Agricultural production continues to recover as a result of gradual normalization of the economic and marketing activities coupled with better availability and lower cost of inputs. The outlook for the 1997 wheat crop remains favourable and aggregate output could rise by 4 percent to 328 000 tons. This is entirely due to better yields in the SRPSKA republic while in BiH Federation, which has no comparative advantage in wheat production, production is expected to fall reflecting lower planting and yields. The area sown to maize is expected to increase sharply in both republics in response to the gradual recovery of the livestock industry and disruption of industrial activities. Provided normal weather conditions prevail, output of maize is forecast to rise sharply. Production of potatoes is also likely to continue its upwards trend.

The food security situation has improved but there remains a large structural deficit in wheat, the major staple. In 1997/98 the wheat import requirement is tentatively forecast at some 265 000 tons, mainly for the BiH Federation. This is 24 percent higher than in the previous year. The increase reflects the larger consumption needs following a 10 percent increase in the resident population and the lower forecast output in the BiH Federation which, together, have more than compensated the reduction in wheat consumption requirements per caput.

WFP is targeting 1.5 million people (war-affected people, including refugees and IDPs) with relief food distributions. WFP food needs for this population are 46 000 tons for the period 1 August-31 December 1997, of which the outstanding requirement is 21 000 tons with a value of U.S.$ 11 million.