Planting of the 1997/98 main cereal crop is complete. Growing conditions are good but outturn will largely depend upon the effects of “El Niño” whose impact is principally expected towards the end of the year. Maize output, mostly white, is provisionally forecast at an average 30 000 tons. Production of paddy is expected to be about 195 000 tons, close to last year's slightly above-average volume but still short from meeting domestic requirements.
Wheat imports in marketing year 1997/98 are forecast to be about 175 000 tons compared to 165 000 tons in the previous year. Maize imports (mostly yellow maize) are anticipated to be close to last year's relatively high receipts of 280 000 tons, in response to the steady demand from the animal feed industry. Rice imports in 1997 (January/December) should be about 50 000 tons, similar to 1996. Imports of beans, an important staple in the population diet, should be some 20 000 tons to help cover large production losses caused by adverse weather and help contain consumer prices which increased as a result of the shortage.
Harvesting of the 1997 first season maize crop is about to start following some interruption at planting caused by torrential rains. Provisional forecasts indicate that output should be about 90 000 tons which compares to last year's slightly above-average 85 000 tons. By contrast, paddy production should be again a low 100 000 tons reflecting the continuing government difficulties in financing the import of farm inputs. Satisfactory outputs of vegetables and roots have been so far obtained.
Sugar cane production, a major foreign exchange earner, is expected to decline from last year's 4.45 million tons to about 4.2 million tons, mostly the result of the continuing shortage of agricultural inputs.
Wheat imports in marketing year 1997/98 (July/June) are forecast to be similar to last year's receipts of 650 000 tons. Maize imports should increase slightly to about 255 000 tons. Paddy imports in 1997 are expected to be between 375 000 and 400 000 tons in order to help meet the steady domestic demand.
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC (20 August)
Growing conditions have deteriorated for the 1997 first season rainfed maize and sorghum crops, as well as that of the secondary irrigated paddy crop and other minor foodcrops, as a result of insufficient precipitation in July. Field work has stopped in several areas and price speculation on some basic food items is reported. Harvesting is about to start and coarse grain outputs should decline from last year but would nevertheless remain about average. Harvesting of the main irrigated paddy crop has been completed and an above- average 540 000 to 560 000 tons is provisionally estimated for both crops.
Wheat imports in marketing year 1997 (January/December) are expected to be about 265 000 tons, slightly above the previous year receipts. Maize imports are forecast to increase from 675 000 tons to about 690 000 tons, reflecting the improved demand from the poultry sector which had undergone a period of limited constraint. Rice imports should be a relatively high 40 000 tons, despite the bumper crop collected. This is mainly the result of government's decision to cope with eventual stockpiling and price speculation, similar to that experienced during the dry spell in the first half of the year.
Unseasonable dry weather since end-June has negatively affected the developing first season crops, particularly in the extreme southeastern region, which includes the provinces of Morazán, San Miguel, Usultán and La Uniòn. In view of the anticipated impact of “El Niño” in the next few months, a series of measures are being contemplated by the Government to help mitigate its possible effects. Eventual problems of drought may result and the reinforcement of current reserves of maize, beans and rice, is being planned, as well as other contingency strategies, in the provinces to be most likely affected. As a consequence of the damage incurred to the first season maize crop, production of maize is presently forecast at about 540 000 tons compared to last year's 630 000 tons and a 5-year average of 619 000 tons. The outlook is uncertain for the sorghum and paddy crops, as well as for the bean crop.
Wheat imports in marketing year 1997/98 (August/July) should increase from the previous year's 195 000 tons to about 205 000 tons. Maize imports should increase from last year’s 185 000 tons to 300 000 tons to help cover the deficit in production. Rice imports in marketing year 1997 (January/December) should be about 205 000 tons, close to 1996.
Insufficient precipitation in the southwest, southeast and central parts of the country since end-June, allegedly caused by the early effects of the “El Niño”, has negatively affected the 1997 first season crops, currently in the ground. A detailed assessment of damage has not yet been made. The output of maize, the main cereal, is expected to decrease from last year’s 1.1 million tons to a below- average 1 million tons as a result of damage incurred. Production of sorghum is expected to remain close to a below- average 47 000 tons. The paddy crop is anticipated to be slightly below-average.
Wheat imports in marketing year 1997/98 (July/June) are expected to decrease slightly from the previous year receipts of 280 000 tons. Maize imports are forecast to increase from 290 000 tons to 380 000 tons, reflecting the growing domestic demand and the need to cover the loss in production. Rice imports in 1997 (January/December) should remain close to 1996 receipts of 35 000 tons.
Harvesting of the 1997 first season coarse grain, paddy and bean crops is still underway in some parts of the country. Planting was significantly delayed because of the long drought which affected the country, particularly in the northwest, as well as the Central Plateau and parts of the north east and Grand’Anse in the south west, for most of the first half of the year. The outlook is poor and early predictions indicate that maize output is likely to decline from last year’s average 210 000 tons to about 130 000 tons. Paddy production should decline to some 55 000 to 60 000 tons from about 80 000 tons collected in 1996. The bean crop is forecast to be about 45 000 tons.
Harvesting of the 1997/98 first season maize and bean crops is about to start. The early arrival of the dry warm period, called “la canicula”, is attributed to “El Niño” and has had some negative effect on the developing grain crops and pastures in some areas of the south. Important localized crop losses are reported in the depressed Choluteca and Valle regions, and the zones around Francisco Morazán, El Paraíso and La Paz. A detailed assessment of the losses incurred had not yet been made. The government has initiated a series of measures to cope with the impact of the phenomenon, among them the coordinated effort with the private industry for the construction of wells and water reservoirs. Production of maize, the main cereal, is forecast so far to remain close to last year’s low output.
Wheat imports in marketing year 1997/98 (July/June) should increase from 175 000 tons in the previous year to about 195 000 tons, largely in line with population growth. Maize imports are also expected to increase from the relatively high level of 145 000 tons to 175 000 tons, reflecting the steady domestic demand and the need to cover production losses. Rice imports in 1997 (January/December) should be about 46 000 tons compared to 32 000 tons in 1996. This is partly attributed to the increasing preference for higher quality rice.
Weather conditions continue favouring planting and development of the 1997 maize crop across the main growing regions of the southern plateau and eastern belt, while below- normal rains are reported in the western belt. Overall prospects are good and a near record 8.1 million hectares of maize are expected to be sown, in response to an anticipated strong expansion in domestic demand largely caused by a generally improved national economy. Early production forecasts point out to a bumper crop provided normal weather persists. Significant production increases are expected in some particular states, such as Sinaloa, where more than 2 million tons of maize should be produced. Sowing of the 1997 spring/summer sorghum crop has started. By contrast, plantings are expected to decline from last year's record 1.6 million hectares to some 1.4 million hectares, principally as a consequence of unattractive prices caused by a strong import competition. Sorghum imports are anticipated to be about 2 million tons, close to the high level of receipts of the previous year.
The short dry summer period known as “la canicula” has started with some anticipation, negatively affecting the recently planted 1997/98 first season cereal and bean crops. The phenomenon is allegedly attributed to “El Niño”. A detailed assessment of damage has not yet been made, but maize production should decrease from last year's above- average 333 000 tons to about 280 000 to 300 000 tons. The outlook is uncertain for the sorghum crop, while a below- average paddy output is expected.
Wheat imports in marketing year 1997/98 (July/June) are forecast to increase from last year's receipts of 110 000 tons to about 120 000 tons. Maize imports should increase from 25 000 tons to some 90 000 tons, reflecting the strong domestic demand and the need to cover crop losses. Rice imports in 1997 (January/December) should remain similar to 1996 receipts of 41 000 tons, despite large carryover stocks.