Productivity Classes (100 ha):

NRZONEC1
> 80
C2
60–80
C3
40–60
C4
20–40
Total
C1–C4
C5
5–20
Total
C1–C5
Total ExtentC1–C4
% of Zone
2SEMIARID00591964714233029.0
3SUBHUMID1021842433587543251669.4
4HUMID22153400216021654039.9
 TOTAL32175129334669121790138648.3

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