TABLE 5. Estimated trade effects on selected forest products of Uruguay Round tariff changes in key developed and developing country markets: 1991 trade levels (US$'000)

TABLE 5. Estimated trade effects on selected forest products of Uruguay Round tariff changes in key developed and developing country markets: 1991 trade levels (US$'000)

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Importer Developing country imports Developed country imports Total change
Trade creation Trade diversion Total effect Trade creation Trade diversion Total effect Percentage of forest products imports

A B A B A B A B A B A B A B A B

Australia 2 042 5 073 (256) 0 1 786 5 073 10 871 10 871 256 0 11 127 10 871 12 913 15 944 1.1 1.3

Canada 19 689 (77) 0 (58) 689 3 596 3 596 77 0 3 673 3 596 3 615 4 285 0.2 0.2

European Union 0 65 746 (201 756) 0 (201 756) 65 746 198 591 198 591 201 756 0 400 346 198 591 198 591 264 336 0.4 0.6

Japan 36 701 74 759 (16 383) 0 20 318 74 759 37 783 37 783 16 383 0 54 166 37 783 74 484 112 543 0.6 0.9

New Zealand 0 128 (3) 0 (3) 128 560 560 3 0 563 560 560 689 0.3 0.4

South Africa¹ 36 36 0 0 36 36 30 30 0 0 30 30 66 66 0.0 0.0

United States 0 24 472 (604) 0 (604) 24 472 24 317 24 317 604 0 24 921 24 317 24 317 48 788 0.2 0.4

All developed countries 38 798 170 902 (219 079) 0 (180 281) 170 902 275 748 275 748 219 079 0 494 827 275 748 314 546 446 650 0.4 0.5

China 4 402 4 402 0 0 4 402 4 402 3 570 3 570 0 0 3 570 3 570 7 972 7 972 0.2 0.2

India 303 303 0 0 303 303 651 651 0 0 651 651 954 954 0.2 0.2

Republic of Korea 1 402 1 402 0 0 1 402 1 402 8 486 8 486 0 0 8 486 8 486 9 889 9 889 0.4 0.4

Malaysia 569 569 0 0 569 569 146 146 0 0 146 146 715 715 0.1 0.1

Thailand 5 337 5 337 0 0 5 337 5 337 827 827 0 0 827 827 6 164 6 164 0.5 0.5

All developing countries 12 013 12 013 0 0 12 013 12 013 13 682 13 682 0 0 13 682 13 682 25 694 25 694 0.3 0.3

All countries 50 811 182 915 (219 079) 0 (168 268) 182 915 289 430 289 430 219 079 0 508 509 289 430 340 240 472 345 0.4 0.4

Importer	Developing country imports	Developed country imports	Total change
	Trade creation	Trade diversion	Total effect	Trade creation	Trade diversion	Total effect		Percentage of forest products imports
	A	B	A	B	A	B	A	B	A	B	A	B	A	B	A	B
Australia	2 042	5 073	(256)	0	1 786	5 073	10 871	10 871	256	0	11 127	10 871	12 913	15 944	1.1	1.3
Canada	19	689	(77)	0	(58)	689	3 596	3 596	77	0	3 673	3 596	3 615	4 285	0.2	0.2
European Union	0	65 746	(201 756)	0	(201 756)	65 746	198 591	198 591	201 756	0	400 346	198 591	198 591	264 336	0.4	0.6
Japan	36 701	74 759	(16 383)	0	20 318	74 759	37 783	37 783	16 383	0	54 166	37 783	74 484	112 543	0.6	0.9
New Zealand	0	128	(3)	0	(3)	128	560	560	3	0	563	560	560	689	0.3	0.4
South Africa¹	36	36	0	0	36	36	30	30	0	0	30	30	66	66	0.0	0.0
United States	0	24 472	(604)	0	(604)	24 472	24 317	24 317	604	0	24 921	24 317	24 317	48 788	0.2	0.4
All developed countries	38 798	170 902	(219 079)	0	(180 281)	170 902	275 748	275 748	219 079	0	494 827	275 748	314 546	446 650	0.4	0.5
China	4 402	4 402	0	0	4 402	4 402	3 570	3 570	0	0	3 570	3 570	7 972	7 972	0.2	0.2
India	303	303	0	0	303	303	651	651	0	0	651	651	954	954	0.2	0.2
Republic of Korea	1 402	1 402	0	0	1 402	1 402	8 486	8 486	0	0	8 486	8 486	9 889	9 889	0.4	0.4
Malaysia	569	569	0	0	569	569	146	146	0	0	146	146	715	715	0.1	0.1
Thailand	5 337	5 337	0	0	5 337	5 337	827	827	0	0	827	827	6 164	6 164	0.5	0.5
All developing countries	12 013	12 013	0	0	12 013	12 013	13 682	13 682	0	0	13 682	13 682	25 694	25 694	0.3	0.3
All countries	50 811	182 915	(219 079)	0	(168 268)	182 915	289 430	289 430	219 079	0	508 509	289 430	340 240	472 345	0.4	0.4

Note: Scenario A assumes a medium elasticity of demand for forest product imports; pre-Uruguay Round tariffs on imports in developing country markets are at MFN rates; and pre-Uruguay Round tariffs on imports in developed country markets are at GSP rates for developing country imports and MFN rates for developed country imports. Scenario B assumes a medium elasticity of demand for forest product imports, and pre-Uruguay Round tariffs on imports in all markets are at MFN rates.
¹ No GSP rates for developing country imports in pre-Uruguay Round tariffs.

Source: Barbier (1995).