FAO/GIEWS: Africa Report - November 1997:

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MADAGASCAR


Area: 582 000 sq.km
Climate: Eastern coast is tropical wet, the rest tropical wet-dry. Rains in October-March; tropical cyclones
Population: 15.72 million (1997 estimate); G.N.P. per caput: U.S.$ 230 (1995)
Specific characteristics of the country: Low-income food-deficit country
Logistics: Dilapidated roads and lack of spare parts and tyres
Major foodcrops: Rice, roots, tubers, maize, fruit
Marketing year: April/March; Lean season: February/March
Share of cereals in total calorie intake: 60 percent


CURRENT SITUATION

An FAO/WFP Mission visited Madagascar in August/September 1997 to assess the damage caused by locusts to crops in the southern part of the country and to evaluate implications for the food supply situation. The Mission found that the southern coastal zone was the area most affected by the combined effect of locusts and poor rainfall, leading to the loss of most of the maize crop and a sharp reduction in the output of other crops such as cassava and sweet potatoes. However, the production shortfall in the southern part of the country has been offset by good harvests in other parts where over 90 percent of national cereal output is produced. Nationally, the Mission estimated the 1997 total cereal harvest at 2.7 million tons, about the same as in 1996. Cassava and sweet potato production were estimated at some 2.83 million tons, down 1.3 percent. Cereal import requirements for the 1997/98 marketing year are forecast at 168 000 tons, three-fourths of which is expected to be supplied through commercial channels and the remainder as food aid. The Mission considered the food supply situation as very precarious in the southern coastal areas and recommended urgent food assistance in the form of food-for-work to an estimated 472 000 people for an initial period of 3 months.



CEREAL SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE FOR THE 1997/98 MARKETING YEAR (in thousand tons)


Wheat

Rice

Coarse grains

Total

Normal Production (rice in paddy terms)

7

2 476

152

2 635

Normal Imports

48

53

10

111

of which: Structural food aid

13

11

10

34

1997/98 Domestic Availability

5

1 727

176

1 908

1997 Production (rice in paddy terms)

5

2 528

176

2 709

1997 Production (rice in milled terms)

5

1 685

176

1 866

Possible stock drawdown

-

42

-

42

1997/98 Utilization

72

1 828

176

2 076

Food Use

71

1 693

141

1 905

of which: local purchase requirement

-

-

-

-

Non-food use

1

135

23

159

Exports or Re-exports

-

-

-

-

Possible stock build up

-

-

12

12

1997/98 Import Requirement

67

101

-

168

Anticipated commercial imports

60

65

-

125

Food aid needs

7

36

-

43

Current Aid Position





Food aid pledges

18

11

6

35

of which: Delivered

2

10

2

14

Estimated Per Caput Consumption (kg/Year)

4

108

9

121

Indexes





1997 production as % of normal:




103

1997/98 import requirement as % of normal:




151

1997/98 food aid requirement as % of normal:




126


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