Harvesting of the 1997 main season “long rains” crop in the unimodal areas of the south and the centre is virtually completed, while that of the “Masika” crops in the bi-modal rainfall areas of the north is well advanced. The output of the “long rains” season, where the bulk of the maize crop is produced, is estimated below normal as a result of a late start of the rainy season, as well as irregular and insufficient precipitation, particularly in central areas. Extensive replanting with short term varieties in these areas did not sufficiently offset the negative impact of the dry weather. By contrast, prospects for the “Masika” crops are generally good, reflecting adequate weather conditions during the season, except in the Lake Victoria basin, where the harvest is anticipated to be poor. The “Vuli” crops, harvested until February in the bi-modal rainfall areas were sharply reduced by prolonged dry weather.
Latest official estimates indicate a 1997 aggregate production of cereals of some 3 million tons, significantly lower than last year’s output. Given this reduced production, there will be a substantial shortfall, currently forecast at 850 000 tons. In addition to substitution with non-cereals foodcrops, much of the deficit is expected to be covered by commercial imports. However, food aid assistance will be required for some 3.6 million people, mainly in the regions of Mara, Shinyanga, Arusha, Dodoma and Tabora, where the crops were reduced and serious food shortages are developing. Prices of maize, rice, sorghum and cassava are currently twice their level of a year ago. The situation of some 400 000 refugees from Burundi and the Democratic Republic of Congo remains a big concern.