Agricultural production continues to recover as a result of
gradual normalization of the economic and marketing
activities coupled with better availability and lower cost of
inputs. The outlook for the 1997 wheat crop remains
favourable and aggregate output could rise by 4 percent to
328 000 tons. This is entirely due to better yields in the
SRPSKA republic while in BiH Federation, which has no
comparative advantage in wheat production, production is
expected to fall reflecting lower planting and yields. The
area sown to maize is expected to increase sharply in both
republics in response to the gradual recovery of the
livestock industry and disruption of industrial activities.
Provided normal weather conditions prevail, output of maize
is forecast to rise sharply. Production of potatoes is also
likely to continue its upwards trend.
The food security situation has improved but there remains a
large structural deficit in wheat, the major staple. In
1997/98 the wheat import requirement is tentatively forecast
at some 265 000 tons, mainly for the BiH Federation. This is
24 percent higher than in the previous year. The increase
reflects the larger consumption needs following a 10 percent
increase in the resident population and the lower forecast
output in the BiH Federation which, together, have more than
compensated the reduction in wheat consumption requirements
per caput.
WFP is targeting 1.5 million people (war-affected people,
including refugees and IDPs) with relief food distributions.
WFP food needs for this population are 46 000 tons for the
period 1 August-31 December 1997, of which the outstanding
requirement is 21 000 tons with a value of U.S.$ 11 million.