A bumper cereal harvest is expected, despite some crop damage by heavy rains in June. The availability of seed, fertilizer and micro-credit for producers has improved this year and liberalization of the grain/bread production and distribution chain have provided good incentives to increase production. Official information on the areas sown (and cereal production in 1996) is very conflicting but there is agreement that the area sown to wheat has increased sharply. Relative prices have encouraged farmers to plant wheat at the expense of fruit and vines. The area ploughed in the winter for sowing to grain increased by at least 50 000 hectares and growing conditions for winter crops have been significantly better than last year. Early official forecasts indicate that the 1997 harvest of winter grains (mainly wheat) reached 400 000 tons, largely surpassing last year�s record of 177 000 tons. Output of maize is also expected to increase.
The 1997 wheat harvest is expected to cover over 50 percent of domestic demand, pointing to a sharp reduction in imports of cereals in 1997/98. Food aid pledges for 1997/98 amount to just over 100 000 tons and the balance, estimated at 300 000 tons, is expected to be imported commercially.
GDP and agricultural production is recovering, after very sharp falls in the early nineties, but the processing infrastructure remains a major bottleneck to expansion. Unemployment remains high and there continues to be a need for food aid for targeted distribution to the most vulnerable populations, including refugees and internally displaced. WFP's target group for relief assistance has been reduced from 300 000 to 120 000 beneficiaries, with a further 50 000 people expected to benefit from Food-for-Work activities. WFP's food pipeline is only secured until mid-October and an additional 12 000 tons (approximately U.S.$ 5.3 million) will be needed to permit a continuation of food distributions to mid-1998.