A recent FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission has estimated the 1997 total cereal production at 3.66 million tons, comprising 2.71 million tons of wheat, 0.4 million tons of rice, 0.3 million tons of maize and 0.25 million tons of barley. This harvest is some 18 percent higher than the previous year’s and the largest crop since 1978, due to above average and well distributed rains in most areas. The 1997 cereal crops suffered relatively little pest damage and the harvest is being carried out in good weather conditions. However, there is some uncertainty about the likely amount of harvest in the eight northern provinces because of the civil strife which has isolated this area. Although large areas are reported to be planted, especially with rainfed wheat, and the growing conditions were favourable, the actual harvest could be delayed in some parts because of military activities and labour scarcity resulting from migration. These northern provinces together comprise 40 percent of Afghanistan’s irrigated cereal area and 53 percent of its rainfed area. Normally, it is a surplus region, but the movement of grain towards the populated centre is currently impeded by the front-line north of Kabul. This may lead to increased carryover stocks in the north and exports into the CIS, as well as shortages in the Kabul area, which, with its estimated population of 1.2 million, is almost completely dependent on imports from Pakistan. The eight northern provinces are forecast to produce 1.3 million tons of cereals from the current harvest, but if the intensity of military activities increases or the conflict widens over the next few months, harvesting could be interrupted and a reduction from this forecast is possible.

Despite the good 1997 harvest, import requirements are expected to be considerable. Given the rise in population, due partly to returnees, cereal imports in the 1997/98 marketing year are forecast at 710 000 tons, similar to last year. This implies some small build-up of wheat stocks, mainly in the north, and some exports, roughly estimated at 150 000 tons, from the northern provinces to the CIS countries. Most of the import requirements are expected to be met by commercial supplies of mainly wheat flour from Pakistan and the Islamic Republic of Iran. The imported supplies are mostly aimed at meeting urban demand.

The Mission has estimated the 1997/98 emergency food aid requirements at 170 000 tons, including 150 000 tons of cereals, similar to 1996/97. The WFP is the largest supplier providing 140 000 tons of food aid in 1997, followed by ICRC, with 25 000 tons, and a number of NGOs. Emergency food aid is required to meet the needs of the estimated 1.75 million vulnerable people during the 1997/98 marketing year.