FAO/GIEWS - Food Outlook May/June 1997 page2

FAO/GIEWS - Food Outlook May/June 1997

BASIC FACTS OF THE WORLD CEREAL SITUATION

	1993/94	1994/95	1995/96	1996/97	1997/98 forecast	Change 1997/98 over 1996/97
WORLD PRODUCTION 1/	(. . . . . . . . . . . . . . million ton . . . . . . . . . . . . . . )					(percentage)
Wheat	564	528	547	590	583	-1.1
Coarse grains	809	893	810	905	926	2.4
Rice, milled	355	362	369	377	377	-0.1
(paddy)	(529)	(539)	(550)	(562)	(562)	-
All cereals (including milled rice)	1729	1783	1726	1872	1887	0.8
Developing countries	932	932	957	1003	1009	0.5
Developed countries	797	851	769	869	878	1.1
WORLD IMPORTS 2/
Wheat	95	92	93	90	93	3.6
Coarse grains	85	88	91	85	86	0.8
Rice (milled)	17	21	19	18	18	-
All cereals	196	202	204	193	197	2.0
Developing countries	131	145	149	140	145	3.9
Developed countries	66	56	54	54	52	-3.0
FOOD AID IN CEREALS 3/	13.0	9.4	7.5	7.5
WORLD UTILIZATION
Wheat	563	554	564	578	581	0.5
Coarse grains	841	881	859	885	907	2.4
Rice (milled)	359	367	372	378	378	-0.1
All cereals	1763	1801	1795	1841	1866	1.3
Developing countries	1017	1049	1080	1102	1115	1.2
Developed countries	746	753	716	740	751	1.5
Per Caput Food Use	( . . . . . . . . . . . . kg/year . . . . . . . . . . . . .)
Developing countries	171	172	172	173	173	0.1
Developed countries	130	129	129	130	130	0.2
WORLD STOCKS 5/	( . . . . . . . . . . . . million tons . . . . . . . . . . . )
Wheat	146	118	103	110	111	0.5
Coarse grains	137	147	101	118	131	11.1
Rice (milled)	62	55	53	53	52	-0.5
All cereals	346	320	258	281	294	4.8
Developing countries	169	159	153	153	151	-0.7
Developed countries	176	161	105	128	143	11.3
Stocks as % of world	( . . . . . . . . . . . . percentage . . . . . . . . . . . . .)
cereal consumption	19.2	17.8	14.0	15.1	15.7
EXPORT PRICES 3/	( . . . . . . . . . . . . . U.S.$/ton . . . . . . . . . . . . . .)
Rice (Thai, 100%, 2nd grade) 1/	250	289	336	352	344 6/	-6.5 7/
Wheat (U.S. No.2 Hard Winter)	143	157	216	183 8/
Maize (U.S. No.2 Yellow)	113	104	159	137 8/
OCEAN FREIGHT RATES 3/
From U.S. Gulf to Egypt	15.1	19.0	16.8	13.0 8/
LOW-INCOME FOOD-DEFICIT COUNTRIES 9/	( . . . . . . . . . . . million tons . . . . . . . . . . . .)
Roots & tubers production 1/	347	338	352	350
Cereal production 1/	891	890	920	956	963	0.7
Per caput production (kg.)	261	256	260	266	264	-0.8
Cereal imports 2/	62.6	71.9	76.3	61.7
of which: Food aid 3/	8.1	7.9	5.9	5.9
Proportion of cereal import	( . . . . . . . . . . . . percentage . . . . . . . . . . .)
covered by food aid	12.9	11.0	7.7	9.6

SOURCE: FAO
Note: Totals and percentages computed from unrounded data.
1/ Data refer to the calendar year of the first year shown.
2/ July/June except for rice for which the data refer to the calendar year of the second year shown.
3/ July/June.
4/ Forecast based on donors’ budgetary allocations and their minimum contributions under the Food Aid Convention (FAC) 1995.
5/ Stock data are based on aggregate of national carryover levels at the end of national crop years.
6/ Average of quotations for January-May 1997.
7/ Change from corresponding period of previous year for which figures are not shown.
8/ Average of quotations for July 1996-May 1997.
9/ Food deficit countries with per caput income below the level used by the World Bank to determine eligibility for IDA assistance (i.e. U.S.$ 1 395 in 1994), which in accordance with the guidelines and criteria agreed to by the CFA should be given priority in the allocations of food aid.