The 1997 output of cereals is provisionally estimated by FAO to be at least 330 000 tons, despite localized crop damage by floods and hail. This outcome is close to last year’s good harvest as somewhat lower yields have been offset by a sharp increase in the area sown, which reached 200 000 hectares by official estimation. Winter wheat plantings rose 13 percent in response to price incentives, and the leasing of an additional 16 000 hectares of state land to farmers. FAO’s estimate of production is higher (by 10 percent) than official estimation as a sample survey of production on the private farms in 1996 provided clear evidence of substantial underreporting of the yield of wheat. With regard to other foodstuffs, output of potatoes and vegetables could remain close to last year’s level but that of fruit and grapes has most probably declined due to hail damage.
In 1997/98, domestic cereal utilization is estimated at about 672 000 tons, including 445 000 tons for food consumption for a population of about 3 million, feed (148 000 tons) and seed and other uses (79 000 tons). Against this requirement domestic production of cereals (excluding pulses) is estimated at 332 000 tons, leaving an import requirement of 340 000 tons, mainly wheat. Against this requirement, 54 000 tons of food aid has been pledged to date, and most of the balance is expected to be imported commercially. However, some 400 000 people continue to be in need of humanitarian assistance. Of these, WFP is targeting 140 000 people for take-home relief rations and 80 000 people through food-for-work. For 1998, the needs for these activities are estimated at some 20 000 tons. With carryover stocks estimated at 3 000 tons, donors are urged to make contributions against the 1998 shortfall of 17 000 tons. NGOs are also providing targeted food assistance