3.4 Prospective developments in food and nutrition

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The implications of the above-described prospects in the demand and production for the evolution of per caput food supplies for direct human consumption by major commodities are summarized in Table 3.3 and those for the incidence of chronic undernutrition in Table 3.4. By and large, it can be expected that the trends towards increasing per caput food supplies in most developing countries will continue. In particular, the average food supplies for the projected 2 billion population of East Asia may reach just over 3000 calories/day. Thus, this region will be edging towards the relatively high levels of Near East/North Africa, with the Latin America/Caribbean region following closely behind. In all three regions, though not in all countries in them, the incidence of undernutrition may fall by year 2010 to the fairly low level of 4 -6 percent of the total population. This possible evolution will be helped by a probable fall in inequality of access to food supplies which, as noted in Chapter 2, may be expected to improve as average food supplies edge up towards the 3000 + calorie level. Such an assumption is incorporated in the projections of undernutrition in Table 3.4.

South Asia may also be expected to make significant progress, but the initial conditions are such that by 2010 the per caput food supplies would still be in the low-middle level (2450 calories/day). Accordingly, the incidence of undernutrition is likely to remain high, particularly if measured in terms of the absolute numbers of persons affected. Still, the possible halving of the percentage of the population chronically undernourished to 12 percent by year 2010 denotes significant, though not sufficient, progress.

Concerning sub-Saharan Africa, the earlier discussion of population, economic growth and aggregate agriculture already foreshadowed the conclusions shown in Tables 3.3 and 3.4, i.e. that little progress can be expected to be made in raising per caput food supplies. Undernutrition will probably remain disturbingly widespread and still affect by year 2010 nearly one-third of the population (300 million people). Indeed, the region will take over from South Asia as the one with the highest number of persons chronically undernourished, no matter that its total population will be by then only about half as large as that of South Asia.

Table 3.3 Per caput food supplies for direct human consumption (kg/caput)

*Data and projections for the ex-CPEs are before revision of the ex-USSR's cereals production data from bunker to clean weight (see Table 3.17). Revised data for the ex-CPEs: 69/71 652kg;
88 90 790 kg; 2010 693 kg

Table 3.4 Per caput food supplies for direct human consumption (calories/day) and possible evolution of the incidence of chronic undernutrition

Things may turn out otherwise if sub-Saharan Africa were to lift itself out of quasi-perennial economic stagnation; and if its agriculture were to make even more progress than assessed as probable in this study. In the quest for policy responses to the deteriorating nutritional situation of sub-Saharan Africa, the agricultural assessment of this study indicates that there are certainly potentialities for higher growth than anticipated here in certain commodity sectors. But it would be far fetched to assume that they would materialize in an environment of nearly stagnant per caput incomes which constrain effective demand domestically, while the demand for the main agricultural exportables will also be sluggish. These conditions are hardly propitious for providing incentives to stimulate introduction of feasible technologies and investments in

Table 3.5 Major commodity groups in total gross agricultural production, 93 developing countries

The growth rates of the historical period are obtained taking all the annual data into account (try statistically fitting exponential curves in the annual data as is the standard practice). It is, therefore, possible for the 20-year growth rate to result as lower or higher than the growth rates of the two component 10-year periods, or their average. resource improvements that would cause this productive potential to express itself. And stagnant economies will continue to constrain the resources of the public sector for investing in agriculture to boost its production performance (e.g. infrastructure, research, extension, education, etc.). There is certainly scope for more optimistic outcomes in food and agriculture if the widespread policy reforms currently being implemented and the external environment, including resource flows, were to lead to faster overall development than indicated by the assessments of other organizations (see Table 3.1).

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