The harvesting of the second season crops is proceeding and production is expected to be lower than last year. Except in a few districts, growing conditions have generally been unfavourable and plantings in the northern part have been adversely affected by insecurity. Given the poor harvest from the first season crops due to erratic rains in some areas and dry weather and/or floods in others, aggregate cereal production is forecast at 1.643 million tons. Rains were late in the eastern, southern and western districts. The outputs of pulses and plantains are also forecast to decline. Only production of root crops is expected to show a marginal increase, but the widespread infestation of Cassava Mosaic Virus poses a serious problem.
Domestic prices have declined in recent weeks despite the expected fall in production. The decline, however, is unlikely to be sustained as prices may be reacting only temporarily to the arrival on the market of new supplies from the new second season crop, now being harvested and supplies arriving from across the border with Kenya. The decline in bean prices is particularly significant. Beans are now offered at around Shs. 700 per kilo compared to Shs. 1300 in March. However, the overall food supply situation will remain tight as the expected increase in food production will not be adequate to cover consumption requirements in several areas. An estimated 612 000 persons who were adversely affected by drought/flood, face food shortages as they are unlikely to harvest sufficient quantities of food during the second season of this year. Moreover, the situation remains serious for some 150 000 internally displaced persons in several northern districts due to civil strife.