The sowing of winter grains, mostly wheat and barley crops, is underway and it is too early to give an indication of production prospects for the 1998 crops. However, planting may be hampered in the eight northern provinces, due mainly to ongoing fighting. As these northern provinces together comprise some 40 percent of the country’s irrigated cereal and about 53 percent of its rainfed area, a decline of the 1997/98 production is expected if security conditions do not improve in the coming months. Low to moderate numbers of adults and perhaps a few small groups or swarmlets of desert locusts may appear in the extreme south and lay in areas of recent rainfall. The FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission that visited the country last June/July estimated the 1997 total cereal production at 3.66 million tons, comprising 2.71 million tons of wheat, 0.4 million tons of rice, 0.3 million tons of maize and 0.25 million tons of barley. The 1997 harvest, which is 18 percent higher than the previous year’s, is the largest since 1978. This was mainly due to a good growing season in most areas (including the north). Rainfall was above average and rains were well distributed, although some flooding occurred in localized areas.

The food situation is tight in some localized areas. Food and fuel prices were reported to be very high in the whole Badakshan region since September, mainly due to an extremely difficult access. Bamyan in North-Central of the country, a traditional deficit area, is critically short of basic foods as a result of closure of access routes from the north and the south. This region has been additionally affected by floods in the spring and by frost and heavy rain. WFP has recently issued an appeal to the Taliban to allow food aid deliveries to Bamyan.

Imports of cereals in 1997/98 are forecast at 710 000 tons, the same as last year. Emergency food aid in 1997/98 is estimated at 170 000 tons, including 150 000 tons of cereals. Afghanistan signed a contract to buy 600 000 tons of wheat from Pakistan, and to ease flour price, 50 000 tons of this sale will be transported to Afghanistan each month.