A recent FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission estimated the 1996/97 harvest of cereals at 431 000 tons, some 14 percent lower than last year’s good harvest, due to below normal rainfall. Rainfall was characterized by a late start, an extended mid-season dry spell and a variable finish. Western coastal areas were the worst affected, resulting in canceled or delayed planting and lower yields. Moving eastwards, the season was better with more regular rainfall patterns and reasonable production opportunities. In some of the western areas, the late start and dry spell merged, precluding the possibility of planting early first season cereals. However, first quarter 1997 rains prompted late first season planting, particularly in the lower lying and riverine areas, plus planting on the slopes and hilltops on lighter soils in the same zones. Higher than normal rainfall in December in eastern areas caused some damage to “second” season (third quarter planted) 1996 crops which had not been harvested. Generally, rainfall from mid to late February onwards was favourable and well-distributed, sustaining the development of the later planted cereals, early planted cereals that withstood the dry spell, and roots, tubers, and perennials.
NGO and UN Agency interventions providing seeds and tools were noted in many provinces and have increased the area under cultivation in most Government-controlled areas where internally displaced persons and returnees are being equipped to farm. However, cereal production continues to be constrained by the shortage of fertilizers, plant protection equipment and chemicals, hand tools and animal traction equipment in the main producing areas.
The food supply situation in the country remains tight. With an estimated 10 000 tons of cereals stored on-farm in surplus areas, the domestic availability is 441 000 tons, of which 85 percent is maize and the remainder sorghum and millet. Domestic utilization is forecast at 972 000 tons, leaving a deficit of 531 000 tons to be met by imports. Cereal import requirements in 1997/98 are estimated at 279 000 tons, indicating a shortfall of 252 000 tons to be met by food aid. Vulnerable groups requiring emergency assistance include internally displaced persons, returnees and demobilized soldiers. It is estimated that 128 000 tons of emergency food aid will be needed to meet their requirements. In addition, food aid will be required to assist the rehabilitation process. Even among settled populations, food vulnerability remains high due to lack of income generating opportunities, low purchasing power, poor infrastructure, and an absence of transport and materials for movement of goods and commodities. Programme food aid estimated at 124 000 tons will be required over the coming year to address such problems. Food aid pledges for the new marketing year amount to 169 000 tons, of which 112 000 tons have been delivered so far.
Rainfall during the 1996/97 crop season has been generally favourable despite some dry periods, particularly in February. Official forecast of production suggests a sharp decline in output as a result of reduced planted area of coarse grains. Millet and sorghum are forecast at 21 000 tons, which is one-third of last year’s crop while the maize crop stands at 6 000 tons against last year's 23 000 tons. Yields for crop planted in November/December may have been adversely affected by the February dry spell, although this effect may have been countered by good rains in March. Pests reported during the season include Quelea birds in parts of central, northern and southern areas. Control measures were taken and no serious damage to crops is expected.
Despite the drop in cereal output, the food supply situation for the 1997/98 Marketing Year is expected to be satisfactory as cereal import requirements are likely to be met by commercial imports.
Initial indications are that the 1997 cereal harvest will be much lower than the record crop in 1996. This is due to a reduction in area planted, a dry spell in February in southern districts when much of the crop was at tasselling stage and early frost in the last two weeks of April. Official preliminary crop assessment points to a harvest of 90 500 tons of maize, 13 000 tons of sorghum and 5 300 tons of wheat.
As a result of the anticipated drop in output, the food supply situation for the 1997/98 marketing year is expected to be tight. The cereal deficit, which is anticipated to exceed 250 000 tons, will be covered largely through commercial imports and some food aid.
Following cyclone “Gretelle” on 23-24 January 1997, an FAO/WFP Mission was fielded from 10 to 29 March 1997 to evaluate the loss and damage caused to food production and agricultural infrastructure by the cyclone, to estimate the food supply situation for 1997 and identify the actions needed to rehabilitate agricultural infrastructure. The Mission visited the six sub-prefectures affected by the cyclone, namely, Befotaka, Farafangana, Midongy-Sud, Vangaindrona, Vohipeno and Vondrozo.
The Mission estimated the total crop loss caused by the cyclone at 7 000 tons of rice, 123 500 tons of cassava and 8 000 tons of cash crops (mainly coffee). Despite a potential fall in yields as a result of the delay in transplanting the second (main) season rice, a good overall harvest for 1997 is forecast mainly due to good climatic conditions following the cyclone, provided the recent outbreak of migratory locusts in the southern parts of the country can be effectively controlled. Aggregate cereal production in 1997 is estimated at 2.7 million tons, about the same as in 1996.
In view of good production prospects, the food supply situation during the 1997/98 marketing year is expected to be satisfactory and the bulk of the food shortfall could be covered locally and by commercial imports. However, during the current inter-season period, emergency food aid will be required for malnourished children and pregnant and nursing mothers in the affected area, and for the people living in the sub-prefecture of Farafangana (all rural municipalities), 5 municipalities in the sub-prefecture of Vohipeno situated in the lower Matitanana, 10 municipalities in the sub- prefecture of Vangaindrano and 3 municipalities in the sub- prefecture of Vondrozo, totaling 274 172 people. The total emergency food aid requirement is estimated at 4 754 tons of rice, 791 tons of pulses, 92 tons of vegetable oil, 65 tons of sugar, 38 tons of powdered milk and 154 tons of corn and soybean blend (CSB). Three hundred tons of rice and 300 tons of CSB are already available in the country and the balance has yet to be covered. The Mission identified urgent measures to rehabilitate the agricultural sector: these include seed distribution and programmes to rehabilitate cash crops, irrigation schemes and access roads.
Excessive rains in February and a dry spell in March in central and northern parts of the country resulted in damage to maize, particularly in the northern districts of Karouga and Chitipa, where output is expected to be sharply reduced this year. The maize crop is estimated at about 2 million tons, which is slightly above last year’s above average crop. The output of rice, sorghum and wheat are also expected to be similar to last year.
The food supply situation is expected to remain satisfactory in 1997/98, given favourable production this year and substantial carryover stocks of maize from last year’s good harvest. However, areas affected by drought in the north and by floods in the south will need food assistance and should be carefully monitored during the next few months.
A recent FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission estimated total 1996/97 production of cereals at 1.53 million tons against 1.38 million tons last year, about 11 percent higher than last year. Crop damage from pests or diseases was minimal. Production of cassava, the other major staple, has also increased and it was less affected by heavy rains. The production of beans and groundnuts is estimated to have increased by 8.5 percent over to the previous year.
Reflecting the increase in food production, the overall food supply situation during the 1997/98 marketing year (April/March) is expected to be better than last year, with a coarse grains surplus estimated at 63 000 tons. However, the country will have an estimated import requirement of 205 000 tons rice and wheat. Moreover, a large number of farmers affected by floods could face food shortages in the coming months. Among the affected, however, those who would harvest second season crops in September would have some supplies, but there would still be a significant number that would have difficulty in coping with shortages unless they receive assistance.
The Mission estimated that approximately 172 000 people will require immediate food assistance for 4 months. Furthermore, 77 000 people might require assistance for an additional period of three months contingent upon the evaluation of the second season crop performance. The food aid needs for the 1997/98 marketing year are estimated at 10 114 tons, consisting of 9 288 tons of maize and 826 tons of pulses. Overall, the 1997/98 food assistance represents 46 percent of that provided last year.
Rainfall was above average in most parts of the country during the first quarter of 1997, benefiting crops and pastures. Precipitation was, however, below normal in April. As a result of larger area planted this year and increased yields, production of coarse grains is estimated at a record 164 000 tons, almost double last year’s output. Grazing conditions are good in most parts of the country.
The food situation is satisfactory. However, despite the record harvest, cereal imports will be necessary in 1997/98 to meet national consumption needs. This requirement is expected to be covered by commercial channels.
The harvesting of coarse grain has been delayed due to unseasonably wet and cold weather, also causing supply problems for shippers and local millers. This has increased prices. A recent official crop assessment estimated maize output at 7.66 million tons, some 21 percent lower than last year’s record output but about average.
Despite the reduction in production, the food situation is expected to remain satisfactory in 1997/98. The country may have about 1 million tons of maize to export during the current season, which will be the first year of full deregulation in several decades, with private traders authorized to export any amount of maize.
Above normal rains in March in all regions caused some damage to crops over half of which were at harvesting stage. The 1996/97 maize harvest is estimated at 81 000 tons, well below the previous year’s crop but close to the five-year average.
The national food supply situation for the 1997/98 marketing year is expected to remain satisfactory as a result of the availability of large carryover stocks from the good maize harvest realized during the previous production year. Although some maize imports are possible during 1997/98, they will be covered through commercial channels.
Rainfall was heavy in Central, Luapala, Lusaka, and northern provinces in early April, but diminished later in the month. A recent official crop assessment estimated the 1997 maize output at 0.96 million tons, 32 percent lower than favourable production last year, due to excessive rains earlier in the year and inadequate fertilizer supplies. The 1997 output of paddy and sorghum are also forecast to fall down by some 14 percent and 6 percent from 1996 levels, respectively. In contrast, the production of millet is forecast to rise by about 11 percent.
The food supply situation for the 1997/98 marketing year is anticipated to be tighter than in the previous year, reflecting the reduction of domestic availability. However, cereal import requirements are expected to be covered through commercial channels.
The weather was generally cool and dry in April, which facilitated drying of crops and allowed a timely harvest. Harvesting of the main season foodcrops is almost completed. The 1997 maize crop is estimated at some 2.2 million tons, 16 percent lower than last year’ good harvest but slightly above the five-year average. The output of millet and sorghum is estimated at about 220 000 tons, about the same as the above- average crop in 1996. Maize supply is expected to cover requirements, including the replenishment of stocks, and generate an exportable surplus.
The national food supply situation is expected to remain satisfactory during the 1997/98 marketing year. However, food availability and access are likely to be problematic in some districts in southern parts of the country, where rainfall was below average and the output of maize, sorghum, and millet is likely to be below average.