Worksheet 18. Exercises for Forecasting and Futures Analysis.

Assign groups to determine your forecasting needs, and to suggest techniques for making the forecasts. Below we illustrate the types of forecasts that may be important. Place check marks to indicate which forecasts are relevant in your context. Use brainstorming (Worksheet 6) to add to and modify this list to fit your circumstances. Then, convene your full planning team to discuss these recommendations.

Changes in the legal framework for forest protection and management - next 5 years. Your agency's budget and organizational structure - 5 years from today. The availability of skilled foresters, hydrologists, wildlife specialists, and related professionals in your country - 5 years from today. Tendencies in international aid for forest development and conservation - next 5 years (funding levels, program shifts, changing composition of aid agencies). New social and demographic issues in relation to forests - next 10 years. Changes in transportation routes and transportation technology that will affect the area and composition of forests - next 10 years. Changes in agricultural demands and agricultural technology that will affect the area and composition of forests - next 10 years. Emergence of new or larger enterprises that use raw materials from forests and woodlands - next 10 years. Changes in domestic demand for pulp and paper - next 10 years. New markets for non-timber forest products - next 10 years. Changes in the composition and quantity of imported and exported forest products-next 10 years. The physical areas, types, and composition species, age classes, stocking, etc.) of your country's forests and woodlands - 10, 25, and 100 years from today. Other forecasting needs (and modifications of the preceding topics): ............................................................................................................................................................ ............................................................................................................................................................ ............................................................................................................................................................ ............................................................................................................................................................