In western Africa, the rainy season has started in the Sahel, beginning in late March/early April in Burkina Faso and becoming widespread over southern and central parts in late May. Rains began in April in the extreme south of Chad, Mali and Niger, in early May along the east of Guinea Bissau and south-east Senegal and in late May in eastern Gambia. By early June, rains covered most parts of Senegal, The Gambia and western Mali, and reached southern Mauritania, signaling an early start to the season in western parts of the Sahel. Land preparation and planting are underway. Seasonably dry conditions prevail in Cape Verde and north Mali, Niger and Chad. Grasshoppers are reported in Ouaddaï region of Chad. Moderate numbers of solitary Desert Locust adults and perhaps a few small groups will move west across West Africa over Chad and Niger if they find dry conditions en route. Favourable rainfall in coastal countries benefited the first maize crop. Planting of millet and sorghum is almost complete in northern parts. Crop prospects are unfavourable in Sierra Leone, following renewed fighting. The food supply situation and crop prospects have improved somewhat in Liberia following peace and rehabilitation programmes.

In central Africa, widespread rains in April/May favoured planting and development of the first maize crop in the Central African Republic and Cameroon. Main maize planting is underway in northern part of the Democratic Republic of Congo while the second crop is being harvested in central/southern parts.

In eastern Africa, the outlook for 1997 crops is mixed. In Ethiopia, a reduced secondary "belg" crop is anticipated in several areas. In Tanzania, where main season cereal crops are being harvested, output is also expected to be reduced due to late and insufficient rains. In Uganda, more rains are needed in central and southern parts for first season crops. In Rwanda and Burundi, where first season crops are about to be harvested, the outlook is favourable following good weather but output will remain below average reflecting insecurity and shortages of agricultural inputs. In Somalia, prospects for the main "Gu" crops are favourable reflecting good rains. In Kenya, late and irregular rains reduced area planted of main maize. In the Sudan, the 1997 wheat crop was above average reflecting good weather and larger plantings.

In southern Africa, harvesting of the 1997 coarse grain crop is almost complete in most areas. Output is estimated at about 17 million tons, about average but 12 percent lower than last year. In Angola, cereal production is estimated at 431 000 tons, 14 percent lower than 1996, due to below normal rainfall. In Mozambique, output is estimated at 1.4 million tons, about 10 percent above last year, due to increased plantings, higher yields and favourable weather. A good harvest is also expected in Namibia where average to above average rainfall was recorded in most parts. By constrast, in Botswana, Lesotho, Malawi, South Africa, Swaziland, Zambia and Zimbabwe, 1997 output is anticipated to be lower than last year’s bumper harvests as irregular rainfall reduced yields. The maize crop in South Africa is expected to be about 8.2 million tons, sharply below the 10 million tons in 1996. In Madagascar, the 1997 paddy crop is forecast at 2.6 million tons, slightly above last year; however, recent outbreaks of migratory locusts in southern parts pose a serious threat to crops. Prospects for the sub-region’s 1997 wheat crop are favourable, as abundant water is available in dams following a good rainy season.

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In Asia, harvesting of winter crops is mostly complete, whilst planting of main coarse grains and paddy has commenced. In China, rain in recent weeks maintained favourable conditions for summer crops and rice across most parts. Notwithstanding some damage by disease and drought in the north, a favourable wheat crop of some 110 million tons is anticipated this year. In India , where a normal monsoon is officially forecast, a wheat crop of around 64.7 million tons is expected this year, some 2 million tons above 1996. In Pakistan , early season dry weather in rainfed areas and a fall in fertilizer use is expected to result in a fall in wheat production to around 15.8 million tons, compared to the target of 18 million tons. Also in the Islamic Republic of Iran , drought caused extensive damage and wheat production is likely to fall to around 10.5 million tons this year, 4 percent below last year’s volume. In Indonesia, conditions for the harvest of main season rice in Java have been favourable and aggregate paddy production in 1997 is projected to increase to around 52 million tons, some 2 million tons above last year. In the Philippines, conditions are favourable for main season rice, whilst in Thailand, main season rice is being planted. In Vietnam, lower rainfall and hot temperatures may stress early development of Summer-Autumn rice.

In Central America and the Caribbean, planting of 1997 main season crops is complete in most countries. Maize area in Central American countries is provisionally estimated at a near record. Most of the increase was in Guatemala, Mexico and Nicaragua. In contrast, sorghum plantings are lower than last year but still above average. The decline is due to reduced plantings in Mexico caused by strong competition of low cost imports and fungus infestation. In the Caribbean, a long dry spell affected rainfed crops in Cuba, Dominican Republic and Haiti, where output is expected to be significantly reduced.

In South America, harvesting of the 1996/97 maize crop is almost complete in southern countries and a favourable output is expected. In Argentina and Brazil, record crops of 14.4 million tons and 36.8 million tons respectively are provisionally estimated. In Uruguay output was average whilst in Paraguay, a record crop of 1.1 million tons was harvested. In Chile, output is forecast to be poor due to drought. In Bolivia, Ecuador and Peru, harvesting of 1997 main season coarse grain crops is well advanced and record maize crops are expected. In Colombia, sowing of the 1997 maize and sorghum crops is underway. In Venezuela, above-average maize plantings are anticipated.

In Europe, prospects for 1997 cereal crops remain satisfactory. Total cereal production in the EC is forecast at 202 million tons, below last year’s record crop, but still well above average. Good rains over most of the EC since late April reduced fears of drought after very dry conditions earlier. However, Spain, Portugal and the southern tip of France are still reported to be experiencing drought conditions. In eastern parts, prospects are more favourable than last year. Production is forecast to increase in Bulgaria, Hungary and Romania, and remain similar to last year in other countries. In the Baltic states, conditions have been satisfactory and yield expectations for winter grains are satisfactory. In Lithuania planted area has increased sharply and output may exceed last year’s good level.

In the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), an upturn in 1997 output is expected from last year’s drought reduced levels, particularly in the Ukraine and Moldova. The area under winter grains declined by over 1 million hectares but favourable growing conditions are expected to result in better yields. Spring grain plantings are nearing completion and soil moisture reserves are adequate for crop development in most major producing areas. In Belarus and in the Ukraine the area sown was larger than last year and crops are reported to be in good condition. In the Russian Federation, a reduction of 1 million hectares in area sown to winter grains could be partly offset by better yields. Planting of spring grains is near completion and indications are that aggregate area sown could fall by about 5 percent to about 51 million hectares. In Kazakhstan, planted area has fallen by 10 percent and the 1997 harvest is unlikely to exceed output last year. Elsewhere, most smaller states have increased area under winter grains but in Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, irrigated area has declined and output is likely to remain close to last year’s levels.

In North America, prospects for the 1997 wheat crop in the United States remain good. Recent favourable weather benefited winter wheat and favoured planting and emergence of spring wheat. Official forecasts put 1997 wheat output at 62.7 million tons, marginally up on last year. Maize planting was mostly completed under favourable conditions and indications point to an increase of about 6 percent, in this year's crop. In Canada, planting of the major wheat and coarse grain crops is well advanced. Cereal area is expected to decrease significantly from last year due to rotation of land to oilseeds. 1997 wheat output is forecast at about 27 million tons, 12 percent below 1996, while coarse grains output is forecast 3 percent down at about 28 million tons.

In Oceania, prospects for 1997 winter grains in Australia are favourable. Planting is mostly complete with rains favouring early growth. Although the area of winter grains is estimated to be down from the previous year, it was above average. Crops were damaged by cyclones in Fiji, Papua New Guinea and Tonga.