WFP is providing supplementary food assistance to a target group of 225 000 beneficiaries, including displaced people from Nagorno Karabakh, hospital patients and inmates of social welfare institutions. The food pipeline is secured through October. Outstanding requirements for 1996 amount to 4 200 tons, valued at approximately U.S.$ 3 million.

BELARUS (28 May)

The area sown to spring cereals increased marginally to 1.43 million hectares, bringing total cereal area in 1996 up to about 2.6 million hectares. Crop outlook to date is better than last year; winter grains benefited from good conditions, winterkill is below average and abundant snowfall provided good moisture reserves for spring growth which helped crops to survive recent hot weather. The early outlook for the 1996 harvest is satisfactory so far and output is forecast at some 6 million tons, compared to 5.6 million tons in 1995.

GEORGIA* (28 May)

Cereal production in 1996 is likely to be higher than last year. Although wheat production is expected to remain poor due to seed shortages, the area and yield of maize is expected to increase substantially in response to better availability of hybrid maize seed and fertilizer. As a result, the 1996 harvest is estimated to be in the range of 600 000-800 000 tons, compared to an estimated 560 000 tons in 1995.

The country is fertile and produces a wide range of foodcrops. However, it continues to have a large structural deficit in wheat despite sharply increased bread prices and increased utilization of maize for human consumption. In 1996/97 the cereal import requirement is estimated at 380 000 tons of wheat. Commercial imports in 1996/97 are tentatively estimated at up to 150 000 tons, leaving a requirement of 230 000 tons to be covered by credits and food aid.

WFP is targeting 300 000 displaced people from Abkhazia and other vulnerable groups with supplementary food assistance. The food pipeline is in a dire state, with only 2 700 tons of wheat flour remaining in the pipeline. Donors are urged for a replenishment of the food pipeline in order to keep up the current level of assistance and to avoid disruption in targeted food distribution. Outstanding requirements for the remainder of 1996 have been calculated at 11 700 tons, valued at approximately U.S.$ 7.9 million

KAZAKHSTAN (9 June)

Sowing of the spring crop is well underway. Despite the late start to spring 13 million hectares of the targeted 16.5 million hectares had been sown to spring grains by 1 June, including 10 million of the targeted 11.5 million hectares of spring wheat. In addition some 1.5 million hectares have been sown to winter crops, mainly cereals, in the autumn. The official target for 1996 is to achieve an average grain yield of 1 ton per hectare and an output of 18 million tons, bunker weight, almost double the drought reduced harvest of 1995. Whether the target will be achieved depends crucially on weather conditions until the harvest in September and the availability of operating funds on farm. To date the outlook is better than last year. Abundant snowfall has been beneficial for the minor winter crop and helped to replenish soil moisture reserves for spring growth. Better prices and good demand for wheat in 1995/96 may have eased farm liquidity problems to some extent. However the availability of agricultural credit remains inadequate.

Despite the poor harvest in 1995, indications are that substantial quantities were exported in 1995/96 mainly to the Russian Federation. The government hopes to purchase 1.1 million tons of cereals from the 1996 at a farmgate price of US $ 120 per ton. While nearly double the price which farmers perceived in 1995, it remains substantially less than the market price.

KYRGYZ REPUBLIC (29 May)

Lack of farm-level resources and shortage of agricultural credit are expected to keep the aggregate area sown to cereals well below the official target of 600 000 hectares. Following heavy snowfall this winter, soil moisture conditions are markedly better than at the same time last year. However, inadequate seed renewal, little utilization of fertilizers and herbicides and the poor state of the irrigation system have steadily reduced yields. Spring flooding has again caused damage to infrastructure this year. Cereal output in 1995 was a disappointing 990 000 tons and the early outlook does not point to a marked improvement in 1996.

The cereal import requirement for 1995/96 is estimated to be about 200 000 tons of wheat. Against this requirement, donors have pledged 150 000 tons to date.

MOLDOVA (29 May)

A favourable outlook for 1996 cereal crops was disrupted by hot dry weather and torrential rain and hail storms in late May, which caused damage to the winter wheat crop and recently planted spring coarse grain crops in central and northern areas. Extensive replanting is reportedly necessary in the worst affected areas but the impact of the damage overall is not yet known .

The target for cereals in 1996 is around 2.9 million tons, including 1.3 million tons of wheat and 1.2 million tons of maize.

RUSSIAN FEDERATION (10 June)

Early prospects for the 1996 cereal harvest remain better than at the same time last year in spite of a mixed outlook for spring grains. West of the Urals, unusually hot weather, dry winds and very low humidity in the first two decades of May depleted soil moisture reserves and created unsatisfactory conditions for emerging spring crops in the Volga, Volga Vyatsky and Ural regions. Elsewhere, hot weather and below normal rains made top soils too dry for planting. Cooler weather as of late May and good rains in early June have improved growing conditions and serious yield losses have been averted. East of the Urals, planting is underway, about 10 days late. In these areas, moisture accumulation since last fall has been below normal and crops will need timely rains to ensure normal yields.

Spring grain planting continues to lag due to the late spring, inconsistency in the full distribution policies and slow start to the planting campaign, increasing the risk of poor weather and losses at harvest time. By 10 June only 55.8 (1995 59.0) million hectares, or about 80 percent of the spring crop area target of 69 million hectares had been sown. At the same time only 36.2 (1995: 38.2) million hectares out of the planned 41 million hectares had been sown to spring grains (excluding maize).

Winter grains have benefited from good growing conditions since planting and output is officially forecast at 27-30 million tons, including about 22 million tons of wheat and 6 million tons of rye. This compares with official estimates of 14 and 4 million tons respectively last year. Crop yields are markedly better than last year but reduced use of fertilizer and poorer cultivation practices have kept average yields close to the five year average.

Achievement of the 1996 target, variously reported at 75-85 million tons, however, will depend crucially on weather conditions until the harvest and the economic situation on farm. The latter has been helped by higher cereal prices this year, the governments "commodity loan" programme under which farmers contract future crops for access to fertilizers, fuel and leased machinery and increasing involvement of some commercial structures ( banks, financial groups and processors) in providing seasonal credits to agriculture also against liens on future crops. Nevertheless, the financial position of the agricultural enterprises remains extremely difficult. In addition, successive years of low input use, particularly of fertilizer, herbicides and pesticides is likely to keep yields below potential.

Demand for cereals has fallen sharply in recent years while imports of livestock products and other processed foods in general have increased steadily. Despite a poor harvest of 63.5 million tons in 1995 (which the newly appointed Minister of Agriculture has said was underestimated by 3-4 million tons) and slow progress with domestic procurement of grains, cereal imports in 1995/96 may not exceed 5.5 million tons (including intra-trade). The federal procurement target for 1996/97 has been set at 4.6 million tons ( 1995: 8.6 million tons), to be financed by the repayment of credits outstanding from previous years. Actual procurement of grains by the federal and regional authorities from the 1995 harvest amounted to only 9,6 million tons and included less than 1 million tons for the Federal Fund.

In March 1996, WFP completed implementation of the winter feeding programme assisting 95 000 displaced Chechens in Ingushetia, North Ossetia and Daghestan. On the basis of a recent WFP food assessment mission, it was decided to continue supplementary food aid operations within the framework of an extended UN Appeal for victims of the Chechnya conflict. WFP is urgently appealing for a replenishment of its food pipeline. Estimated requirements for the period 1 June 1996-31 March 1997 have been calculated at 1 200 tons, valued at U.S.$ 1.05 million.

TAJIKISTAN* (11 June)

The precarious food supply situation throughout the country is exacerbating ethnic tensions and has led to huge demonstrations in the north. Some six thousand people demonstrated against persistent shortages of bread in Leninabad in May. The wheat supply situation remains extremely tight as shortages of foreign exchange severely constrain commercial imports, the food aid pipeline is limited and domestic production potential is undermined by the rapid economic decline. In addition, exceptionally heavy rains have caused flooding and widespread damage in western parts, leaving hundreds of people homeless and in need of emergency assistance. The destructive effects of torrential rains and seasonal floods are exacerbated by several years of inadequate maintenance of key infrastructure on account of the dire economic situation.

In an effort to stimulate domestic cereal production the government has begun to introduce some reforms in 1995/96 including legalizing contract farming, freeing wheat prices and privatizing 50 000 hectares of land. The impact of these reforms, which reflect de facto developments in past years, are difficult to assess. However, shortages of wheat and high prices have induced farmers to plant wheat on every spare piece of ground not reserved for cultivation by the state farms. This includes private plots, vegetable gardens, orchards, roadside verges and river banks as well as upland unirrigated marginal lands. The area sown to wheat has increased but it is doubtful if the official target of doubling the wheat area to 400 000 hectares has been achieved. The extent of the flood damage in Khatlon and Leninabad oblasts has not yet been evaluated. No sharp turn around in production can realistically be expected in the space of one year given the crippling shortages of quality seed and operating capital, fertilizer, herbicide, the poor state of maintenance of the irrigation system, flood damage and the declining trend in average yields. However, the cereal harvest in 1996 could increase to between 265 000- 300 000 tons provided flood damage can be contained and growing conditions remain satisfactory until the harvest in July. The country will continue to need assistance to cover its import requirement of 300 000 tons in 1996/97 as well as additional quantities of humanitarian assistance.

Relief food assistance is needed for a target population of 620 000 people in vulnerable groups. Of this population, WFP is appealing for the needs of 400 000 people (pensioners, war widows, orphans, invalids, among whom are returnee and internally displaced persons). Confirmed pledges in the pipeline only cover WFP's needs through to October. Donors are urgently requested to cover the shortfall of 5 000 tons to the end of the year.

TURKMENISTAN (5 June)

Increasing area but declining yields have kept cereal production at around 1 million tons in the past year. The 1996 production target is 1.25 million tons from an area only slightly higher than that sown last year. As the scope to increase area planted is limited, any significant increase in production will have to come from better yields, which in turn will require better incentives for farmers and adequate and timely investment in inputs and water management. Current indications are that poor incentives to farmers, waterlogging, salination, lack of inputs and poor seed might keep output in 1996 at around 1 million tons.

The cereal supply situation is tight and the government is experiencing difficulties in providing even the reduced ration of 8 kg of flour per person per month.

THE UKRAINE (15 June)

The early outlook for the 1996 cereal harvest is favourable but spring grain plantings appear to be lagging. About half of the budget allocations to facilitate planting have been released. The state procurement target in 1996/97 is 5 million tons; in addition regional administrations are also purchasing grain. Farmers with contracts to sell grain to the state have access-in-kind to quantities of fertilizers, spare parts and machinery for up to 60 percent of the contracted price which in 1995/96 remained below world market prices for sales to the states. In 1996 the final price for grain is to be based on that ruling at commodity exchange at the time of settlement. In addition up to half of the farmers in the south have apparently made direct input for crop arrangements with international agri-business companies.

The winter wheat crop is provisionally forecast at 18-20 million tons, compared to 16.4 million tons last year. Spring crop planting started about 7-10 days later than usual but is nearing completion. By 25 May 11.9 million hectares of the targeted 14.6 million hectares had been sown , including 4.8 million hectares to spring grains (excluding maize and plantings by private farmers), compared to 5.8 million hectares at the corresponding time last year. Growing conditions have been satisfactory on the whole although turbulent weather caused some crop damage in late May and relatively hot and dry conditions are reported to be stressing crops in the south. However, the 1996 harvest target of 39 million tons might still be achieved, if the output of farmers who do not participate in the government�s input provision schemes are included.

The country has exported between 2-3 million tons of cereals from last year's harvest and could have a larger exportable surplus in 1996/97.

UZBEKISTAN (6 June)

The early outlook for the 1996 cereal harvest is satisfactory. Moisture conditions are markedly better than last year and output could recover somewhat from the 2.2 million tons harvested in 1995. However the official production target of 4.5 million tons from an area of 1.7 million hectares including 1.2 million hectares irrigated land is unlikely to be achieved. In 1995 the area sown to cereals was 1.33 million hectares, including an estimated 828 000 hectares of irrigated land. If the cotton area is to remain stable at around 1.5 million hectares, the wheat area can only be increased by reallocating land from fruit/vegetables, or other cereals ( barley and maize) and any increase in the area sown is likely to be more gradual. Moreover significant yield increases will require better producer incentives and adequate and timely investment in water management and inputs.

Cereal consumption has declined in response to a reduced bread subsidy. The import requirement has decreased steadily from a peak of about 5 million tons per annum prior to independence to an estimated 2.2 million tons of mainly wheat in 1996/97. The proportion of this which will be sourced in Kazakhstan will depend crucially on the final harvest outcome in that country.

EC (11 June)

The early potential of the 1996 cereal crops in the Community has been somewhat reduced over the past two months by the unusual weather patterns. Nevertheless, wheat and coarse grains outputs are still expected to increase by about 5 percent and 6 percent respectively from the previous year reflecting increased plantings following reduction of area restrictions. In April, after generally prolonged winter conditions, a warming trend spread eastward over most of the EC, promoting winter grain development and raising soil temperatures to favourable levels for spring grain and summer crop planting. However, precipitation amounts over the United Kingdom, northern France, the Netherlands, Belgium, and Germany were much below normal, limiting moisture for winter crops and emerging spring grains. In France, rain in northern parts, in late May improved growing conditions but came too late to avoid inevitable yield loss to crops after an exceptionally dry spring. The first official estimate of 1996 grain plantings, puts the total grain area for the 1996 harvest at 8.7 million hectares compared to 8.3 million hectares in 1995. Both wheat and barley plantings have increased by about 6 percent. In Germany, wheat area is also estimated to be up from the previous year and crops were mostly undamaged by harsh winter conditions. By contrast, the winter barley crop suffered some significant winterkill. However, production is still expected to be up because of increased plantings. In the United Kingdom, drought has already significant reduced the potential of winter cereals in some major producing areas. Good rainfall is needed soon to prevent further yield loss. By contrast to the dry north of the region, in Spain and Portugal, after several years of drought, exceptional rainfall has favoured crops but drier weather is now needed for grain maturation.

ALBANIA (12 June)

Despite generally satisfactory weather conditions, the prospects for the 1996 cereal crops are somewhat uncertain. Indications to date mostly point to another reduced output well below potential, due to continuing financial constraints on farmers and lack of essential inputs. Wheat output is not expected to improve from 1995�s reduced crop of 420 000 tons, and could be less. Thus, at most, only about half of the country�s normal consumption requirements would be covered by the domestic crop. As in the current year, with state wheat reserves reported to be virtually completely depleted, this will necessitate the continued reliance on imports to meet the needs for the staple bread production in the urban areas.

BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA* (5 June)

As part of an FAO/WFP/UNHCR Food Needs Assessment Mission to the country, an FAO team visited main agricultural areas from 18 to 29 April 1996, to assess prospects of 1995/96 winter crops and plantings of 1996 spring crops. The Mission found that agricultural and livestock production was recovering throughout the country. This is attributed to the cessation of hostilities and freedom of movement, better availability and lower cost of agricultural inputs, particularly in the Serb Republic following the lifting of the international embargo in late February 1996, as well as intensification in agriculture in the BiH Federation in response to the disruption of the industrial activities.

The agricultural situation, however, varies considerably from the BiH Federation to the Serb Republic. While in the Federation the 1996 production of the main food staples is expected to be above the pre-war levels, in the Serb Republic, although higher than in the previous year, would remain below normal. Since most of the good arable land and agricultural production is in the SR, production for the whole B&H is forecast to remain below normal.

The FAO Mission forecast the 1996 wheat production in the BiH Federation at 102 000 tons, an increase of some 8 percent from last year and well above pre-war levels due to anticipated better yields. However, the area planted declined by 9 percent reflecting economic disincentives for the production of wheat. Productions of maize and potatoes, (consumption of the latter is reported to have doubled in several areas during the war), are expected to rise by 45 percent to 207 000 tons and 313 000 tons respectively, as a result of both higher plantings and yields.

In the Serb Republic, production of wheat is anticipated at 259 000 tons, 19 percent above the level of 1995. As the economic blockade from BiH and Federal Yugoslav Republic was still in operation at planting time, the area planted remained some 40 percent below normal. However, the sharp decline in fuel and agricultural inputs prices since March this year, is likely to result in a moderate increase of yields. Maize output is forecast at some 675 000 tons, 72 percent above the poor crop of 1995 reflecting substantially larger plantings and a partial recovery in yields. Production of potatoes is expected to almost double last year�s level to 308 000 tons due to the improved availability of agricultural inputs.

With the anticipated increase in agriculture and livestock production from the second half of 1996, there will be a general improvement in the country�s food security. Overall, the rural population is expected to have a satisfactory degree of food security in 1996/97 (July/June). The food security of those with limited or no land has also improved with the normalization of trade: food markets are well supplied and food prices have declined sharply. However, the access to food of this population remained constrained by the reduced purchasing power resulting from the widespread unemployment and low level of salaries

The total wheat import requirement of Bosnia-Herzegovina in the 1996/97 marketing year is tentatively forecast at some 214 000 tons, 17 percent below that in 1995/96 mainly because the raise in domestic production. Wheat imports will only be required in the BiH Federation, which produces just one-third of its annual needs. In the Serb Republic, the wheat output is expected to cover the estimated utilization. Considering the capacity of the population in the different regions of the BiH Federation to buy its own food, the Mission estimated that at least 86 000 tons of wheat grain equivalent can be imported commercially, leaving a deficit of some 112 000 tons to be fulfilled by food aid. However, the wheat demand of the vulnerable population is higher than the recommended level of imported food aid, therefore the difference needs to be met with local purchases.

BULGARIA (12 June)

Prospects for the 1996 cereal harvest are unfavourable. Financial constraints on farmers limited access to vital inputs for planting in the autumn of 1995 and this spring, while spring crop sowing in the past weeks has been additionally affected by adverse weather. Reduced input use and the late arrival of spring weather are also expected to reduce yields. FAO�s latest forecast puts aggregate 1996 cereal output at about 5.2 million tons, 20 percent below the estimated 1995 level and well below average. As a result, the country�s already difficult food wheat supply situation is expected to tighten further while feed grain supplies are also seen to tighten considerably.

Indications of tightening wheat supplies have caused bread prices in the country to rise by a reported 25 to 50 percent over the past 5 months, but the situation has worsened in April and May when flour shortages for private bakeries have spread across the country. State bakeries have been able to maintain production with the release of state reserves of wheat, but government officials have not ruled out that imports may be required before the first supplies from the 1996 crop become available later this summer.

CROATIA (5 June)

Normal spring weather in May, after a prolonged winter, allowed planting of spring cereals, while rains towards the end of the month benefited emergency of the crops and developing of winter wheat. Despite the general favourable weather conditions during the season, production of wheat is forecast to decline from last year due to a decline in plantings as a result of diversion of land to other crops. By contrast, the area planted to spring crops is anticipated to have expanded following the re-integrating last August of one- third of the previously occupied territory. Providing favourable weather during the remaining of the season, production is likely to increase from 1995.

CZECH REPUBLIC (12 June)

The outlook for the 1996 cereal crops is satisfactory. Winter grain plantings are estimated close to the previous year�s normal level. Rainfall and higher temperatures in late May have benefited developing winter grains and emerging spring crops which got off to a slow start due to the prolonged wintry conditions. FAO forecasts the aggregate cereal area in 1996 at about 1.6 million hectares, close to the previous year�s level.

ESTONIA (5 June)

The early outlook for the 1996 cereal harvest is satisfactory. Winterkill is well below normal and good yields can be expected after favourable growing conditions since planting. The area under cereals is anticipated to be larger than in 1995 in response to high prices and reduced export availability in neighbouring states. However, yields will continue to be affected by the drawn-out process of land privatization, inadequate availability of credit and market disruption.

FORMER YUGOSLAV REPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA (5 June)

Drier and warmer weather in May favoured planting of the 1996 spring cereal crops, which was delayed by cold and rainy weather earlier. Soil moisture is reported to be adequate and early prospects are satisfactory. The outlook for the winter wheat crop this year is also favourable following abundant precipitation since the beginning of the season.

Official production estimates of the 1995 wheat crop have been revised upwards to a record level of 381 000 tons which reflects higher plantings and yields.

HUNGARY (12 June)

In Hungary, after the harsh winter, the arrival of warm weather in May favoured development of the winter wheat crop. A larger area was planted last autumn in response to price incentives and early forecasts pointed to a marginal increase in output from last year�s above-average crop. However, crops in some parts continue to be stressed by excessive moisture and significant losses could occur if drier weather doesn�t arrive soon. Furthermore, in early June, evidence of higher than normal incidence of fungal disease and pests has been reported, favoured by this year�s weather conditions. As farmers normally use minimal prophylactic pest and disease control, as a cost saving measure, the effect of these outbreaks could be serious. As a result, earlier forecasts for the winter wheat crop output may have to be revised in the coming weeks. Early indications for spring grains point to increased maize and spring wheat plantings with a shift of land from barley and oats because of relatively less attractive prices for these latter two crops.

LATVIA (5 June)

Growing conditions for 1996 winter crops have been good to date and the area sown to winter rye is estimated to have increased. However, final output will depend crucially on area sown to spring feed crops and weather conditions in the spring and summer. Crop yields are likely to remain depressed as a result of low input use and difficulties in obtaining remunerative prices for livestock.

The Government has issued licenses for the import of 70 000 tons of wheat and 167 000 tons of feedgrains in 1995/96.

LITHUANIA (6 June)

The 1996 harvest outlook is satisfactory to date and output could recover from last years poor level. However the final outcome will depend crucially on the area sown to spring grains and weather conditions until the completion of the harvest in September. The output of winter grains is expected to be markedly better than last year's as plantings increased and in addition there has been virtually no winterkill.

POLAND (12 June)

Despite increased winter grain sowings, latest indications now point to a significantly reduced cereal crop in 1996. Adverse winter conditions and the delayed onset of spring weather have resulted in larger than normal winter crop losses and have reduced the yield potential of surviving crops. Although oilseed crops were the worst hit, winter wheat, rye and barley also suffered significant losses. An official report in late May rated the winter wheat crop at 3.2 on a scale of one to five, with five the highest grade. That compared with 3.7 last year and a 3.50 average over the last six years. Winter rye had a rating of 3.3, against 1995's rating of 3.5 and a six-year average of 3.43. The report also indicated that about 3.6 million hectares of spring grains were sown by the middle of May. They were given a rating of 3.0, or 0.3 point lower than in 1995. Based on these indications, the aggregate cereal output in 1996 is now forecast to drop to about 22 to 23 million tons compared to last year�s good crop of nearly 26 million tons. At the forecast level, grain production would fall short of tentative projections of utilization in 1996/97 by about 1 million tons which would need to be made up by imports.

ROMANIA (12 June)

Prospects for the 1996 cereal crop have deteriorated over the past two months due to prolonged wintry weather. Conditions have been particularly bad in southern parts where snowfalls through as late as April damaged a significant area of wheat. Latest official reports indicate losses of as much as 1.5 million tons of the potential wheat crop in 1996, already expected to be down from 1995�s good level because of reduced plantings. The adverse weather conditions also hampered spring planting which may have reduced the final area sown from earlier intentions and could effect yields. FAO currently forecasts aggregate cereal production in 1996 at about 18 million tons. However, the final outcome will still depend largely on weather conditions for the remainder of the season and availability of machinery and spare parts at harvest time. The agriculture sector already struggled to harvest last year's crop and carry out this year�s planting because of an acute shortage of serviceable farm machinery, and the situation is not seen to improve for the coming harvest.

Even if current forecasts materialize, following large exports of last year�s good crop, the wheat supply situation is expected to tighten considerably in the current year. In early June, the government announced that, as a precautionary measure to ensure adequate domestic supply, 1996 wheat exports would be suspended until the likely outcome of the 1996 harvest became clearer. Furthermore, state-owned grain producers will be obliged to deliver their entire 1996 output to the National Agency for Agricultural Products.

SLOVAK REPUBLIC (12 June)

Prospects for the 1996 winter grain crop are satisfactory. Official reports indicate that winter wheat was sown on about 500 000 hectares, which is about normal. Normally barley and maize are sown in the spring on about 250 000 hectares and 130 000 hectares respectively. However, this year, the delay the beginning of spring farm work due to prolonged winter conditions could have limited spring grain planting and reduce yields. Due to tight grain availability on domestic markets in early 1996, the government has released 200 000 tons of grain from state reserves.

SLOVENIA (5 June)

Prospects for the 1996 winter wheat crop, remain generally satisfactory. Normal spring weather in May, following prolonged winter conditions, benefited the vegetative development of the crop while the abundant rains of previous months provided ample soil moisture. The warmer weather of May also allowed planting of the 1996 maize and other spring cereal crops. Growing conditions are satisfactory and the early outlook is favourable.

YUGOSLAVIA, FED. REP. OF (SERBIA AND MONTENEGRO)* (5 June)

Despite general favourable weather conditions since the beginning of the season, the outlook for the 1996 winter wheat crop remains poor. Latest official estimates indicate an area planted to wheat of only 565 000 hectares, 38 percent less than in 1995 and the lowest level in many years. The reduction in plantings reflects shortages of fuel at sowing time and diversion of land to more profitable crops.

Favourable weather in May allowed completion of the 1996 spring cereals planting. Early prospects are promising. The area planted to the main maize crop was programmed to increase 7 percent from last year, when a bumper crop was obtained, due to diversion of land from wheat and because of the lifting of the UN trade sanctions last March. Yields are also expected to be higher due to improved availability of agriculture inputs following the normalization of trade. However, farmers� financial difficulties will limit recovery of yields to pre-war levels.