| 1993/94 | 1994/95 | 1995/96 | 1996/97 | 1997/98
forecast |
Change 1997/98
over 1996/97 |
|
| WORLD PRODUCTION 1/ |
|
(.percentage ) | ||||
| Wheat | 564 | 528 | 547 | 590 | 606 | 2.7 |
| Coarse grains | 809 | 892 | 810 | 912 | 900 | -1.3 |
| Rice, milled | 355 | 362 | 371 | 381 | 381 | 0.1 |
| (paddy) | (529) | (539) | (553) | (568) | (568) | 0.1 |
| All cereals (including milled rice) | 1729 | 1782 | 1729 | 1883 | 1888 | 0.3 |
| Developing countries | 932 | 931 | 960 | 1016 | 1005 | -1.0 |
| Developed countries | 797 | 851 | 770 | 867 | 883 | 1.8 |
| WORLD IMPORTS 2/ | ||||||
| Wheat | 95 | 92 | 93 | 93 | 93 | 0.3 |
| Coarse grains | 84 | 89 | 92 | 87 | 90 | 2.9 |
| Rice (milled) | 17 | 21 | 19 | 18 | 19 | 5.8 |
| All cereals | 195 | 202 | 205 | 198 | 202 | 1.9 |
| Developing countries | 130 | 146 | 150 | 142 | 151 | 5.8 |
| Developed countries | 66 | 56 | 54 | 56 | 51 | -8.1 |
| FOOD AID IN CEREALS 3/ | 13.0 | 9.4 | 7.7 | 4.9 | 5.0 4/ | 2.6 |
| WORLD UTILIZATION | ||||||
| Wheat | 563 | 556 | 564 | 580 | 597 | 2.9 |
| Coarse grains | 841 | 881 | 860 | 892 | 906 | 1.6 |
| Rice (milled) | 359 | 367 | 372 | 380 | 385 | 1.2 |
| All cereals | 1763 | 1804 | 1796 | 1852 | 1888 | 1.9 |
| Developing countries | 1015 | 1052 | 1081 | 1109 | 1127 | 1.7 |
| Developed countries | 747 | 752 | 715 | 743 | 761 | 2.3 |
| Per Caput Food Use | ( . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . kg/year . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .) | |||||
| Developing countries | 170 | 170 | 171 | 172 | 172 | 0.0 |
| Developed countries | 130 | 129 | 129 | 130 | 130 | 0.5 |
| WORLD STOCKS 5/ | ( . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . million tons . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ) | |||||
| Wheat | 147 | 118 | 104 | 111 | 121 | 9.3 |
| Coarse grains | 138 | 147 | 103 | 119 | 105 | -11.4 |
| Rice (milled) | 62 | 55 | 54 | 56 | 52 | -6.8 |
| All cereals | 347 | 320 | 261 | 285 | 278 | -2.4 |
| Developing countries | 172 | 159 | 156 | 161 | 148 | -8.0 |
| Developed countries | 176 | 160 | 106 | 124 | 130 | 4.8 |
| Stocks as % of world | ( . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. percentage . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . .) | |||||
| cereal consumption | 19.3 | 17.8 | 14.1 | 15.1 | 14.8 | |
| EXPORT PRICES 3/ | ( . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . U.S.$/ton . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .) | |||||
| Rice (Thai, 100%, 2nd grade) 1/ | 250 | 289 | 336 | 352 | 329 6/ | -8.6 7/ |
| Wheat (U.S. No.2 Hard Winter) | 143 | 157 | 216 | 183 | 148 8/ | -23.1 7/ |
| Maize (U.S. No.2 Yellow) | 113 | 104 | 159 | 137 | 111 8/ | -37.1 7/ |
| OCEAN FREIGHT RATES 3/ | ||||||
| From U.S. Gulf to Egypt | 15.1 | 19.0 | 16.8 | 12.8 | 14.1 8/ | 19.5 7/ |
| LOW-INCOME FOOD-DEFICIT COUNTRIES 9/ | ( . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . million tons . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .) | |||||
| Roots & tubers production 1/ | 349 | 340 | 358 | 349 | 350 | 0.2 |
| Cereal production 1/ | 864 | 861 | 891 | 943 | 934 | -1.0 |
| Per caput production (kg.) | 253 | 248 | 252 | 263 | 256 | -2.5 |
| Cereal imports 2/ | 62.5 | 72.0 | 77.6 | 63.8 | 68.4 | 7.2 |
| of which: Food aid 3/ | 7.9 | 7.9 | 6.7 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 2.0 |
| Proportion of cereal import | ( . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . percentage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .) | |||||
| covered by food aid | 12.6 | 11.0 | 8.6 | 6.5 | 6.1 | |
SOURCE: FAO Note: Totals and percentages
computed from unrounded data.
1/ Data refer to the calendar year of the first year
shown. 2/ July/June except for rice for which the data refer to the calendar
year of the second year shown. 3/ July/June. 4/ Forecast based on donors’
budgetary allocations and their minimum contributions under the Food Aid
Convention (FAC) 1995. 5/ Stock data are based on aggregate of national
carryover levels at the end of national crop years. 6/ Average of quotations
for January-September 1997. 7/ Change from corresponding period of previous
year for which figures are not shown. 8/ Average of quotations for July-September
1997. 9/ Food deficit countries with per caput income below the level used
by the World Bank to determine eligibility for IDA assistance (i.e. U.S.$
1 395 in 1994), which in accordance with the guidelines and criteria agreed
to by the CFA should be given priority in the allocations of food aid.
