A very good harvest is expected this year in response to increased areas sown to wheat, good growing conditions and somewhat better availability of inputs provided through assistance programmes. The harvest is underway. Reflecting very varied farming conditions, the yield of winter wheat on farms supplied with inputs, range from 5 tons per hectare on good irrigated land and 0.9 tons per hectare on saline, poor soils. Given that an increasing amount of irrigated land is being diverted from cotton to wheat, and that the aggregate area sown to grain crops is estimated to have risen, the 1997 grain harvest is tentatively forecast at 600 000 tons, compared to 400 000 tons last year.
Provided this harvest forecast materializes, the cereal import requirement in 1997/98 could fall to about 250 000 tons. Against this requirement, 35 000 tons of programme food aid have already been pledged. In addition the country will need humanitarian food aid for targeted distribution to vulnerable populations, and this requirement is expected to remain substantial in view of the rampant poverty after years of economic decline and intermittent civil strife.
Some 705 000 particularly vulnerable people continue to need targeted humanitarian assistance. These include populations displaced as a result of civil strife, elderly pensioners, war-widows with children, large single-parent families, orphans and the disabled/invalids. WFP provides emergency assistance to 485 000 vulnerable persons while other agencies assist 220 000. Some 15 000 persons also received WFP assistance under food-for-work programmes. WFP estimates that overall 1997 relief food requirement are 46 580 tons, valued at some U.S.$ 22 million, of which WFP would provide about 29 000 tons with a value of U.S.$ 16 million. The remaining quantities are expected to be provided by NGOs under their existing programmes. WFP will continue to coordinate activities with these organizations to ensure that there is no overlap and to maximize coverage of the affected population.