COMMONWEALTH OF INDEPENDENT STATES
Severe localized rain and hail storms in June caused significant damage to infrastructure and some damage to crops.
In 1996 a further 16 000 hectares of land was leased by the state to farmers. In response to good price incentives (the price of imported wheat has fluctuated at around U.S.$ 220- 260 per ton throughout the year), and more development assistance to the agricultural sector, (including short term production credit), the area sown to grains for harvest in 1997 expanded by 9 percent to 201 000 hectares. That sown to winter grains, mainly wheat, rose to 104 000 hectares and spring grain plantings also increased. However, poor weather in the early spring and localized crop damage in the summer are expected to result in lower yields than in 1996. Official expectations are that the 1997 harvest of cereals and pulses may not equal the good 1996 harvest of 328 000 tons.
The wheat/bread distribution chain has been (largely) privatized. The Government has retained control over a number of flour mills and subsidized bread (U.S.$ 0.36 per kg, three- quarters of the market price) is available for eligible populations at state outlets. In 1997/98 the domestic cereal utilization is estimated at about 635 000 tons, including 440 000 tons for direct human consumption and the balance for seed, feed and other uses. Provided the 1997 cereal harvest approaches 295 000 tons, the cereal import requirement is estimated at 340 000 tons. The commercial import capacity has increased following price liberalization and the need for programme food aid has diminished. In 1997/98 the food aid requirement could fall to 60 000 tons, compared to 105 000 tons delivered in 1996/97. Against this requirement 39 000 tons have already been pledged.
After falling very steeply in 1991-1993, GDP has grown slowly but steadily since 1994. Not all people have benefited from the reform process, least of all those populations living in temporary accommodation since the 1988 earthquake, single- parent households and other vulnerable groups including elderly pensioners, refugees and individuals living in state institutions. The Government estimates that 400 000 people (out of a resident population of about 3 million) remain vulnerable. However, the outstanding humanitarian needs are no longer considered to constitute an emergency situation.
Some 300 000 people continue to be in need of ongoing targeted food assistance. Of these WFP is targeting 220 000 vulnerable persons, including refugees and IDPs, with supplementary rations of basic food commodities as part of the on-going relief aid and Food-For-Work programme. WFP requirements to mid-1998 are 20 000 tons and the uncovered balance stands at 16 500 tons, valued at approximately U.S.$ 7.7 million. As the pipeline for relief food is only secure until September, donors are urgently requested for additional support.
The country has requested international donor assistance to combat the effect of floods in July which caused loss of life, destroyed 7 000 homes and did substantial damage to infrastructure, including the power grid, roads and bridges and crops. The government has estimated that as a result of the floods, crops were partially or totally damaged on 15 percent of the grain area and 1 percent of the cotton area. Other crops have also suffered damage. In addition, average crop yields are expected to remain low due to shortages of improved seed, machinery and spare parts, little fertilizer application and the deterioration of the irrigation infrastructure. Other disincentives to production include the slow pace of land privatization and the irregular payment of the members of the state farms. Nevertheless, the area sown to cereals for harvest in 1997 increased by 80 000 hectares or 13 percent. By 8 August, 1 million tons of wheat and barley had been harvested, 33 000 tons more than at the corresponding time last year. Indications are that output may be somewhat larger than last year when official data indicate that almost 1 million tons were harvested and actual production was about 10 percent higher than officially registered as output from state farm land is diverted for private use.
Privatization of the State Bread Corporation and liberalization of the wheat/bread production and distribution has led to a sharp increase in commercial imports of cereals by the private trade. In the first four months of 1997 commercial imports of flour have doubled in respect of the same period in 1996. In this period, some 123 000 tons were imported commercially, by the private trade, in addition to about 75 000 tons of wheat. In 1997/98 the cereal import requirement is estimated at less than 535 000 tons of cereals, mainly wheat. The bulk of this will be imported commercially but the vulnerable populations will continue to require targeted relief.
At present, WFP assists 155 000 persons, mainly internally displaced people accommodated in public buildings and camps, with supplementary food rations. The WFP relief food pipeline is covered until early 1998 and WFP�s outstanding needs to mid 1998 are 5,000 tons of food valued at U.S. $ 2.7 million.
The outlook for the 1997 grain (cereal and pulse) harvest has deteriorated somewhat but remain overall satisfactory. Heavy rains and high winds in June have caused loss of life, considerable damage to infrastructure and localized damage to crops on 70 000 hectares. On the positive side, the area sown to winter and spring grains has increased marginally. Growing conditions until late June have been mostly beneficial with rainy weather providing good moisture reserves for spring crop development but drier weather is now urgently needed to facilitate the harvest. The availability of fertilizer and other agro-chemicals, although better than last year, continues to constrain yields. On the negative side, harvesting losses could increase this year as grain has been flattened and the availability of operational harvesting machinery remains a major constraint. Until further information becomes available, FAO continues to forecast the 1997 grain harvest at about 6.3 million tons, compared to 6 million tons last year.
A bumper cereal harvest is expected, despite some crop damage by heavy rains in June. The availability of seed, fertilizer and micro-credit for producers has improved this year and liberalization of the grain/bread production and distribution chain have provided good incentives to increase production. Official information on the areas sown (and cereal production in 1996) is very conflicting but there is agreement that the area sown to wheat has increased sharply. Relative prices have encouraged farmers to plant wheat at the expense of fruit and vines. The area ploughed in the winter for sowing to grain increased by at least 50 000 hectares and growing conditions for winter crops have been significantly better than last year. Early official forecasts indicate that the 1997 harvest of winter grains (mainly wheat) reached 400 000 tons, largely surpassing last year�s record of 177 000 tons. Output of maize is also expected to increase.
The 1997 wheat harvest is expected to cover over 50 percent of domestic demand, pointing to a sharp reduction in imports of cereals in 1997/98. Food aid pledges for 1997/98 amount to just over 100 000 tons and the balance, estimated at 300 000 tons, is expected to be imported commercially.
GDP and agricultural production is recovering, after very sharp falls in the early nineties, but the processing infrastructure remains a major bottleneck to expansion. Unemployment remains high and there continues to be a need for food aid for targeted distribution to the most vulnerable populations, including refugees and internally displaced. WFP's target group for relief assistance has been reduced from 300 000 to 120 000 beneficiaries, with a further 50 000 people expected to benefit from Food-for-Work activities. WFP's food pipeline is only secured until mid-October and an additional 12 000 tons (approximately U.S.$ 5.3 million) will be needed to permit a continuation of food distributions to mid-1998.
The harvest outlook is unclear largely due to a shortage of credit. Recently privatized farms are unable to obtain credit from banks and government directives to the oil industry to supply farmers with fuel on credit are being challenged. As a result the spring crop area declined to 14.5 million hectares. The aggregate area sown to grains and pulses for harvest in 1997 has fallen by 1.6 million hectares to 15.5 million hectares and is well short of the targeted 17 million hectares. The area sown to wheat fell to 11.4 million hectares from 12.2 million in 1996. Yield expectations for the minor winter wheat crops are satisfactory and spring crops have, on the whole, benefited from timely rains. The outcome of spring plantings will depend crucially on weather in the months to come but also on the timely availability of fuel and machinery for harvesting. Even with better weather and yields than last year, the grain production target of 14 million tons may not be met in view of the reduced areas sown and the financial problems on many farms. Current indications point to a cereal harvest close to last year�s 12.5 million tons estimated by FAO.
The 1996 grain harvest is officially reported to be 11.6 million tons but is unofficially estimated to be up to 3 million tons higher, as farmers seek to maximize earnings in cash or kind. The country is estimated to have exported about 3 million tons of cereals in 1996/97 and is expected to remain an exporter also in the coming year.
Harvesting of the winter wheat crop is underway and another good harvest, larger than last year�s 1.4 million tons, is expected. The area sown to winter grain increased by 14 percent to 370 000 hectares and growing conditions have been mostly satisfactory this year even if shortages of inputs and credits, and inadequate crop rotation are likely to keep yields below potential on small farms.
The overall food supply situation is satisfactory but living standards have fallen sharply since 1991. Although the economy is beginning to recover from the transition shocks, poverty remains widespread due to under-employment and low incomes. The country has become self sufficient in cereals.
Growing conditions have favoured the 1997 crops but drier weather is now needed to bring in the winter wheat harvest. The 1997 cereal and pulse harvest is expected to be markedly better than last year�s drought reduced level of 1.8 million tons. However, farm indebtedness limits the resources which can be allocated to inputs and the production target of 2.9 million tons from 850 000 hectares may not be achieved. The late spring and shortages of liquidity and fuel delayed winter grain plantings, likely reducing the area sown but yields are expected to be markedly better than last year. The spring maize crop has benefited from good moisture conditions. FAO provisionally estimates the 1997 grain harvest at about 2.5 million tons
Early harvest returns point to a larger grain harvest than in 1996 but harvest progress is being impeded by persistent rains and fuel shortages. The condition of the standing crop is good and official forecasts for the harvest range from 70 to 80 million tons. However, the final result will depend crucially on weather conditions until the completion of the harvest, the availability of fuel and operational machinery and the timeliness of the harvesting activities. Although farm credit has been extremely limited this year, most farms have managed to plant grains, at the expense of other, less remunerative crops. Additional credit is to be made available via the commercial banking system to facilitate the harvesting operations. However, over 70 percent of farms are indebted and some may not be eligible for this credit. In addition, a number of powerful industries are reported to be investing in agricultural production to ensure food supplies for employees or for barter transactions.
The aggregate area sown to crops decreased by 4 percent to 95.7 million hectares but that sown to grains fell by only 0.4 million hectares or 1 percent in response to remunerative prices and good demand for foodgrains. The area sown to wheat remained stable at 25.7 million hectares while that sown to feedgrains continued to decline in response to further reductions in animal inventories and poor demand for feedgrains despite the small harvest last year. Growing conditions have been good this year in most major producing areas although crops in Eastern Siberia and Altay Krai have suffered some moisture stress and yields here are expected to be less than last year. Application of fertilizer and pesticides have increased, but remain low. Although soil exhaustion after successive years of inadequate fertilization and shortages of liquidity are expected to keep yields low, early harvest returns point to a crop which could be significantly larger and of better quality than that harvested last year. The 1996 harvest is officially estimated at only 69.3 million tons but was probably at least 10 percent higher. Barring persistent rains during the harvest period and reflecting good yield expectations, FAO�s forecast of the 1997 cereal and pulse harvest is 77 million tons, about 1 million tons larger than estimated output in 1996. Production of wheat is forecast to rise to 40 million tons from 38.5 million tons last year, in response to better yield expectations for both winter and spring crops. Production of coarse grains could be slightly higher than last year�s level of 34 million tons, as better yields offset the reduction in the area sown. Paddy production, under pressure from cheaper imports, is expected to decline further to 340 000 tons and output of pulses could rise to around 2 million tons in response to better yields. However, the final result will depend crucially on weather conditions until the completion of the harvest.
Demand for cereals has fallen sharply in recent years due to a sharp reduction in animal numbers, increased use of grass fodder and increased imports of livestock products in lieu of feedgrains. In 1996/97, net cereal imports are estimated to have declined to about 1.3 million tons, mainly wheat and barley sourced from Kazakhstan and the Ukraine. In 1997/98 cereal trade is not expected to be larger.
WFP is completing the provision of supplementary food assistance to some 90 000 displaced persons in areas surrounding Chechnya. WFP operations will be phased out by September 1997.
A very good harvest is expected this year in response to increased areas sown to wheat, good growing conditions and somewhat better availability of inputs provided through assistance programmes. The harvest is underway. Reflecting very varied farming conditions, the yield of winter wheat on farms supplied with inputs, range from 5 tons per hectare on good irrigated land and 0.9 tons per hectare on saline, poor soils. Given that an increasing amount of irrigated land is being diverted from cotton to wheat, and that the aggregate area sown to grain crops is estimated to have risen, the 1997 grain harvest is tentatively forecast at 600 000 tons, compared to 400 000 tons last year.
Provided this harvest forecast materializes, the cereal import requirement in 1997/98 could fall to about 250 000 tons. Against this requirement, 35 000 tons of programme food aid have already been pledged. In addition the country will need humanitarian food aid for targeted distribution to vulnerable populations, and this requirement is expected to remain substantial in view of the rampant poverty after years of economic decline and intermittent civil strife.
Some 705 000 particularly vulnerable people continue to need targeted humanitarian assistance. These include populations displaced as a result of civil strife, elderly pensioners, war-widows with children, large single-parent families, orphans and the disabled/invalids. WFP provides emergency assistance to 485 000 vulnerable persons while other agencies assist 220 000. Some 15 000 persons also received WFP assistance under food-for-work programmes. WFP estimates that overall 1997 relief food requirement are 46 580 tons, valued at some U.S.$ 22 million, of which WFP would provide about 29 000 tons with a value of U.S.$ 16 million. The remaining quantities are expected to be provided by NGOs under their existing programmes. WFP will continue to coordinate activities with these organizations to ensure that there is no overlap and to maximize coverage of the affected population.
The winter grain harvest (mainly wheat and some barley) is nearing completion and output is officially reported to be 640 000 tons. This is substantially larger than last year�s poor output of 400 000 tons in response to a reduction in the marginally-irrigated areas sown to wheat and higher (if still unremunerative) farm prices. The minor spring crop (maize and rice) could bring aggregate output up to about 750 000 tons, but nevertheless this remains well below average. Ambitious targets to achieve self sufficiency in cereals are proving unrealistic given the shortage of arable land, the shortage of fertilizers and inputs, the low producer prices which, coupled with poor cultivation techniques and low yields, offer poor incentives to farmers to tend the crop. The country has adopted very gradualist approach to the reform process and only in December of 1996 (well after the winter grain planting season) some provisions were made to encourage private farmers, and the procurement price was raised to almost U.S.$ 80 per ton.
The country is well endowed with natural gas and the wheat deficit is expected to be covered by commercial imports. In 1996/97 the country has likely imported about 500 000 tons of cereals. In 1997/98 the domestic utilization of cereals is estimated at about 1.1 million tons of cereals including 650 000 tons for direct human consumption. Given a cereal harvest of about 735 000 tons (with rice in milled equivalent) the cereal import requirement in 1997/98 is estimated at around 360 000 tons, mainly wheat. Feed use of grains has come under pressure following last year�s very poor harvest and animal numbers are reported to be falling sharply.
Current crop condition and early harvest returns substantiate official forecasts of a markedly better 1997 grain harvest. Latest reports indicate that the area sown to grains has increased sharply, to 15.3 million hectares (1996: 13.2 million hectares) and, barring poor weather during the harvest, most of this area is expected to be harvested. Some 11.2 million hectares have been sown on the reorganized state farms and the balance in the private sector. Growing conditions have been good this year, with adequate moisture for both winter and spring crops in most areas. Only 650 000 hectares of the winter crop area of 7.5 million hectares needed to be resown, and 90 percent of winter grains are maturing in good or satisfactory condition. The spring grains are also developing well: 80 percent are in good condition. As a result, average crop yields are expected to be markedly better than last year and the 1997 grain (cereal and pulse) harvest is provisionally forecast to be of the order of 35-37 million tons. Output of wheat could increase to 19-20 million tons, (from an estimated 15 million tons in 1996) also reflecting the 1.2 million hectare increase in the area sown. Both the area and yield of coarse grains are expected to increase and output could approach 14-15 million tons, (1996: 10 million tons) depending on the proportion of the maize area which will be harvested for grain rather than as silage. Production of paddy and pulses is also expected to recover.
These estimates remain provisional and may have to be lowered if rains and inadequate availability of machinery, fuel and spare parts interfere with the harvesting.
Despite the disappointing harvest in 1996 and restrictions on the movement of grain after the harvest, some informed sources indicate that up to 2.6 million tons of cereals may have been exported to other CIS states or abroad (Poland). Provided the harvest forecast materializes, the cereal supply situation in 1997/98 is expected to ease considerably, pointing to a stock replenishment after last year�s drawdown, larger exports, and increased availability of animal feed.
The government has passed a law introducing import quotas and duties on agricultural produce including grains and livestock products. Import quotas may not exceed 10 percent of domestic production in the preceding year.
Despite a reduction in the irrigated area sown to grains and earlier reports of poor autumn growing conditions for rainfed winter grains, preliminary harvest reports indicate that average yields have improved. Latest official reports indicate that 1.49 million hectares were sown to these grains and that the average (bunkerweight) yield from the 1.1 million hectares harvested to date is 2.4 tons per hectare, 9 percent more than last year. Depending on the proportion of irrigated and non-irrigated land that has been harvested, current indications are that the 1997 wheat and barley output could be of the order of 3.0 -3.3 million tons and the total harvest (including spring planted maize and rice) of the order of 3.5-3.7 million tons compared to an estimated 3.4 million tons in 1996.
The country needs about 5 million tons of cereal per annum to cover the domestic cereal consumption requirement and the shortfall of 1.5 million tons is expected to be imported commercially. The controlled price of bread was increased by 42 percent to soum 20, (US $ 0.31) per 600 gram loaf in July.
Latest indications continue to point to another above-average cereal output in the Community in 1997 although the quality of many crops may be poorer than normal. FAO's latest forecast puts the EC's 1997 cereal crop as 202 million tons, down from the record crop of 208 million tons last year but still well above the average of the past 5 years. Overall plantings are estimated to have risen by about 2 percent but yields are expected to be down from last year's bumper levels. Crop potential was affected in many parts by drought conditions earlier in the season, and recent heavy rainfalls, particularly in the south of the United Kingdom and Germany, are hampering crop maturation and harvesting leading to concerns of further loss of yield and crop quality. The bulk of the reduction in this year's cereal output is in wheat, which is now forecast at about 95.5 million tons, slightly less than expected earlier and some 4 million tons down from last year. The aggregate coarse grain crop is forecast to fall only marginally to about 104 million tons from 105 million tons in 1996.
Prospects for the 1997 cereal crops remain unchanged from the last report. Cereal crop production will be well below potential but somewhat up from the previous year. Output of wheat is forecast at about 340 000 to 350 000 tons compare to just 316 000 tons in 1996. Of this amount however, only a small portion is expected to enter the domestic market with the bulk remaining in the hands of the producers for their own consumption, as animal feed, or for seed for the next crop. As a result, the country will continue to rely heavily on wheat imports in the current 1997/98 marketing year to meet its needs for its staple bread production, especially in urban areas and for upland rural populations. After difficulties meeting wheat requirements in the previous year, fulfilling wheat import needs will remain a critical issue in 1997/98. While the level of wheat and wheat flour imports through the port of Durres is reported to have increased somewhat in June, imports remained well below monthly requirements and the major flour mills are not operating. Furthermore, because of the small size of imported wheat shipments, handling costs are relatively high and this is being reflected in high consumer prices.
Early indications for the winter wheat crop to be sown this autumn point to a further recovery in planted area if farmers can realize their intentions. However, improving output will largely depend on ensuring increased availability of high quality seeds at planting time.
Agricultural production continues to recover as a result of
gradual normalization of the economic and marketing
activities coupled with better availability and lower cost of
inputs. The outlook for the 1997 wheat crop remains
favourable and aggregate output could rise by 4 percent to
328 000 tons. This is entirely due to better yields in the
SRPSKA republic while in BiH Federation, which has no
comparative advantage in wheat production, production is
expected to fall reflecting lower planting and yields. The
area sown to maize is expected to increase sharply in both
republics in response to the gradual recovery of the
livestock industry and disruption of industrial activities.
Provided normal weather conditions prevail, output of maize
is forecast to rise sharply. Production of potatoes is also
likely to continue its upwards trend.
The food security situation has improved but there remains a
large structural deficit in wheat, the major staple. In
1997/98 the wheat import requirement is tentatively forecast
at some 265 000 tons, mainly for the BiH Federation. This is
24 percent higher than in the previous year. The increase
reflects the larger consumption needs following a 10 percent
increase in the resident population and the lower forecast
output in the BiH Federation which, together, have more than
compensated the reduction in wheat consumption requirements
per caput.
WFP is targeting 1.5 million people (war-affected people,
including refugees and IDPs) with relief food distributions.
WFP food needs for this population are 46 000 tons for the
period 1 August-31 December 1997, of which the outstanding
requirement is 21 000 tons with a value of U.S.$ 11 million.
Prospects for the 1997 cereal crop have improved somewhat
over the past few weeks. Results of the winter grain harvest
so far point to higher yields than earlier expected, and the
arrival of scattered rain showers in the second half of July
improved moisture availability for developing summer crops
which had been stressed by earlier dry conditions. By 20
July, it was reported that one-third of the winter wheat crop
had been harvested with an average yield of about 3.25 tons
per hectare. It is still too early to accurately estimate the
final outcome of the wheat harvest as any deterioration of
weather conditions could affect the crops still in the
ground, and yields vary greatly from region to region.
However, it is likely that the final output of the wheat
harvest will be well above earlier expectations at from 3.5
to 4.0 million tons, which will greatly reduce, if not
completely alleviate, the need for imports in the current
marketing year.
The l997 cereal harvest could be larger than last year. The
area sown to grains has increased sharply due to the
reintegration of territories not previously accessible.
Growing conditions for the wheat crop have been mixed but
lower wheat yields have been partially offset by the 20
percent increase in the area sown to 250 000 hectares and
output is officially estimated at 884 000 tons, 19 percent
more than last year. This is adequate to cover domestic
needs. The outlook for spring grains is satisfactory to date.
The Government has also provided funding for the spring
sowing campaign, to assist state and private farmers to
purchase fuel, fertilizer and agro-chemicals.
Heavy rainfall since early July has caused severe flooding in
eastern parts of the country. It is estimated that some
130 000 hectares of agricultural land have been washed out in
the worst hit localities, and the heavy rains have led to
crop lodging and harvest delays throughout a larger area. The
latest official forecast of the 1997 cereal crop in June,
before the heavy rain and flooding, put output at nearly 7
million tons. Although, it is still too early to accurately
assess the full extent of the damage, indications are that
losses could be in the region of between 500 000 tons to 1
million tons. The Government has reported that it does not
expect any significant shortfall in the domestic market
overall, as the country has sufficient reserves to offset a
reduced harvest. However, it is reported that some
provisional measures are being made should any significant
increase in imports be required. In addition, the Government
is organizing compensation for farmers affected by the
disaster to ensure production will be maintained in the
coming year.
The area sown to cereals has declined slightly but growing
conditions have been mostly satisfactory to date and the 1997
grain harvest could reach 600 000 tons, remaining close to
last year�s good level. On the whole, soils are fairly poor
and the country has little comparative advantage in grain
production. Although some recovery in input use and the
adoption of better technologies could result in increased
productivity, this is expected to take time. Demand for food
is showing signs of recovery but excess capacity in the
livestock industry keeps demand for grain and farm incomes
low.
FORMER YUGOSLAV REPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA (1
August)
Prospects for the 1997 cereal harvest are satisfactory and
output is expected to recover from the drought-reduced level
last year to around 550 000 to 600 000 tons.
Heavy rains in July have hampered wheat harvesting but
improved conditions for the developing maize crop. Although
the harvesting delays are only moderate so far, the quality
of the wheat crop is likely to be affected by the damp
conditions and the ratio of high quality bread wheat to feed
wheat is expected to be lower than normal. The latest
official forecast of the 1997 wheat output is 5 million tons,
well up from the reduced crop of 3.9 million tons in 1996.
Following the recent rains, prospects for the summer maize
crop have improved and output is now expected to at least
equal last year's good crop of 6 million tons.
The outlook is mixed. The 1997 grain crops have benefited
from favourable moisture conditions this year and good yields
can be expected from winter grains. Higher grain prices in
1995/96 and 1996/97 have increased farmers ability to auto-
finance production. Some increase in fertilizer use and
agricultural credit for viable concerns could also benefit
yields. However, the livestock industry remains in recession
and is likely to come under further pressure this year
following the extension of the Baltics Free Trade Agreement
to agricultural produce originating in the region. As retail
food prices tend to be lower in the neighbouring countries,
this could adversely affect farmers� incentives to maximize
spring grain production.
The early outlook for the 1997 grain harvest remains
satisfactory. Planting of spring grains has been completed
under good conditions and the area sown has increased. The
aggregate area sown to grains for harvest in 1997 is
officially estimated to have increased by 4 percent to 1.16
million hectares. However, crop yields in 1997 are expected
to be somewhat lower than last year. Aggregate output is
officially projected to be between 2.6 million tons and 2.8
million tons, remaining close to last year�s level. Returns
to farmers are likely to come under pressure following the
removal of the subsidy on food wheat purchased under state
determined quotas, and the substantial stocks of flour and
livestock products which have accumulated.
Heavy rains and flooding in July have delayed harvesting and
caused significant crop losses in the worst affected southern
areas. Latest estimates indicate that some 120 000 hectares
of cereals have been destroyed which, based on average yield
expected, could cut the potential 1997 harvest by some
500 000 to 1 million tons, mainly spring wheat and barley
and, to a lesser extent, rye. However, earlier potential of
the crops was pointing to another good harvest, and even
accounting for the recent losses, the latest official
forecast in August puts the 1997 cereal output at about 24.5
million tons, compared to 25 million tons in 1996. The
government has said that there should be no risk of grain
shortages in the current year as, even after the expected
losses, the aggregate 1997 cereal output would still be a
good level and a high level of reserves are currently being
held by the state's Agriculture Market Agency (ARR) and grain
wholesalers.
Prospects for the 1997 cereal crop have deteriorated somewhat
following heavy rains and flooding in early August. Latest
official forecasts put the 1997 wheat cop at 6.9 million
tons, down from the earlier anticipated 7.1 million tons.
However, if weather conditions do not improve rapidly for the
remainder of the harvest, losses could be much greater.
Nevertheless, wheat output is unlikely to fall as low as last
year�s much reduced crop of 3.1 million tons and the
country�s grain supply situation should improve somewhat in
the current marketing year.
Prospects for the 1997 cereal crop have deteriorated
following heavy rains and flooding in July. It is reported
that about 4-5 percent of the cereal crop was flooded as of
July 24 with the Trnava region in south-east Slovakia the
worst hit. Before the wet weather struck, the 1997 cereal
harvest was estimated at somewhat over 3.6 million tons, an
increase of some 10 percent over 1996. The full consequence
of the damage on average cereal yields is not yet known but
it is unlikely that the early above average levels will be
achieved and output will fall below earlier expectations.
Prospects for the 1997 cereal harvest are satisfactory and
cereal output is expected to be similar to last year's level
of about 500 000 tons.
YUGOSLAVIA, FED. REP. OF (SERBIA AND
MONTENEGRO)* (11 August)
Despite heavy rain and hailstorms in June and the first ten
days in July which slowed the harvest and reduced grain
quality, the 1997 wheat harvest is forecast at 2.8 million
tons. This is substantially larger than last year in response
to better average yields and the sharp increase in the area
sown to wheat, which increased by over 200 000 hectares to
818 000 hectares.