• REVIEW OF 1996/97
• OUTLOOK FOR 1997/98

Global food consumption of cereals (excluding other direct uses, such as alcohol, starches and sweeteners) in 1996/97 is estimated to have increased by 2.1 percent, or 19 million tons, to 936 million tons. At this level, global per caput food consumption, at about 163 kilograms would be slightly above that in 1995/96. All of the increase in food consumption was in the developing countries, due essentially to good 1996 harvests in many parts of Asia and a recovery of output also in Africa.

By far the most significant change in global cereal utilization in 1996/97 involved feed usage, which is estimated to have resumed its expansion and increased by 4 percent, or 25 million tons, to 648 million tons, close to the record set two years earlier. A recovery in the levels of feeding in the developed countries has been largely responsible for this development. Feed use in these countries is estimated to have risen by 22 million tons, or 5.4 percent, from 1995/96. In the United States, in particular, feed use of grains is estimated to have returned to near record levels, increasing by about 21 percent to around 166 million tons. The feeding of grains in the EC has also shown a considerable increase as a result of an easing of internal prices. By contrast, feed use in the CIS has continued to decline because of reduced animal numbers.

WORLD CEREAL UTILIZATION BY USE

	1995/96	1996/97	1997/98 f’cast
	(. . . . . . million tons . . . . . .)
Total utilization
World	1 796	1 852	1 888
Developing countries	1 081	1 109	1 127
Developed countries	715	743	761
Food consumption 1/
World	917	936	950
Developing countries	751	770	782
Developed countries	166	166	168
Feed use
World	623	648	667
Developing countries	215	218	227
Developed countries	408	430	440
Other uses 2/
World	256	267	271
Developing countries	115	120	118
Developed countries	142	147	153

SOURCE: FAO
Note: Total computed from unrounded data.
1/ For direct human consumption.
2/ Other uses include seed, industrial uses and post harvest losses.

Cereal feed use in the developing countries in 1996/97 is also estimated to have increased by 1.4 percent, or 3 million tons, to 218 million tons. Most of the estimated gains in feeding have occurred among the fast growing economies of the Far East, with the exception of the Province of Taiwan which experienced an outbreak of foot and mouth disease. Increased feed use is also estimated in North Africa, where most countries benefited from larger crops in 1996.

Other uses of cereals (including seed, industrial use and post-harvest losses) in 1996/97 are estimated to have reached 267 million tons, some 4 percent, or almost 11 million tons, above the previous year. The continued strong growth in the demand for processed foods and beverages, especially in the developed countries but also in some developing countries, is largely responsible for the higher use of cereals for industrial purposes.

PER CAPUT FOOD CONSUMPTION OF CEREALS

	1995/96	1996/97	1997/98  f’cast
	(. . . . . kg. per head . . . . .)
Developing countries	170.6	172.3	172.2
Developed countries	129.4	129.5	130.1
TOTAL	161.4	162.8	162.9
Low-income food-deficit countries  (exclud. China and India)	174.0	175.8	175.6
	(151.8)	(152.9)	(152.1)
Wheat	69.8	69.8	70.5
Coarse grains	33.1	33.7	33.2
Rice (milled)	58.5	59.3	59.1

SOURCE: FAO 

WORLD CEREAL UTILIZATION BY GRAIN

	1995/96	1996/97	1997/98 f’cast
	( . . . . . millions tons . . . . . )
WHEAT
Developing countries	324	332	342
Developed countries	240	248	254
World	564	580	597
Food	396	402	411
Feed	92	101	104
Other uses 1/	76	77	82
COARSE
GRAINS
Developing countries	402	415	418
Developed countries	458	477	488
World	860	892	906
Food	188	194	194
Feed	522	539	554
Other uses 1/	150	158	158
RICE (milled)
Developing countries	355	362	367
Developed countries	17	18	18
World	372	380	385
Food	332	340	345
Feed	9	8	9
Other uses 1/	31	32	31

SOURCE: FAO
Note: Total computed from unrounded data.
1/ Other uses include seed industrial uses and post-harvest losses.

The largest change in global cereal utilization in 1997/98 is expected in feed use, which is forecast to rise by about 3 percent, or 19 million tons, to 667 million tons, a record level, and about 4 percent above the long-term trend. The strongest growth is expected to occur among the developing countries, where feed use is forecast to expand by over 4 percent, or 9 million tons, to 227 million tons. The bulk of the increase is anticipated in the Far East, primarily in China, in spite of a reduction in the estimate for maize production in 1997, and in South America, due largely to a bumper maize crop in Argentina.

Feed use in developed countries, which accounts for two-thirds of the world total, is forecast to continue to expand in 1997/98, by over 2 percent, or 10 million tons, to 440 million tons. Bumper coarse grain crops and lower prices are likely to encourage greater use of grains for animal feed in the EC and the United States. Feed use of coarse grains in these countries is estimated at 104 million tons and 169 million tons respectively, together accounting for over 40 percent of the global total. For the first time since the early 1990s, feed use in the CIS is forecast to stop falling and it may even increase slightly from the previous season. Bumper crops in Belarus, the Russian Federation and the Ukraine are expected to raise feed usage in these republics.

Other uses of cereals in 1997/98 are forecast to be largely unchanged at the world level. While industrial uses of cereals are likely to continue to expand in most developed and many developing countries, post-harvest losses may decline in the developing countries, in absolute terms, in line with lower output estimated for 1997.