Recent normal to abundant rains have benefited planting of the 1997 wheat crop which had been delayed in some parts of the country due to generally dry weather since February. The dry spell affected some of the main growing areas of Cordoba, northern Buenos Aires and central and southern Santa Fe provinces. Despite the beneficial rains, plantings are likely to decline from last year’s record 7 million hectares to about 6 million hectares.
Favourable weather at harvest benefited the 1997 maize crop. By early June, about 91 percent of the area sown had been harvested, compared to 85 percent in the same period last year. Early production forecasts point to a bumper crop of 14.5 million tons, up 38 percent from 1996 and 34 percent above the last 5-year average. This is due to the combination of farmers’ decision to enlarge plantings, attracted by expanding exports, and improved yields in some areas, such as southern Buenos Aires, which helped offset the damage incurred due to fungus infection in other areas. Harvesting of the sorghum crop is also well advanced and output is provisionally forecast at an above-average 2.6 million tons, the largest output gathered in the last 4 years. Output from the recently harvested paddy crop is estimated at a record 1.1 million tons.
Normal precipitation has resumed following torrential rains and flooding by end February which affected the recently harvested 1997 main season cereal crops. Fieldwork has started in preparation for planting of the winter wheat, sorghum and potato crops, particularly in the main producing eastern department of Santa Cruz. Despite damage to main season crops, production (both seasons) for most cereals is expected to reach average to above-average levels.
Wheat imports in marketing year 1997/98 (July/June) are forecast to increase from last year’s 330 000 tons to about 375 000 tons, mainly in response to expanding demand and low carry-over stocks.
Prospects are poor for the 1997 wheat crop currently being planted. The area planted is likely to decline from last year’s satisfactory 1.8 million hectares to a slightly below- average 1.5 million hectares. This is largely attributed to low producer prices caused by the strong competition of anticipated low-cost imports. In addition, sowing has been delayed because of dry weather in the main producing states of Parana and Rio Grande do Sul, which together account for about 94 percent of domestic production.
Harvesting of the 1996/97 maize crop has been virtually completed. A bumper output of 30.5 million tons has been gathered from the first season crop, despite a decrease in plantings from last year. Overall production (first and second season crops) is provisionally put at a record 36.8 to 37 million tons, mainly due to significantly larger first season crop outputs gathered in the Central and Southern states. This is principally the result of improved yields from last year’s 3 tons/hectare to 3.5 tons/hectare, coupled with good weather.
The 1996/97 paddy crop has been recently completed and output is provisionally estimated at 9.6 million tons compared to last year’s below-average 10.1 million tons. This reflects decreased plantings in all producing states, with the exception of Santa Catarina, mostly because of a shift to more profitable crops and/or lack of rain or inadequate water reserves.
Recent storm rains brought an end to a severe drought which had been affecting the central and southern regions of the country for more than a year. The bulk of the wheat and maize crops, as well as other important fruit and export crops, are grown in these areas. The outlook is nevertheless poor for the 1997/98 wheat crop currently being sown. Plantings are expected to be close to last year’s affected crop. Harvesting of the 1997 maize crop is virtually complete and production is provisionally put at a low 790 000 tons, compared to the last 5-year average of 930 000 tons.
Wheat imports in marketing year 1997/98(February/January) are forecast to be about 750 000 tons, similar to last year. Maize imports are expected to increase from 550 000 tons to about 650 000 tons to meet domestic demand.
Planting of the 1997 main season cereal crops has been completed under favourable conditions and harvesting is due from July. Early forecasts point to a near average maize output of 1.1 million tons. Sorghum production, by contrast, is expected to decline for the third consecutive year to below-average levels. Paddy output is forecast to be average but insufficient to meet domestic demand.
Wheat imports in marketing year 1997 (January/December) are estimated at 1.1 million tons, similar to last year’s receipts, due to steady demand for food and feed. Rice imports should be about 80 000 tons to help cover the shortfall in production.
Rains during the first decade of May have been irregular in coastal areas but without any negative effect on the developing 1997 yellow maize and paddy crops. In the highlands, where irregular and ill-distributed rains are reported, harvesting of the 1997 wheat crop is about to start while that of white maize and potatoes is underway. Below- normal rains have fallen in eastern parts of the country, where harvesting of the yellow maize and paddy crops has only started. The outlook is good for all crops. An above-average wheat crop is anticipated. Maize (yellow and white) production is provisionally forecast at a record 650 000 tons. A near record output of paddy is also expected.
Wheat imports in marketing year 1997 (January/December) are expected to be about 485 000 tons, close to the high 1996 level, in response to a expanding demand. Maize imports should be about 60 000 tons.
Harvesting of the 1997 main cereal and potato crops is underway. Wheat output so far is lower than last year, but the bulk of the crop will be harvested from June. Overall production is expected to be above-average. Harvesting of the maize crop is well advanced and output is provisionally forecast at a near record. Particularly good outturns have been gathered in the northeastern region of Marañon, the department of San Martin, around Lima and Libertadores in the South. The output of paddy harvested so far has more than doubled that of the previous year which had been collected by this time and a bumper crop is anticipated. Prospects are also good for the potato crop and a bumper crop is expected.
Recent rains have helped keep soil moist for planting of the 1997/98 wheat crop starting from June. Early forecasts indicate that the area planted is likely to decline from last year but should nevertheless remain about average. Meanwhile, harvesting of the 1997 maize, sorghum and paddy crops has just been completed and smaller than average coarse grain outputs have been collected. By contrast, a near record paddy crop of 950 000 tons to 1 million tons has been gathered.
Planting of the 1997 maize crop is underway. The outlook is good and the area planted is expected to increase slightly from last year’s above-average 430 000 hectares, mainly in response to the steady growing demand from the animal feed industry. Harvesting of the 1997 sorghum crop continues and, by contrast, a significantly low output is forecast to be gathered, reflecting the strong cheap imports competition. Harvesting of the 1997 paddy crop is also underway and a bumper crop similar to last year’s is anticipated, reflecting steady exports to neighbouring countries. Satisfactory outputs are expected from potato, vegetables and other food crops currently being harvested.