A recent FAO/WFP Mission found that the second season crops, which in 1996 accounted for 36 percent of the aggregate food production, benefited from improved security, increased supply of fertilizers and better weather conditions compared to the same season last year. However, the amount of quality seeds distributed were not sufficient and no pesticides were available. The Mission estimates the 1997 B season food crop production at about 1.7 million tons some 4 percent over the same season last year. The cereal production is estimated at 138 000 tons, that of pulses at 185 854 tons, roots/tubers at 714 039 tons and bananas at 662 512 tons Total food production in 1997, including the A season crop harvested earlier in February, is estimated at 3.5 million tons. The cereal harvest increased by an estimated 10 percent while that of roots and tubers rose only marginally. By contrast, the output of pulses dropped by 4 percent while that of bananas and plantains decreased slightly. As a consequence total production is about the same as in 1996, thus resulting in increased import requirements.
Food import requirements in 1997 are estimated at 20 000 tons of cereals and 56 000 tons of pulses. Commercial imports of cereals and pulses are currently forecast at 3 000 tons and 12 000 tons, respectively. Food aid needs are estimated at 17 000 tons of cereals and 44 000 tons of pulses. Available estimates put the country�s population at 5 980 000. Of these, some 11 percent are considered displaced persons living outside their homes, mainly in camps. A large number of them have limited access to land to carry out agricultural production activities. This situation calls for the continuation of food assistance support until these affected people become self reliant.
Prospects for the 1997 main season cereal crops to be harvested from November are favourable, reflecting good cumulative rains since June in most agricultural areas. Prices of cereals, which have remained stable in the past months started to increase in June. An FAO Mission which visited the country last December estimated cereal production one-third below average and food aid requirements in 1997 at 289 000 tons of cereals. However, pledges by the end of June amounted to only 29 000 tons. Food security in the country remains highly precarious.
This year�s �belg� season (February-May), started later than normal. This delayed plantings and resulted in a sharply reduced planted area. Official sources indicate that actual plantings are unlikely to have reached one-third of the planned targets in the belg crop producing zones of North Shewa, Southern Tigray, North and South Wollo. Rains in April were irregular, and below-normal in both amount and distribution. Weather conditions were also poor in the first week of May and as a consequence crops were severely stressed, resulting in a substantial drop in production from last year�s record output. The crops most affected are sorghum in East Shewa and Tigray, wheat and barley in South Wollo, North Shewa, and parts of Arsi.
The planting of the main 1997 �meher� season crops is completed and a good harvest could be achieved if weather conditions over the coming months turn out to be favourable. Availability of agricultural inputs is reported to be satisfactory but the area planted may decline from last year�s level due to farmers� response to prices of cereals which at planting time were lower than their levels of a year ago. It is too early to have an indication about the size of this year�s harvest, but is unlikely to reach last year�s record outturn.
The food situation at the national level remains generally satisfactory, reflecting mainly the record cereal harvest of last year. Consumer prices are generally stable, but there is a difficult food situation in several areas, notably in the pastoral areas in the eastern and southern parts of the country. In the northern part of the Amhara region, some 1.4 million persons are reported to be in need of food aid. The total number of persons needing food assistance is now estimated by the Government at about 3.4 million. This is sharply higher than the 1.9 million estimated previously and reflects mainly the inclusion of drought-affected population in the pastoral areas of the Somali Region, Bale and Borena of Oromyia, and parts of Southern Region.
The long rains season maize crop, currently nearing maturity, benefited from above-normal rains in late March and April. These rains counteracted somewhat the adverse impact on yields of delayed plantings due to the late start of the season. Dry conditions in May again affected yield prospects except in some areas near Lake Victoria which received good rains in late June. While an average maize crop is anticipated, the output of wheat is expected to increase, reflecting above-average plantings and satisfactory weather conditions. Aggregate production of cereals, including the already harvested short-rains crops, mostly coarse grains, could exceed last year�s harvest but will be well below the 1994 record. Plantings of beans and Irish potatoes have been reduced. Overall, the food supply situation remains tight and this is reflected in increased food prices. The distribution of food aid by WFP and some NGOs continues in pastoral and marginal agriculture areas affected by a succession of drought years. This has somewhat eased the difficult food situation.
The 1997 second season food crops are generally in good condition and ready for harvest. Rains during the growing season have been generally adequate and a larger area than last year was planted, mainly due to the massive return of refugees. There are, however, some areas where rains were excessive and had adverse effect on crops, especially in the prefecture of Butare where a considerable crop loss is certain. According to the findings of an FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission which visited the country in June, the area planted to the 1997 B season crops is larger than at the same time last year. However, the assessment further reveals that plantings were still below pre-crisis levels because of a variety of factors restricting cultivation. These include the late arrival and settlement in their communes of a large part of refugees, land disputes between returnees and current farm occupants, and lack of inputs. The mission�s estimate of 1997 B season total food production is 1.941 million tons, the bulk of which is bananas and roots/tubers. Compared to last year, the total food output from season B is some 6 percent higher. The cereal harvest, estimated at about 128 000 tons, exceeds last season�s outturn by 17 percent but well below from the pre- crisis level of 1990. By contrast, the production of roots and tubers declined slightly but that of pulses was sharply reduced because of excessive rains. As pulses constitute the main source of protein in the diet of the population and harvest from season A had also been poor, the situation could become alarming.
Overall, the food situation can be considered to be better than last year as harvests from both A and B seasons are larger than in 1996. Aggregate food production for 1997 is estimated at 3.8 million tons, about 7 percent higher than last year but down from the average of pre-crisis. Reflecting below-average food production, the food supply situation remains precarious in several areas. For those relying on purchases for part or all of their consumption requirements, access to food has become exceedingly difficult. As a result, the need for food assistance remains strong. The Mission estimated food aid requirements for cereals and pulses at 31 000 tons and 103 000 tons, respectively. The Mission also recommended that donors provide further assistance in the form of seeds, farming tools and other inputs to ensure that next year's planting of food crops will not be hampered.
A recent FAO/WFP Mission to the country found that the 1997 �Gu� season started early in most parts of Somalia, being favourable for rainfed crop establishment. The main sorghum and maize producing areas, located in the south, received above average rains at the beginning of the season (late March - April), but declined to below-normal levels in May - to pick up again in June and early July. Cropped area declined by 6 percent over last year�s �Gu� season, to 423 000 hectares; this is still 17 percent below the pre- strife average (1982-88) of 512 000 hectares. Yields remained at low levels due to moisture stress at the critical point of moisture requirements and uncontrolled pests and diseases as well as lack of inputs, particularly fertilizers and high- yielding seeds.
Total sorghum and maize production of the �Gu� season in 1997 is forecast at 241 000 tons, similar to last year�s level of 242 000 tons. Of this estimated total, 123 000 tons account for sorghum and 118 000 tons for maize. Comparing the current �Gu� season with that of 1996, there are considerable variations in regional performance. Significant improvements, generally both for sorghum and maize, have been achieved in Lower and Middle Shabelle, Lower and Middle Juba, Gedo and Hiran, although, in some cases, there are great differences between districts. Major declines in production are anticipated for Bay and Bakool regions; production is also expected to be lower in the North-west region, where harvesting will take place in October. Five districts are particularly at risk of food shortage and will need special assistance: two in Bay region (Baidoa and Bur Hakaba), two in Bakool region (Xuddur and Tieglow) and one in Hiran (Bulo Burti). An assessment of the number of people mostly affected by serious food shortages and with limited coping alternatives in these districts was not yet completed at the time of the Mission.
Countrywide, the picture of access to food, as influenced by market prices, varies considerably by commodity and region. Retail prices for sorghum and maize, which had sharply increased over the past year, declined with the harvest, but started to rise again in the first week of August. Overall, local quality goat and cattle prices declined significantly.
Assuming a normal 1997/98 �Der� season production of 95 000 tons of sorghum and maize (to be harvested in January- February 1998), the total cereal deficit for the marketing year August 1997/July 1998 is estimated at 247 000 tons, of which 215 000 tons are forecast to be imported commercially. This would leave a cereal food aid requirement of 32 000 tons. WFP�s current food aid planning for Somalia over the next 12 months envisages the provision of some 14 000 tons of cereals. The European Union�s intention to monetize 9 000 tons of cereals through local traders in Ethiopia�s Region 5, adjacent to Somalia�s severe deficit areas, is expected to have a spill-over effect in the latter country. Since prospective food aid from other sources will be minimal, a considerable uncovered food aid gap will remain and the consequences of a deteriorating food supply position will emerge later in the marketing year, unless appropriate remedial actions are immediately taken. The distribution of food continues to be hampered by security problems.
FAO�s estimate of the recently harvested wheat crop, based on the findings of an FAO Crop Assessment Mission in April 1997, remains at 650 000 tons. This is an above-average harvest second only to the record output in 1991/92 and some 23 percent higher than last year. The increase reflects generally favourable growing conditions and a larger planted area due to farmers� response to supportive Government policy and expectations of higher prices. The area planted to wheat increased by 7 percent to 334 000 hectares. The estimate of sorghum production in 1996 is currently put at 4.2 million tons, slightly higher than previous forecasts.
The overall food situation has so far been generally satisfactory. However, the food supply situation in some provinces remains highly precarious. An aggregate deficit of around 600 000 tons of cereals is estimated for six states in Darfur and Kordofan, Red Sea State and the South. While some of the deficits may be met through normal internal trade, prospects for an easy flow of supplies are not good, especially in North Kordofan and North Darfur. In those areas where accessibility poses the greatest problem, a large number of people are bound to experience hardships. The situation is worse in the southern states where economic activity has been adversely affected by many years of civil war. In this part of the country, some 2.6 million war- affected and displaced persons need emergency food aid estimated at 52 176 tons, of which cereals would account for 39 000 tons. In May FAO and WFP jointly approved an emergency operation to provide emergency food assistance to 2.3 million war and drought affected population.
Harvesting of the 1997 main season �long rains� crop in the unimodal areas of the south and the centre is virtually completed, while that of the �Masika� crops in the bi-modal rainfall areas of the north is well advanced. The output of the �long rains� season, where the bulk of the maize crop is produced, is estimated below normal as a result of a late start of the rainy season, as well as irregular and insufficient precipitation, particularly in central areas. Extensive replanting with short term varieties in these areas did not sufficiently offset the negative impact of the dry weather. By contrast, prospects for the �Masika� crops are generally good, reflecting adequate weather conditions during the season, except in the Lake Victoria basin, where the harvest is anticipated to be poor. The �Vuli� crops, harvested until February in the bi-modal rainfall areas were sharply reduced by prolonged dry weather.
Latest official estimates indicate a 1997 aggregate production of cereals of some 3 million tons, significantly lower than last year�s output. Given this reduced production, there will be a substantial shortfall, currently forecast at 850 000 tons. In addition to substitution with non-cereals foodcrops, much of the deficit is expected to be covered by commercial imports. However, food aid assistance will be required for some 3.6 million people, mainly in the regions of Mara, Shinyanga, Arusha, Dodoma and Tabora, where the crops were reduced and serious food shortages are developing. Prices of maize, rice, sorghum and cassava are currently twice their level of a year ago. The situation of some 400 000 refugees from Burundi and the Democratic Republic of Congo remains a big concern.
The harvesting of the second season crops is proceeding and production is expected to be lower than last year. Except in a few districts, growing conditions have generally been unfavourable and plantings in the northern part have been adversely affected by insecurity. Given the poor harvest from the first season crops due to erratic rains in some areas and dry weather and/or floods in others, aggregate cereal production is forecast at 1.643 million tons. Rains were late in the eastern, southern and western districts. The outputs of pulses and plantains are also forecast to decline. Only production of root crops is expected to show a marginal increase, but the widespread infestation of Cassava Mosaic Virus poses a serious problem.
Domestic prices have declined in recent weeks despite the expected fall in production. The decline, however, is unlikely to be sustained as prices may be reacting only temporarily to the arrival on the market of new supplies from the new second season crop, now being harvested and supplies arriving from across the border with Kenya. The decline in bean prices is particularly significant. Beans are now offered at around Shs. 700 per kilo compared to Shs. 1300 in March. However, the overall food supply situation will remain tight as the expected increase in food production will not be adequate to cover consumption requirements in several areas. An estimated 612 000 persons who were adversely affected by drought/flood, face food shortages as they are unlikely to harvest sufficient quantities of food during the second season of this year. Moreover, the situation remains serious for some 150 000 internally displaced persons in several northern districts due to civil strife.