A recent FAO/WFP Mission to the country found that the 1997 “Gu” season started early in most parts of Somalia, being favourable for rainfed crop establishment. The main sorghum and maize producing areas, located in the south, received above average rains at the beginning of the season (late March - April), but declined to below-normal levels in May - to pick up again in June and early July. Cropped area declined by 6 percent over last year’s “Gu” season, to 423 000 hectares; this is still 17 percent below the pre- strife average (1982-88) of 512 000 hectares. Yields remained at low levels due to moisture stress at the critical point of moisture requirements and uncontrolled pests and diseases as well as lack of inputs, particularly fertilizers and high- yielding seeds.
Total sorghum and maize production of the “Gu” season in 1997 is forecast at 241 000 tons, similar to last year’s level of 242 000 tons. Of this estimated total, 123 000 tons account for sorghum and 118 000 tons for maize. Comparing the current “Gu” season with that of 1996, there are considerable variations in regional performance. Significant improvements, generally both for sorghum and maize, have been achieved in Lower and Middle Shabelle, Lower and Middle Juba, Gedo and Hiran, although, in some cases, there are great differences between districts. Major declines in production are anticipated for Bay and Bakool regions; production is also expected to be lower in the North-west region, where harvesting will take place in October. Five districts are particularly at risk of food shortage and will need special assistance: two in Bay region (Baidoa and Bur Hakaba), two in Bakool region (Xuddur and Tieglow) and one in Hiran (Bulo Burti). An assessment of the number of people mostly affected by serious food shortages and with limited coping alternatives in these districts was not yet completed at the time of the Mission.
Countrywide, the picture of access to food, as influenced by market prices, varies considerably by commodity and region. Retail prices for sorghum and maize, which had sharply increased over the past year, declined with the harvest, but started to rise again in the first week of August. Overall, local quality goat and cattle prices declined significantly.
Assuming a normal 1997/98 “Der” season production of 95 000 tons of sorghum and maize (to be harvested in January- February 1998), the total cereal deficit for the marketing year August 1997/July 1998 is estimated at 247 000 tons, of which 215 000 tons are forecast to be imported commercially. This would leave a cereal food aid requirement of 32 000 tons. WFP’s current food aid planning for Somalia over the next 12 months envisages the provision of some 14 000 tons of cereals. The European Union’s intention to monetize 9 000 tons of cereals through local traders in Ethiopia’s Region 5, adjacent to Somalia’s severe deficit areas, is expected to have a spill-over effect in the latter country. Since prospective food aid from other sources will be minimal, a considerable uncovered food aid gap will remain and the consequences of a deteriorating food supply position will emerge later in the marketing year, unless appropriate remedial actions are immediately taken. The distribution of food continues to be hampered by security problems.