The short dry summer period known as “la canicula” has started with some anticipation, negatively affecting the recently planted 1997/98 first season cereal and bean crops. The phenomenon is allegedly attributed to “El Niño”. A detailed assessment of damage has not yet been made, but maize production should decrease from last year's above- average 333 000 tons to about 280 000 to 300 000 tons. The outlook is uncertain for the sorghum crop, while a below- average paddy output is expected.
Wheat imports in marketing year 1997/98 (July/June) are forecast to increase from last year's receipts of 110 000 tons to about 120 000 tons. Maize imports should increase from 25 000 tons to some 90 000 tons, reflecting the strong domestic demand and the need to cover crop losses. Rice imports in 1997 (January/December) should remain similar to 1996 receipts of 41 000 tons, despite large carryover stocks.