Insecurity persists throughout the country with a renewal of violent incidents reported in Bururi, Makamba and in Cibitoke provinces.
Harvesting of the 1997 second season foodcrops is about to start. Prospects are satisfactory reflecting overall good rains during the growing season but production is anticipated to remain below pre-crisis level as a result of reduced plantings due to insecurity. Despite a delayed start of the rains, precipitation has been abundant during the season benefiting mainly cereal and tuber crops. By contrast, the heavy rains negatively affected the bean crop and reduction in yield is anticipated. Provisional forecasts point to an aggregate food output slightly above the reduced level of the 1996 second season production. An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission is scheduled to visit the country in mid-June.
The food situation remains tight. The partial lift of the trade embargo by neighbouring countries has not effectively materialized yet despite official declaration by the OAU on 16 April 1996. Food prices have not declined as expected and remain at high levels, with increases for some crops such as potatoes and sweet potatoes due to seasonal factors at this time of the year. Access to food remains difficult for large sections of the population, particularly in urban areas where the increase in prices is higher reflecting substantially increased transport cost. The food situation is particularly serious for the most vulnerable population estimated at 796 000 persons, including 284 000 displaced, 28 000 dispersed, 187 000 persons in regroupment camps and some 219 000 affected by a poor harvest in the 1997 A crop season. The situation of some 100 000 refugees, mainly from the Democratic Republic of Congo, is also critical.
Planting of the 1997 main season cereal crop has started. Generally normal rains in May, which were abundant in the important growing southern highland areas, benefited soil conditions for sowing operations. Early prospects are favourable.
Despite a reduced 1996 cereal harvest, food prices remain stable reflecting substantial cross-border imports from Ethiopia. Food aid requirements were estimated by an FAO/WFP Mission last December at 289 000 tons. Against this requirement pledges until the end of April amount to 15 700 tons.
Prospects for the 1997 secondary �belg� crop, to be harvested from June, are uncertain reflecting delayed rains and erratic precipitation in some areas. The �belg� crop accounts for only some 7 percent of the annual cereal production but in several areas it provides the bulk of the annual food supplies. Rains, which normally start in February, were not established until mid-March. Precipitation was abundant in the second half of March, normal to above normal in April and diminished in May but remaining normal in most parts. In areas of Southern Tigray, North Wello, South Wello and North Shoa poor rains, coupled with the late onset of the season, have resulted in reduction in plantings and yields. This will also affect timely planting of short-maturing �meher� crop (teff, wheat, barley and pulse crops). The full impact of the dry weather in these areas is being assessed
Planting of the main 1997 �meher� season crops is underway. Early prospects are satisfactory, reflecting good availability of agricultural inputs, mainly fertilizers. However, prices of cereals are well below their level of the previous year which may result in a decrease in the area planted.
In pastoral areas of the south and southeast (Borena zone of Oromia region and Somali region) which were affected by failure of the short rains season (October to December), abundant rains since the third dekad of March substantially improved water availability and pasture conditions. However, following losses of livestock, depletion of stocks and deterioration of the terms of trade (animals for grain), the affected population, estimated at 1 million persons, will remain dependent on food aid for the coming months, until the livestock are fully recovered.
The overall national food situation remains satisfactory following the record 1996 main �Meher� cereal crop, harvested in December, which resulted in export surpluses. Despite the good output, some 1.9 million persons are estimated to be in need of food assistance due to structural food insecurity or localized weather adversities.
Prices of cereals, which declined from November reflecting the bumper crop, started to increase from March following exports to neighbouring countries, including significant quantities of cross-border export to Eritrea, and replenishment of the Food Security Reserve.
KENYA (20 June) Prospects for the 1997 main �long rains� cereal crop, to be harvested from October in the main growing areas, are favourable. Rains in late March and April were abundant; they stopped in early May but resumed at normal levels in late May and two first dekades of June. In pastoral areas of the Eastern and North-Eastern Provinces, the good rains during the season have resulted in a recovery of pastures and replenishment of water supplies. However, the beginning of the rains was late by ten days to two weeks and heavy in most parts. This delayed planting operations and caused reductions in maize planting intentions. Despite prevailing high prices of maize, preliminary estimates indicate the area planted to be below target. However, providing good weather continues during the remainder of the growing season, yields and production should increase substantially over last year in response to larger use of agricultural inputs.
Preliminary estimates by the end of April indicate an area planted to maize of 1.044 million hectares. This is below the target level of 1.2 million hectares set by the Ministry of Agriculture but similar to the normal level of 1995. In the important maize growing Rift Valley Province, which accounts for some 60 percent of the long rains season maize output, plantings declined by 19 percent from the reduced level of the previous year due to the factors mentioned above. By contrast, in Nyanza, Eastern and Central provinces, where the short rains are important for crop production and the 1996/97 crop was severely reduced, plantings have increased significantly in response to the good rains of the current season. The small plots and low mechanization of agriculture in these provinces meant that farmers could cope better with the delayed start of the rains. Overall, early forecasts point to a maize output above both the average and last year�s below normal crop, but lower than the bumper crop of 1994.
The early outlook for the wheat crop is promising and sowings are estimated to remain at the above-average level of last year. By contrast, the areas planted to beans and Irish potatoes are estimated to be reduced reflecting severe shortages of seeds as a result of the poor harvest of the 1996/97 short rains season.
As a result of the reduced harvest in 1996/97, the overall food supply situation remains tight with sharply increased food prices, which are beyond the reach of large sections of the population. Food aid distribution continues in pastoral and marginal agriculture areas affected by a prolonged drought during the 1996/97 �short rains� season, where the food situation has eased with the gradual recovery of the pastures and animals health.
Prospects for the 1997 second season foodcrops, about to be harvested, are favourable reflecting generally adequate rains during the growing season and an increase in plantings following the massive return of refugees late in 1996.
However, excessive rains in parts, particularly in the Butare prefecture, resulted in crop losses and the output is likely to be reduced. In general, the abundant rains during the season benefited cereal and root and tuber crops but negatively affected yield potential of the bean crop. An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission is schedule to visit the country in mid-June.
The difficult food situation for some 2.6 million vulnerable people, mainly returnees who did not cultivate any crop in the previous season, is expected to ease in the coming months with the new harvest. The security situation remains tense in western prefectures, particularly in Ruhengeri and Gisenyi where violent incidents continue to be reported. This is hampering distribution of food aid to vulnerable populations
Although growing conditions for the 1997 �Gu� season crop are favourable so far, reflecting abundant rains since late March, plantings and productivity of cereal crops are expected to remain constrained due to shortages and high prices of seeds and other agricultural inputs, as well as the adverse effects of continuing civil conflict.
The food situation in the country is rapidly deteriorating following the drought-reduced 1997 � Der� season harvest and the persistent civil conflict. The main �Gu� crop harvested last September was also reduced and in aggregate the 1996/97 cereal production is estimated at about one-half the pre- civil strife level. Prices of grains, which normally decrease after harvest, have risen significantly since last September. The price of sorghum as of 1 May had quadrupled its level of September and at 4 000 Somali Shillings per Kg (US $ 550 per ton) is well above international prices and beyond the purchasing power of a large section of the population. By contrast, increased selling of livestock due to shortages of water and fodder has caused a substantial decline in its price. Significant movements of population, mainly from Bay and Bakool regions towards Juba Valley, Mogadishu and Kenya border, in search of food and income generation opportunities continue. Incidence of severe malnutrition among children has risen considerably since February, particularly in the Baidoa and Bay regions. The nutritional situation is reported to be alarming in the recently established settlements for the displaced in Baidoa town, for people coming from villages in Dinsor district, as well as for the local population in the Qansaxdhere and Berdale districts. Malnutrition is also reportedly increasing in Mogadishu and Kisimayo cities; prices of food are beyond the reach of the majority of the population impoverished by the persistent civil conflict which has seriously disrupted the economy. Although abundant rains in pastoral areas since late March are benefiting pastures and the food situation is gradually improving, there is an urgent need for emergency food assistance in the most affected agricultural areas.
Following the poor 1997 �Der� harvest, cereal import requirement for 1996/97 marketing year ending August is estimated at 256 000 tons. Commercial imports are projected at 170 000 tons and food aid requirements amount to 86 000 tons. Against this, food aid received in the country by late May 1997 amounted to only 21 000 tons of cereals, of which only a small portion has actually been distributed. Food distribution continues to be hampered by insecurity and, recently, by poor condition of roads due to heavy rains. Substantial donor assistance is needed, including support for logistic operations, to avert a further deterioration of the food supply situation before the next main �Gu� harvest from late August.
Harvesting of the 1997 wheat crop is complete. A recent FAO Crop Assessment Mission estimated wheat output at an above average level of 650 000 tons, second only to the record crop produced in 1991/92. At this level, production is some 23 percent above both last year and the average for the previous five years. For the 1996/97 season, a combination of Government policy encouraging wheat production and expectations of favourable wheat prices encouraged farmers to expand planted area, where possible. As a result, aggregate area under wheat increased from 743 000 feddans (312 000 hectares) in the 1995/96 season to 796 000 feddans (334 000 hectares) this year - representing an increase of some 7 percent. Compared to the benchmark average (1988/89 - 1992/93), the area cultivated in 1997 was some 2 percent higher. In addition to an expansion in area planted, losses were lower and the overall area harvested as a proportion of that planted is likely to reach 99 percent compared to between 95 and 96 percent in previous years. The recommended time for planting wheat is November. Although temperatures during November to the beginning of January were above normal and less than optimal, which resulted in delayed planting particularly in the Northern Zone, subsequent below average temperatures from mid-January to March favoured crops. In addition to the increase in the area planted and harvested and a favourable temperature regime, overall availability of all other inputs needed for production, including fuel, fertilizers and machinery, was also adequate.
The Mission also revised slightly upwards the final estimate of sorghum production for 1996/97 to around 4.2 million tons compared to 4.1 million tons estimated earlier.
Although the overall food outlook for 1997 is favourable so far, in certain provinces and states the food supply situation remains highly precarious. Six states in Darfur and Kordofan, Red Sea State and the South are estimated to have an overall deficit of around 600 000 tons. Some of the deficit may be met through normal internal trade but, especially in North Kordofan and North Darfur, some sectors of the population will have difficulty in meeting food needs. In vulnerable areas extremely poor production last year means that stocks are negligible and income from cash crops and livestock may be insufficient to purchase enough grain. Although supplies of sorghum are moving from surplus to deficit areas, prices are extremely high and out of reach of sectors of the population with low purchasing power.
To meet the needs of vulnerable groups in the country, a total of some 74 000 tons of cereals would be required as emergency assistance in 1997. Of this amount, 39 000 tons would be to cover the needs of 2.6 million displaced and war- affected people under Operation Lifeline Sudan (OLS) and the remaining 35 000 tons as project food aid for rehabilitation projects not covered by OLS. The country also needs limited food aid in certain chronic deficit areas. A contingency plan is suggested which could support people suffering severe food deficits, either by locally purchased grain assisted by donors, or by assistance with transport from surplus producing areas.
The food supply situation has tightened in the north and north-east where the short rains season crop was sharply reduced by drought. Affected population in need of food assistance until the next harvest from August is estimated at 700 000 persons. The food situation is also difficult for some 400 000 refugees from Burundi and the Democratic Republic of Congo currently in the western region.
Harvesting of the 1997 main season crop in unimodal rainfall areas in central and southern parts is about to start. Normal rains in May, which followed abundant precipitation in April, improved the outlook for the harvest. However, the rains were late by one month and below average in parts. Despite extensive replanting with short-term varieties, yields and production of maize, beans and other foodcrops are anticipated to be below normal. Rains were normal only in western areas and good outputs are expected.
In bi-modal areas of the north and north-east, prospects for the 1997 "Masika" crops, to be harvested from August, are favourable. Normal rains since the beginning of the season in March have benefited crop establishment and development. The last �Vuli� crop was sharply reduced in these areas.
Overall, the 1996/97 production of cereals is officially forecast to decline by 18 percent to about 3.6 million tons, with production of the main staple maize expected to decline by 21 percent to a below average level of 2.1 million tons. At the expected production level there is a deficit of 936 000 tons of cereals in marketing year 1997/1998 (June/May).
Following the below-average 1997 first season food crops in several areas of the country, the food supply situation has tightened. Prices of beans and maize have more than doubled their level of a year ago. The situation is particularly difficult in the east and north-east parts which were affected by drought and in northern districts, where insecurity is hampering food aid distribution. The latest assessment estimated the number of persons affected by drought/flood in need of food assistance at 612 000. In addition, food aid is needed for about 150 000 internally displaced persons in the north and 268 945 refugees.
Prospects for the 1997 second season food crops, to be harvested from late June, are generally favourable following good rains in April and May. However in eastern and southern parts, where planting was delayed by one month due to the late start of the rains, and precipitation was below average in May, more rains are needed to avoid reductions in yield potential. In northern districts affected by continuous civil strife, production is anticipated to be reduced for the second consecutive season reflecting reductions in the area planted due to population movements.