The official March seeding intentions survey (released 30 April) reported that the total area sown to grains is expected to decrease from the previous year, with a shift of land out of wheat, barley and oats production into oilseeds. Flooding in Manitoba, which occurred after the seeding intentions report was finalized, is not expected to have a major impact on the outcome of the 1997 cereal crop as the area flooded represents only a very small proportion of Canada’s total cereal area. As of early June, seeding was reported to be almost complete in southern and central Alberta but still some two weeks off completion in northern Alberta. In Saskatchewan, sowing is well advanced and expected to be completed by mid to late-June. In Manitoba, seeding progress is more varied ranging from 100 percent complete in parts of the south-west to just 25 percent done in the north-west of the province. Assuming that this year's reduced planting intentions can be met, and assuming average yields, total wheat output in 1997 is forecast at about 27 million tons, 12 percent down from 1996, while coarse grains output is forecast 3 percent down at about 28 million tons.
Prospects for the 1997 wheat crop in the United States remain good. Favourable weather conditions over the past weeks improved the condition of winter wheat crops which had earlier been affected by frost. As a result, the latest official forecast for winter wheat output has been revised upward to 43.6 million tons, which would be some 8 percent up from the reduced crop in 1996. Early harvesting of winter wheat in the some southern parts is already underway. With regard to spring wheat, the bulk of the crop was planted under satisfactory conditions. The area is estimated to have decreased from last year's high level. Based on average yields and average harvested-to-planted ratios output is expected to be about 19 million tons. The total wheat output in 1997 is now put at 62.7 million tons, marginally up from the 1996 crop. The coarse grain crop is forecast to increase for the second consecutive year, after the sharp reduction due to drought in 1995, to 278.6 million tons 1996. Maize plantings are estimated to have increased by about 2.5 percent, and as of mid-June, the bulk of the crop was reported to be in good to excellent condition.