The official March seeding intentions report (released 30 April) indicated wheat plantings would rise to some 13 million hectares, 16 percent up from 1995, while those for coarse grains would rise to 8.2 million hectares, also 16 percent up from 1995. However, seeding was delayed in the major producing areas due to excessive moisture. Consequently, the actual area seeded to wheat is now expected to be somewhat less than earlier anticipate while area seeded to coarse grains and oilseed crops is expected to be slightly higher. Crop emergence is expected to be 1 to 2 weeks behind normal but if normal weather conditions prevail for the remainder of the growing season, crops should still be mature in time to harvest before the arrival of the first frosts and, even if yields are reduced because of the shorter growing period, outputs are forecast to be substantially up from 1995. Aggregate wheat output in 1996 is tentatively forecast to reach about 28.5 million tons (1995: 25 million tons), while for coarse grains, output is put at over 26 million tons (1995: 24 million tons).
The outlook for the 1996 wheat crop in the United States has deteriorated since the last report due to adverse spring weather. The first official estimate of winter wheat production based on conditions as of 1 May put output at 37.1 million tons, versus 42.1 million tons last year. At this level, the winter wheat crop would be the lowest in 18 years. Despite a slow start to spring wheat planting, by 10 June, virtually all of the crop in key states had been planted. Although spring wheat output is tentatively forecast to increase somewhat, this is not expected to offset the decline in winter wheat production. The official forecast for aggregate (winter and spring) wheat output was put at 56.4 million tons versus 59.5 million tons in 1995.
The outlook for the coarse grain crop is satisfactory. After earlier planting delays in several important producing areas, weather conditions improved in late May and early June and reports indicate that the bulk of the intended area was sown within normal sowing dates. The official March seeding intentions report indicated that the area planted to maize this year would increase by about 12 percent due to reduced area restrictions and attractive prices. Based on this, and assuming normal weather, the United States� first official production forecast projected an aggregate 1996 coarse grains output of 266 million tons.