Harvesting of the 1996 maize crop has been somehow delayed following heavy rains in late April in the main growing areas. By early June, about 85 percent of the area planted had been harvested compared to 92 percent by the same time a year ago. The quality of the maize is reported good, but yields so far are among the lowest in years despite a more intensive use of fertilizers. Output is forecast to decrease from a high 11.4 million tons in 1995 to 10.7 million tons, notwithstanding larger plantings, but would still remain above average. The decline has been principally caused by the very hot and dry conditions at planting, particularly in the main producing provinces of Cordoba and La Pampa. By contrast, sorghum production is expected to increase from last year�s 1.7 million tons to 2 million tons, mostly as a result of an increase in the area planted caused by attractive prices and anticipated increased exports. By early June, about 90 percent of the area sown had been harvested.
Planting of the 1996 wheat crop has started. Soil moisture is reported good for sowing, despite recent dry conditions, and the area planted should increase significantly from last year, when the crop was severely affected by a long drought. This is mainly the result of high international prices.
Harvesting of the 1996 main season cereal and potato crops is about to be completed and land is being prepared for planting of the second season crop to be started from June. Latest forecast points to an aggregate cereal crop of 1.2 million tons, compared to an above-average 1.1 million tons in the previous year. The anticipated increase in production is mainly due to a larger area planted to coarse grains, mainly maize, which has more than offset a decline in wheat plantings caused by very dry conditions at planting.
Wheat imports in the 1996/97 marketing year (July/June) are currently forecast at about 300 000 tons, close to last year�s receipts.
Harvesting of the 1996 maize crop is about to be completed, following some delays in early April caused by heavy rains in southern producing states. Output is forecast at about 31.3 million tons, compared to the record 36.3 million tons in 1995. This is principally due to a significant decline in plantings from last year due to the long dry spell which affected the largest producing states of Parana, Santa Catarina, and Rio Grande do Sul. The situation was aggravated by the shortage of credit to farmers, low prices and other financial constraints to producers. By contrast, increased plantings in the central western states, Sao Paolo and South Bahia helped partly offset the decline.
Planting of the 1996 wheat crop is underway. Latest official forecast points to a full recovery from last year�s unfavourable crop. Output is officially forecast at 2.1 million tons, almost 40 percent up from the 1995 crop. A significant increase in production is expected in the main producing southern states of Parana and Rio Grande do Sul. This is principally due to enlarged plantings in response to attractive domestic and international prices, stimulated by a government programme of price support and timely credit to farmers.
Harvesting of the 1996 maize crop is underway. Output is provisionally forecast to decrease from last year�s 984 000 tons to about 950 000 tons, but production would still be above average. The decline is due to the very dry and long spell which has seriously affected cereal planting, mainly wheat, and other food crops in the central and northern regions of the country. The 1995/96 wheat harvest has been estimated at a low 1.1 million tons compared to 1.4 million tons in the previous year.
Wheat imports in 1995/96 marketing year (December/November) are expected to increase from 650 000 tons to 850 000 tons in order to cover the domestic supply deficit caused by the drought.
Planting of the 1996/97 first season cereal crops has started. Early indications point to a slight increase in the total area planted from last year, but plantings would still be below average. The area planted to wheat is expected to increase to a slightly below-average level. This is in response to government support measures to domestic wheat producers which guarantee the purchase of the full crop at specified prices. Maize plantings are also expected to increase to an average level as a result of attractive prices to farmers. By contrast, the area planted to sorghum should decline for the second consecutive year, reflecting very low producer prices with respect to production costs and an anticipated strong competition of maize imports. The area planted to paddy is forecast to increase to an average level.
Harvesting of the 1996 main cereal and potato crops has started. In coastal areas, generally dry weather has benefited harvesting of the yellow maize and paddy crops currently underway. In the highlands, harvesting operations of the yellow maize crop have been almost completed, while harvest of the white maize crop is underway. In the eastern parts of the country, harvesting of the paddy and yellow maize crops has started. Aggregate wheat output, mainly grown in the highland areas, is anticipated to be about average. Maize production is forecast to decrease from 688 000 tons in 1995 to 611 000 tons. The decline is mainly due to a smaller area planted as a result of dry weather at planting. Paddy output is expected to be above average. A good potato crop of about 475 000 tons is also expected.
The outlook is good for 1996 cereal crops. Weather conditions have favoured developing crops in all regions. Wheat output has more than tripled last year�s harvest, particularly in areas around the capital. The output of maize, sorghum and paddy so far collected have also considerably increased with respect to last year. Overall, the 1996 wheat output is provisionally forecast at an above-average 116 000 tons. Maize production is expected to be a satisfactory 720 000 tons, compared to the last 5-year average of 680 000 tons. Barley production is anticipated to be an above-average 120 000 tons, while a bumper paddy crop is also expected.
Harvesting of the 1996 coarse grain crops has been completed. Aggregate output is provisionally estimated to be below average and about 420 000 tons, compared to last year�s 450 000 tons. This reflects decreased plantings, principally as a consequence of very dry and hot weather at planting. By contrast, harvesting of the paddy crop, the main crop, is progressing well and a record output of about 800 000 tons is preliminarily forecast, compared to an average of 630 000 tons in the last five years. This is mostly in response to increasing exports to neighbouring countries, in particular to Brazil.
Planting of the 1996 maize and sorghum crops has started, while that of paddy is underway. The outlook is uncertain for the coarse grain crops as a result of the financial restraints affecting the agricultural sector. The area planted to paddy is provisionally forecast at an above- average level, mainly due to a strong export demand from neighbouring countries.